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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1029174 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1300 on: July 01, 2009, 02:09:23 pm »

New Jersey (PPP)Sad

53% Approve
40% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,094 New Jersey voters from June 27th to 29th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_701.pdf

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1301 on: July 01, 2009, 02:14:55 pm »

The NJ poll is especially interesting because Senators Menendez and Lautenberg are at 32-43 and 41-46 disapproval, while Strategic Vision just a week ago had them at 50-37 and 47-40 approval, while their numbers on Obama were quite similar (SV about 3% higher).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1302 on: July 01, 2009, 02:44:29 pm »



Hmmmm...... interesting map. I was hoping for a Maryland or Vermont poll.

Funny! I was interested more in Mississippi, Montana, and North Dakota.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1303 on: July 02, 2009, 01:39:07 pm »

Quinnipiac University National Poll:

57% Approve
33% Disapprove

From June 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 3,063 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1345
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1304 on: July 04, 2009, 12:35:25 am »

Due to a lack of domestic polls, let's look north:

Canada Harris-Decima poll:

73% Excellent/Good
20% Fair/Poor

Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey. These data were gathered between June 18 and June 21 2009. A sample of the same size has a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/pdf/news_releases/070209E.pdf
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1305 on: July 04, 2009, 11:42:44 am »

^ Actually, I think it could be higher than that. It says that 16% say he's doing a fair job, while only 4% say he's doing a poor job. I hate when they include the "fair" option.
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Vepres
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« Reply #1306 on: July 04, 2009, 11:56:25 am »

The Canadian poll makes sense. Obama has had a stellar foreign policy thus far, and that's what people in other countries care about.
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« Reply #1307 on: July 04, 2009, 02:04:42 pm »

The Canadian poll makes sense. Obama has had a stellar foreign policy thus far, and that's what people in other countries care about.

Ironic since his economic policy will actually hurt Canada. But people are not very intelligent in this country.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1308 on: July 06, 2009, 12:58:32 pm »

*big yawn*

Are polling outfits finally bankrupt or the newspapers paying them ?

(Or it was July 4th ...)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1309 on: July 06, 2009, 01:22:15 pm »

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1310 on: July 06, 2009, 02:44:17 pm »

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

I think Obama will have a lead of 3-4 points.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1311 on: July 06, 2009, 11:59:20 pm »

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

I think Obama will have a lead of 3-4 points.

I`ll predict 53-42 Obama approval in the state and 47-41 vs. Pawlenty.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1312 on: July 07, 2009, 12:01:22 am »

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

I think Obama will have a lead of 3-4 points.

I`ll predict 53-42 Obama approval in the state and 47-41 vs. Pawlenty.

Yeah, maybe, since it's PPP and they have been giving Obama far worse numbers than anyone else.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1313 on: July 07, 2009, 12:12:59 am »

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

I think Obama will have a lead of 3-4 points.

I`ll predict 53-42 Obama approval in the state and 47-41 vs. Pawlenty.

Yeah, maybe, since it's PPP and they have been giving Obama far worse numbers than anyone else.

Also, MN polls have been really weird too in the last 3 cycles. In 2004 they overestimated Bush, in 2006 they overestimated Hatch and in 2008 they overestimated Obama ...
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Rowan
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« Reply #1314 on: July 07, 2009, 06:08:45 am »

Ohio(Quinnipiac)

Approve 49%
Disapprove 44%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1347
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Zarn
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« Reply #1315 on: July 07, 2009, 08:44:20 am »

Rasmussen Tracking

52% Approve
47% Disapprove
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1316 on: July 07, 2009, 09:39:07 am »

Whoa! Ohio is lower than I thought it would be, and Obama has fallen again in Rasmussen. Will more disapprove than approve by the end of the month?

Not sure what Rasmussen poll you see, but mine has Obama at 53-47.

Gallup (National):
Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 34%
Undecided: 7%
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Zarn
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« Reply #1317 on: July 07, 2009, 10:19:41 am »
« Edited: July 07, 2009, 12:12:23 pm by TrueRepublicIran »

It's 52%.

Today's Gallup among Adults

58% Approve (-1)
35% Disapprove (+1)
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BM
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« Reply #1318 on: July 07, 2009, 04:33:27 pm »

PPP:

Quote
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Holmes
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« Reply #1319 on: July 07, 2009, 04:36:34 pm »

Gee. I wonder why independents aren't approving a right-leaning administration.
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CJK
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« Reply #1320 on: July 07, 2009, 04:51:33 pm »

Gee. I wonder why independents aren't approving a right-leaning administration.

Probably the same reason they disapproved of the left-leaning Bush administration.
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Vepres
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« Reply #1321 on: July 07, 2009, 04:55:52 pm »

I bet a lot of these "Democrats" they survey don't turn out in elections, so their opinion means very little. They're probably overestimating his support. This seems to be the trend, Democrats' numbers are overestimated because many "Democrats" don't care very much and thus don't vote.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #1322 on: July 07, 2009, 05:10:26 pm »

I bet a lot of these "Democrats" they survey don't turn out in elections, so their opinion means very little. They're probably overestimating his support. This seems to be the trend, Democrats' numbers are overestimated because many "Democrats" don't care very much and thus don't vote.

Amusingly before both the 2006 and 2008 elections there was enormous amounts of discussion about over weighting Democrats blah blah blah, and the end finding was that at least in most state polls there was absolutely nothing to it. If anything, in order to get an accurate picture of results you had to overweight Democrats and Independents substantially to make up for the extreme conservatism of the rump of the GOP, whose supporters are a lot more cohesive since most Republicans who are likely to vote against the party or support Obama have switched identifications.

 This is a issue with polls that use identification rather than registration as their baseline. It also seemed mostly to apply to state polls more than national ones. A lot of this is because most national polls were by CBS/ABC/NBC/NYT whose polls suck generally.

This should not be an issue at all with Rassmussen or Surveyusa which use a likely voter screen, and there is enormous evidence(go back and look at polls in 2003 or 1997 for senate races) that the further out from an election, the greater a likely voter screen favors Republicans.



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1323 on: July 07, 2009, 11:57:19 pm »

Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin Badger Poll)Sad

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP28_PR1.pdf
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Alcon
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« Reply #1324 on: July 08, 2009, 12:14:33 am »

If anything, in order to get an accurate picture of results you had to overweight Democrats and Independents substantially to make up for the extreme conservatism of the rump of the GOP, whose supporters are a lot more cohesive since most Republicans who are likely to vote against the party or support Obama have switched identifications.

 This is a issue with polls that use identification rather than registration as their baseline. It also seemed mostly to apply to state polls more than national ones. A lot of this is because most national polls were by CBS/ABC/NBC/NYT whose polls suck generally.

I don't really understand why this would show up in polls but not at the polls.  I'm very tired, but could you explain in greater depth?

Or just, like, say "read it tomorrow you jerk."  I can do that, too, although I think I'll still probably be confused.
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