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Tender Branson
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« Reply #825 on: May 22, 2009, 12:11:47 am »

Winthrop / ETV Poll of 11 southern states:



49% Approve
38% Disapprove

This Winthrop/ETV Poll was conducted among 955 registered voters from AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, and VA between May 1 and May 17, 2009. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of registered voters in these states. Data utilizing all respondents has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.17 percent. As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error.

http://www.scetv.org/index.php/winthrop/results/10/0/65/
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #826 on: May 22, 2009, 12:33:01 am »

Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 




Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 






That's a very hopeful map for Obama.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #827 on: May 22, 2009, 12:40:14 am »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.
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« Reply #828 on: May 22, 2009, 12:50:00 am »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

Utah at less than 5% margin for Republican - I thought that was just crazy.
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Lunar
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« Reply #829 on: May 22, 2009, 12:52:05 am »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

You're wrong.  If Obama doesn't win all of those [if not more LOL] you can color me surprised.


You can choose the color you want too:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Crayola_crayon_colors
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #830 on: May 22, 2009, 01:54:17 am »
« Edited: May 22, 2009, 01:49:10 pm by pbrower2a »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

That map is already obsolete due to later polls. This is my more recent map, and in it I have exchanged white for yellow because yellow shows electoral votes better than does white:



Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
Yellow -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

For example, Nevada has been polled. It consolidates my assessment that anything that Obama won by 10% or more in 2008 is out of reach, and I need not wait for Maine, Vermont, or Maryland.

A more recent poll for Oklahoma suggests what about everyone reasonably thinks -- that Obama can be defeated there by about a 60-40 margin even if he wins nationwide at a 60-40 spread. I saw a poll for Alabama that gives Obama a 58% approval rating... not that I fully believe it.  But I have cause to believe that a 56% positive rating in Virginia is genuine, as that is close to the vote for Obama in 2008, and that is enough to put Virginia in the "solid Obama" category. West Virginia gave Obama about a 60% approval rating, suggesting that the depiction of Obama as an environmental extremist out to 'punish coal' may be unfounded. If the GOP won on that canard in 2008 and it remains a canard in 2012, then Obama wins West Virginia.

The Alabama poll suggests that some of those surprisingly-high ratings in some of the southeastern and south-central states in which Obama got clobbered in 2008 are genuine.  It's hard for me to believe that Obama is viewed more positively in Alabama than in Georgia -- but such reflects the latest polls. It could be an outlier. But note well -- the "Mid-South" (AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, and TN) is several states that generally move together in recent years. Those states may be easier to figure than Texas, which has no political analogue. Mississippi has yet to be polled, so I guess.

How could Obama be more popular in the South now than on November 4, 2008? He might not be. Those states have a strong heritage of admiration for the military, and they may have voted for McCain because of that heritage. McCain will not be the GOP nominee in 2012, and none of the likely GOP nominees has any military record.

I think that Mike Huckabee picks up all states of the South not on the Atlantic coast, and that if he is a VP candidate, he still wins Arkansas if not all other such states. But he has to get the nomination to do that. Romney and Palin have no connections to the South.

I don't know which to believe about Alabama: the 38% vote for Obama, the recent 48% approval rating, or the current 58% approval rating.  An average suggests a toss-up. Nebraska? At-large, Nebraska was in between South Dakota and Kansas, and the 62% approval rating for NE-02 suggests a gain in NE-01. Districts of Nebraska are shown left-to-right with an increasing number to the right, which is geographically absurd for Nebraska. NE-03 is one of the most right-wing congressional districts in America, and I have it as "Strong (generic) Republican". It offers the surest electoral vote or votes for a generic Republican. NE-01? More GOP-leaning than NE-02, but Nebraska went for McCain only by 13%, and NE-03 went for something like thirty. NE-01 and NE at large are thus undecided.

Of course it looks very hopeful for Obama, suggesting an Eisenhower-scale, if not Reagan-scale or LBJ-scale, landslide in 2012. It suggests that Obama will win everything that he won in 2008 except Colorado at least firmly, and everything that was close. The southern states are daring.

 

 

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The Mikado
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« Reply #831 on: May 22, 2009, 11:01:51 am »

Winthrop / ETV Poll of 11 southern states:



49% Approve
38% Disapprove

This Winthrop/ETV Poll was conducted among 955 registered voters from AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, and VA between May 1 and May 17, 2009. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of registered voters in these states. Data utilizing all respondents has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.17 percent. As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error.

http://www.scetv.org/index.php/winthrop/results/10/0/65/

I see I'm not the only person who defines the "South" as the 11 states of the former Confederacy.  I must say that it always throws me when people refer to KY or MO as "Southern" rather than as "Border States."

