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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1002484 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #775 on: May 16, 2009, 01:57:57 pm »

Do you seriously think Obama would get 65% in an election in North Carolina?

Roll Eyes

Absolutely not. 55%, tops. An approval rating does not translate smoothly into voting.

More like 52%.  The last Democrat to break 55% in NC was Carter in 1976.  Only 1 Democrat has broken 45% since then, and that was Obama last year.
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Alcon
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« Reply #776 on: May 16, 2009, 02:54:10 pm »

Just for the record, the City of Omaha isn't contiguous with NE-2.  It's only about 2/3 of the district.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #777 on: May 16, 2009, 04:21:07 pm »

Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 




Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 







LOL

I'm with Fezzy now. It's amazing how much bull you spew in each of your posts, yet you come off as almost intelligent.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #778 on: May 16, 2009, 06:39:55 pm »

I know my limitations, as shown in that map. I look at the approval rating, which I consider more significant than how Obama did in 2008. In relatively few States, the most recent poll suggests that Obama has popularity in the 50-60% range. That stands to be more relevant in 2012 than what Obama did in 2008. In 2008 Obama won or lost on his promises; in 2012 he runs on his record because he will have no chance to run from his record.  If Obama has an approval rating of 55% in Kentucky, then unless the GOP has strong ties to the area, Obama wins, and getting crushed there in 2008 won't matter in 2012. 

I look at the current positive rating for Obama, and if it is below 50% I give a marked edge to the Republican nominee, but it won't be large enough to suggest that Obama will get creamed there as he was in 2008. If Obama has an approval rating below 45% in a state and it is negative, then the state will go into "Strong Republican". Not even Oklahoma fits that category yet (and any state that as right-wing in its leanings as Oklahoma will not likely be close in 2012) .  I have good cause to believe that Obama will win Arizona, but right now the technique assigns Arizona to the Republicans, just as it now assigns Tennessee to Obama. A switch in those two will hardly surprise me. Perhaps many Arizonans have the hope that John McCain will be the GOP nominee in 2012.

Obama has very slight positive ratings in Utah, Georgia, and South Carolina -- but I have no cause to believe that Obama will win any of them should nothing change.  I assign them as "slight Republican", suggesting that the Republican will win those states by minuscule margins.  Obama can win Utah under some freakish circumstances, but it's too early for me to predict any freakish circumstances.

OK -- so how can I project Obama victories in Louisiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky for now?  The positive ratings are significant, and I choose to consider them more significant than the 2008 election. Arkansas would be in the same group -- except that Huckabee could be the GOP nominee for VP, and that makes Arkansas too difficult to predict... for now.

South Dakota? The current strong positive is more powerful than the 2008 result. Such is the rule.

Now, as for states not yet polled....

Does anyone now think that if Obama does well in New Hampshire, that he won't do exceedingly well in Maine and Vermont in 2012 as in 2008? Does anyone expect Obama to not do well in Maryland or Dee Cee? Neighboring states that are politically analogous suggest that nothing will change.  Hawaii has no neighboring state, so I use its 2008 results.  The same is true of Alaska, so I must assume that it will vote in 2012 as in 2008 until I see indications to the contrary. Idaho? Wyoming? They are more analogous to each other than to any other states -- even Utah. If polls in either state suggest that they give Obama about the same level of support as Utah, then I reduce them.

Montana and especially North Dakota have a good analogue in South Dakota, and my model calls them toss-ups until I see otherwise. I haven't shown as much certitude on Nevada; even though it voted for Obama by a double-digit margin, that was a shock on November 4, 2008; I attribute that to the mortgage meltdown which won't be repeated. I can easily put Nevada into the "Strong Obama" category with any poll that shows an approval rating above 55%.

Now -- swing states of 2008. Colorado is in the weak Obama category because of a very thin positive poll and its 2008 performance. An earlier poll was more positive, but I go with the more recent one.  Such is the rule. An average of 2008 performance and the most recent polls put Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri (which Obama lost -- barely), and Indiana   into the "Weak Obama" category. Ohio goes into the strong zone, as do Iowa and New Hampshire. Swing states of 2008 will be very interesting for a very long time in 2012.

Finally -- Nebraska. NE-02 (Greater Omaha) barely barely voted for Obama, but support for Obama in that district is about ten points higher. NE-01 is more  GOP-leaning, but not that much more, so I could just as easily color it "Barely Republican" as "Barely Democratic". Eastern Nebraska is much like western Iowa. As you will see I couldn't call it a tossup in my map because I colored the toss-ups white, and that would make NE-01 disappear.

Nebraska is politically between Kansas (my scheme shows it "Barely Republican" and South Dakota "Barely Obama"). That suggests a toss-up. NE-03 of course is one of the most right-wing districts in America; it would vote for a liberal Democrat only against a madman, commie, fascist, or KKK member.

Nobody knows who the Republican nominee will be, and that will decide to no small extent which states Obama will win and which ones he will lose. If it's Huckabee, then Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and likely Georgia are off limits to Obama; political culture matters greatly.  Positive ratings for Obama just won't be enough for him to win those states. If it's Romney, then Obama likely wins all of those states -- and Arkansas. 

Not the big qualification I give: if nothing really changes before 2012. That is a huge assumption, as all sorts of weird events can transpire. One thing is certain: nobody knows who the GOP nominee will be.  I can imagine Obama picking off Utah against Huckabee and losing it by a 75-25 margin to Romney. I can still imagine one of the GOP candidates dropping out early and running on the Reform ticket, which really messes things up.

