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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 997794 times)
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change08
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« Reply #750 on: May 11, 2009, 01:27:56 pm »

Arizona (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 6)Sad

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/arizona/toplines/toplines_john_mccain_and_arizona_may_6_2009

That's suprising... So much for it being in swing state territory. Or is that just sour grapes that their senator lost or something?
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Zarn
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« Reply #751 on: May 11, 2009, 01:37:15 pm »

Actually, McCain is not overwhelmingly popular in AZ right now. He does have enough, support, however.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #752 on: May 11, 2009, 06:04:47 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?
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War on Want
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« Reply #753 on: May 11, 2009, 07:05:20 pm »

Arizona (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 6)Sad

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/arizona/toplines/toplines_john_mccain_and_arizona_may_6_2009
This isn't as terrible as it seems. I think this confirms Arizona could be a swing state almost on the level of North Carolina and the state's demographics still have 4 years to change.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #754 on: May 11, 2009, 08:16:39 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.
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change08
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« Reply #755 on: May 12, 2009, 03:50:45 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

More PrObama than Rhode Island it seems on the map, lol.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #756 on: May 12, 2009, 05:24:55 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

More PrObama than Rhode Island it seems on the map, lol.

Sometimes it depends upon who took the last poll. I rounded a 65% to 70% for North Carolina, and Rhode Island hasn't been polled for a long time.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #757 on: May 12, 2009, 05:37:04 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

...and Arizona looks way too anti-Obama. Sometimes polls are wrong.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #758 on: May 12, 2009, 05:41:04 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

More PrObama than Rhode Island it seems on the map, lol.

Sometimes it depends upon who took the last poll. I rounded a 65% to 70% for North Carolina, and Rhode Island hasn't been polled for a long time.

Why are you rounding?
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Calvin and Hobbes
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« Reply #759 on: May 12, 2009, 06:48:39 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

I am. I'll move for this!!!!!!!!!!
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Rowan
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« Reply #760 on: May 13, 2009, 06:38:25 pm »

CBSNews

Approve 63%(-5%)
Disapprove 26%(+3%)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_obama_051309.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #761 on: May 14, 2009, 12:54:04 pm »

Today we have

California (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 12)Sad

59% Approve (Lol)
39% Disapprove (Lol)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/california/toplines/toplines_california_budget_crisis_may_12_2009

Missouri (Democracy Corps (D), 800 LV, April 28-30)Sad

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/a-carnahan-advantage-in-missouri-senate-race/?section=Survey
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #762 on: May 14, 2009, 01:39:17 pm »

FOX News:

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

The large partisan divide on Obama's performance continues: 93 percent of Democrats approve compared to 23 percent of Republicans. For independents, 57 percent approve.

Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from May 12 to May 13. The poll has a 3-point error margin.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520210,00.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #763 on: May 14, 2009, 08:04:11 pm »

Maryland is now the largest state in electoral votes still unpolled -- not that anyone expects any surprises.

More interesting? Mississippi and Nebraska. Maybe Nevada.
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Vepres
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« Reply #764 on: May 14, 2009, 08:15:58 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

...and Arizona looks way too anti-Obama. Sometimes polls are wrong.

Perhaps, but the Phoenix metropolitan area is more conservative than say Denver or Las Vegas. Also, could there be some bitterness among Republican and Independent Arizonans over their favorite son's loss in the election?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #765 on: May 15, 2009, 12:00:18 am »

New Jersey (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 12)Sad

64% Approve
36% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/toplines/toplines_new_jersey_governor_may_12_2009
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #766 on: May 15, 2009, 12:04:04 am »

Omaha, NE Obama approval (Wiese Research Associates)Sad

Img


http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2798&u_sid=10634401
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #767 on: May 15, 2009, 05:59:04 am »


Perhaps, but the Phoenix metropolitan area is more conservative than say Denver or Las Vegas. Also, could there be some bitterness among Republican and Independent Arizonans over their favorite son's loss in the election?

That could be.

But one interesting poll is out, and even though it applies to only one congressional district, that district actually has one meaningful electoral vote: NE-02, or Greater Omaha. That was the shakiest single electoral vote for Obama, and it can be discussed:



... even if it doesn't show.

NE-01, eastern Nebraska other than Omaha (largest city: Lincoln) could be interesting. Nebraska will likely split its electoral votes again in 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #768 on: May 15, 2009, 08:03:50 am »
« Edited: May 15, 2009, 02:35:44 pm by pbrower2a »

This map, unlike previous ones, WILL show results for Nebraska and Maine, states that by law can split their electoral votes. Except in an utter disaster for Obama, Maine will not split its electoral votes; Nebraska barely did in 2008. Now that someone has polled NE-02, Obama's shakiest win in 2008, this map supersedes earlier ones: 




Obama's positive approval rating in Greater Omaha (NE-02) is stronger than his bare margin of  November 2008. It looks as if an election were to be held today between Obama and a generic GOP nominee (which could in theory still be John McCain), then Obama would win handily. He would win everything that he won in 2008 (I assume that he would win the District of Columbia, Maryland, Maine, Vermont, Hawaii, and Nevada, all of which were far beyond question after the 2008 election). 

I have rounded the results for North Carolina down (65% as "6" instead of "7").

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« Reply #769 on: May 15, 2009, 08:51:09 am »

Do you seriously think Obama would get 65% in an election in North Carolina?

Roll Eyes
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #770 on: May 15, 2009, 08:58:13 am »

Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 




Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #771 on: May 15, 2009, 08:59:57 am »

Do you seriously think Obama would get 65% in an election in North Carolina?

Roll Eyes

Absolutely not. 55%, tops. An approval rating does not translate smoothly into voting.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #772 on: May 15, 2009, 01:35:51 pm »

Missouri (Democracy Corps (D), 800 LV, April 28-30)Sad

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/a-carnahan-advantage-in-missouri-senate-race/?section=Survey

And that coming from a sample which is 17% liberal; 32% moderate; and 46% conservative [according to the 2008 exits, they comprised 19%, 45% and 36%, respectively]
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Devilman88
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« Reply #773 on: May 15, 2009, 01:50:35 pm »

PPP NC Poll

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%
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change08
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« Reply #774 on: May 15, 2009, 02:32:48 pm »

PPP NC Poll

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%

Eventhough PPP is a dem leaning company, those are still pretty good numbers for NC.
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