(OK is marginal...it was a Confederate territory, after all)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #832 on: May 22, 2009, 01:13:39 pm »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

Utah at less than 5% margin for Republican - I thought that was just crazy.

So do I -- but Obama's most recent approval rating in Utah was above 50%.

Mitt Romney will absolutely crush Obama in Utah even if Obama has a 60% approval rating there. But I can see Obama winning Utah against Huckabee, Palin, or especially Gingrich. The Mormons pay much attention to "family values" -- and so far those of Obama look far better than those of Palin or Gingrich (or for that matter Bill Clinton). As for Huckabee -- he has said some nasty things about the LDS Church, and Obama hasn't.

We don't know who will be the 2012 GOP nominee for President, do we? We don't even know whether there will be a strong third-party candidate, do we?
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« Reply #833 on: May 22, 2009, 01:21:18 pm »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

Utah at less than 5% margin for Republican - I thought that was just crazy.

So do I -- but Obama's most recent approval rating in Utah was above 50%.

Mitt Romney will absolutely crush Obama in Utah even if Obama has a 60% approval rating there. But I can see Obama winning Utah against Huckabee, Palin, or especially Gingrich. The Mormons pay much attention to "family values" -- and so far those of Obama look far better than those of Palin or Gingrich (or for that matter Bill Clinton). As for Huckabee -- he has said some nasty things about the LDS Church, and Obama hasn't.

We don't know who will be the 2012 GOP nominee for President, do we? We don't even know whether there will be a strong third-party candidate, do we?

You're probably being to hopeful there. Huckabee maybe though.
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Rowan
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« Reply #834 on: May 22, 2009, 02:47:31 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #835 on: May 22, 2009, 08:01:11 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #836 on: May 22, 2009, 09:36:46 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #837 on: May 22, 2009, 09:48:01 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #838 on: May 22, 2009, 10:27:10 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat

That may be what my map indicates.  Who runs shapes the voting of individual states, if not regional blocks. I can imagine Utah voters voting for Obama as a protest against someone disrespectful of the LDS Church or the sensibilities of LDS members. Could an active alcoholic  win Utah as a Republican? I think not. Could a serial spouse-cheater win in Utah? Perhaps not. Someone nutty? Utah rejected Goldwater.

Utah is not a difficult state in which to campaign; if it had any chance of voting Democratic in 2008, then Obama's style of campaign would be well suited to the state and he would have been there often. Obama loves publicity and large crowds more easily obtained in big cities and their suburbs than in isolated rural areas.  Utah is easy to get to and get around -- at least between Logan and Provo, an area that contains about 90% of the population. The Salt Lake City television market covers practically the entire state through feeds throughout the state. Obama could make a speech or two supporting religious tolerance while praising Mormon community (they take care of themselves) in Salt Lake City, Ogden, and Provo.

That hardly indicates that Utah becomes a Democratic haven -- far from it. It could be a one-time event. But it does put forth a warning to candidates of all political types: if you want Utah to vote for you, then at the least respect the LDS Church and community or expect to lose Utah!
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Devilman88
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« Reply #839 on: May 22, 2009, 11:04:40 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat

Dude, your hate for Huckabee is blinding your judgement. Also you don't speak for mormons, you just speak for yourself. The fact is Huckabee would kill Obama in Utah and thats the bottom line.
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« Reply #840 on: May 22, 2009, 11:08:03 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat

That may be what my map indicates.  Who runs shapes the voting of individual states, if not regional blocks. I can imagine Utah voters voting for Obama as a protest against someone disrespectful of the LDS Church or the sensibilities of LDS members. Could an active alcoholic  win Utah as a Republican? I think not. Could a serial spouse-cheater win in Utah? Perhaps not. Someone nutty? Utah rejected Goldwater.

Utah is not a difficult state in which to campaign; if it had any chance of voting Democratic in 2008, then Obama's style of campaign would be well suited to the state and he would have been there often. Obama loves publicity and large crowds more easily obtained in big cities and their suburbs than in isolated rural areas.  Utah is easy to get to and get around -- at least between Logan and Provo, an area that contains about 90% of the population. The Salt Lake City television market covers practically the entire state through feeds throughout the state. Obama could make a speech or two supporting religious tolerance while praising Mormon community (they take care of themselves) in Salt Lake City, Ogden, and Provo.

That hardly indicates that Utah becomes a Democratic haven -- far from it. It could be a one-time event. But it does put forth a warning to candidates of all political types: if you want Utah to vote for you, then at the least respect the LDS Church and community or expect to lose Utah!