Above all else, Obama could still fail as President. There's plenty of time for that. There's plenty of time for a nutty leader in Iran or North Korea to do something incredibly stupid and cruel. The Big Three automakers could go bankrupt, and subsidized banks could fail. It is conceivable that some natural disaster could catch Obama off guard and overtax his abilities as Hurricane Katrina showed how incompetent Dubya was. The Stock Market could conceivably go to 2000. It's also possible that America could undergo a new Religious Revival that causes Americans to support a strident anti-abortion, pro-business, anti-environmentalist, anti-union candidate who rides such a tide.  All of those are possible, and I can imagine many Americans seeking to renew their passports if such happens. Likely? Probably not. It's also possible that Usama bin Laden ends up in US custody -- or that we get to see his cadaver somewhere.

Some of my choices are arbitrary -- and they are on the margin. Look at Utah.  They show the limitations of my knowledge -- limitations that everyone has. My assumption that on the net nothing happens to change things is an average of the possibilities is itself a whopper of an assumption.   



 
 
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Rowan
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« Reply #779 on: May 17, 2009, 12:43:40 pm »

CA-8 SurveyUSA

Approve 84%
Disapprove 13%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2328c94e-0f2f-4290-9293-7d4f2e11cd74
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #780 on: May 17, 2009, 01:04:29 pm »


Why?  Just why?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #781 on: May 17, 2009, 01:05:51 pm »


Because it is San Francisco and Obama got 85% there ?
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #782 on: May 17, 2009, 01:07:59 pm »


Alas, my question was not one of despair, but of bewilderment.  Who in the world blows their money on a poll for San Francisco?
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Rowan
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« Reply #783 on: May 17, 2009, 01:09:26 pm »

Gallup

Approve 63%(-2)
Disapprove 30%(+2)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #784 on: May 17, 2009, 01:13:43 pm »


Alas, my question was not one of despair, but of bewilderment.  Who in the world blows their money on a poll for San Francisco?

The poll actually has some news:

Republicans and Independents don't like Pelosi in her own district.
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #785 on: May 17, 2009, 01:26:13 pm »


Alas, my question was not one of despair, but of bewilderment.  Who in the world blows their money on a poll for San Francisco?

The poll actually has some news:

Republicans and Independents don't like Pelosi in her own district.

That's suprising, I thought Republicans were totally in love with Speaker Pelosi.
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Alcon
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« Reply #786 on: May 17, 2009, 03:58:02 pm »

Obama's approval rating is +26 among San Francisco Republicans, and Schwarzenegger's is -7.  Funny.  Tiny sample but weird.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #787 on: May 18, 2009, 12:36:05 am »

A new Mason-Dixon Nevada poll will be out soon.

But I don't know how reliable Mason-Dixon is after showing only a 4-point Obama win in Nevada, when he really won it by 13% ...
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Rowan
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« Reply #788 on: May 18, 2009, 04:19:44 pm »

A new Mason-Dixon Nevada poll will be out soon.

But I don't know how reliable Mason-Dixon is after showing only a 4-point Obama win in Nevada, when he really won it by 13% ...

In all fairness, did anyone get NV right? I remember PPP also had a 4 point spread.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #789 on: May 18, 2009, 04:21:19 pm »

A new Mason-Dixon Nevada poll will be out soon.

But I don't know how reliable Mason-Dixon is after showing only a 4-point Obama win in Nevada, when he really won it by 13% ...

In all fairness, did anyone get NV right? I remember PPP also had a 4 point spread.

Zogby had a 10 point lead on 11/3.
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Rowan
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« Reply #790 on: May 18, 2009, 05:05:40 pm »

New York- Rasmussen

Approve 65%
Disapprove 32%

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Rowan
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« Reply #791 on: May 19, 2009, 05:59:45 am »

CNN

Approve 62%
Disapprove 35%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_national_survey_cnn51415.php
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #792 on: May 19, 2009, 12:39:41 pm »

Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18)Sad

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #793 on: May 19, 2009, 12:40:27 pm »


LOL
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Devilman88
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« Reply #794 on: May 19, 2009, 12:45:24 pm »


Maybe they mixed the numbers up...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #795 on: May 19, 2009, 12:45:41 pm »


Enter BRTD or Snowguy - immediately - to explain why MN has turned into a traitor-state ... !
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« Reply #796 on: May 19, 2009, 12:48:44 pm »

It's called an outlier Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #797 on: May 19, 2009, 01:06:42 pm »

Democracy Corps (D), May 10-12:

Among 1000 2008 voters:

59% Approve
33% Disapprove

Composition of sample: 40% DEM, 32% GOP, 27% IND

Among 852 likely 2010 voters:

58% Approve
33% Disapprove

Composition of sample: 39% DEM, 34% GOP, 27% IND

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/obama-closes-the-democrats-historical-national-security-gap
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #798 on: May 19, 2009, 01:09:50 pm »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon, May 12-14, 625 RV)Sad

55% Favorable
30% Unfavorable

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/may_2009_3_polls.html
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #799 on: May 19, 2009, 03:16:49 pm »


From your link I see that Obama's numbers are 66-33.

You must have mixed them up with Al Franken's and Norm Coleman's approval ratings.
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