Indeed. The question is, would Mormons vote for a pro-life, anti-gay marriage candidate who criticized the Mormon church and community, or a pro-choice, pro-civil unions candidate who respects the community? This is not one I can answer, though Mormons seem to have a strong loyalty with the Republican party.
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« Reply #841 on: May 22, 2009, 11:11:17 pm »


Dude, your hate for Huckabee is blinding your judgement. Also you don't speak for mormons, you just speak for yourself. The fact is Huckabee would kill Obama in Utah and thats the bottom line.

Although that may be true...

"Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?"

óMike Huckabee, in an interview with New York Times magazine in response to a question on whether Mormonism is a religion or a cult. Huckabee said the quote was taken out of context, and later apologized to Romney.
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« Reply #842 on: May 23, 2009, 12:15:57 am »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat

Dude, your hate for Huckabee is blinding your judgement. Also you don't speak for mormons, you just speak for yourself. The fact is Huckabee would kill Obama in Utah and thats the bottom line.

Agree completely on this and on RowanBrandon's post.
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« Reply #843 on: May 23, 2009, 12:23:53 am »

Mormons don't like Huckabee too much, "hate blinding" or otherwise.  We had numerous approval polls and head-vs.-heads where a lot of Utahans claimed they'd vote Obama vs. Huckabee.  Obama even led Huckabee pretty solidly in one, albeit one that showed the Presidential race improbably close.

Would Utah vote Obama against Huckabee?  I sincerely doubt it, but Huckabee is not especially popular in Utah.  Voters would "come home" gradually, especially because I doubt a Huckabee candidacy would concentrate much on evangelical Christianity.  But otherwise I see it as analogous to Obama's GE performance in West Virginia -- not a tanking, but swimming against an added current.
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« Reply #844 on: May 23, 2009, 12:59:00 am »

Huckabee doesn't seem willing to compromise for political expediency, for better or for worse.  When it comes to not being super evangelical it's the latter.

Hell, he doesn't have to prove his social conservative credentials but every time he's been making the news the last few weeks it's been for that needless reason.
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War on Want
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« Reply #845 on: May 23, 2009, 01:09:39 am »

I think Obama could win Utah against Huckabee. Mormon turnout would be very, very low and SLC is bound to vote for Obama at even higher rates due to the few Republican more secular gentiles and  Jack Mormons voting for Obama along with the city growing somewhat in the next four years. This is if he wages a masterful campaign with perfect conditions though. I think if Obama has 55% approval ratings and conducts an average campaign the closest he could make Utah is in the low 40's.

Idaho would also get significantly closer in the southern areas with Huckabee as a candidate. Evangelicals are pretty non-existent until you get to Boise and Mountain Home. In other words if Huckabee is nominated pretty large parts of the West will swing even further towards Obama, while others should actually go towards Huckabee.
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« Reply #846 on: May 23, 2009, 09:39:16 am »

I think Obama could win Utah against Huckabee. Mormon turnout would be very, very low and SLC is bound to vote for Obama at even higher rates due to the few Republican more secular gentiles and  Jack Mormons voting for Obama along with the city growing somewhat in the next four years. This is if he wages a masterful campaign with perfect conditions though. I think if Obama has 55% approval ratings and conducts an average campaign the closest he could make Utah is in the low 40's.

Idaho would also get significantly closer in the southern areas with Huckabee as a candidate. Evangelicals are pretty non-existent until you get to Boise and Mountain Home. In other words if Huckabee is nominated pretty large parts of the West will swing even further towards Obama, while others should actually go towards Huckabee.
Agreed.
If it's a tight race nationally, Huckabee would win in Utah. But if Obama was approval rating's in the 60's, maybe even high 50's, Utah will be extremely competitive. Mormon turnout will be ridiculously low. They could just flock to a 3rd party candidate.
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« Reply #847 on: May 23, 2009, 11:35:29 am »

When did you become an independent?  Are the mean Republicans purging moderates again? Sad
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #848 on: May 23, 2009, 12:38:22 pm »

When did you become an independent?  Are the mean Republicans purging moderates again? Sad
Pretty much
Actually, I'll give a small list...
1. I don't approve of our chairman
2. Huckabee is doing way to well in polls
3. Far Right Republicans are ruling our party, and want all moderates out.
4. Rush and Hannity are becoming the voices of our party...that is scary Sad
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« Reply #849 on: May 23, 2009, 12:42:19 pm »

When did you become an independent?  Are the mean Republicans purging moderates again? Sad
Pretty much
Actually, I'll give a small list...
1. I don't approve of our chairman
2. Huckabee is doing way to well in polls
3. Far Right Republicans are ruling our party, and want all moderates out.
4. Rush and Hannity are becoming the voices of our party...that is scary Sad

5. I realize that having a conservative viewpoint on this forum will not help me make "forum friends", therefore I better get in line quick with the clique or they'll hate me.
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