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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022336 times)
Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1325 on: July 08, 2009, 07:00:03 am »

PPP:

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Nationally, Independents soured on Republicans these past two election cycles (though, IIRC, only in Florida - of the Southern states - did they clearly break for Obama (52-45); pretty evenly split in Virginia - so if Obama's trailing 38-52 in approval then it is bad). It was mostly in the traditionally Democratic and Democratic-leaning swing states where they overwhelmingly split for Obama

It's understandable that if Democratic efforts to rejuvenate the economy are perceived to be falling short that they are souring on Obama

Will Republicans ultimately benefit? Possibly - but lets see how things stand in autumn of 2010. Much could happen, for the better - or for the worse - (at home and abroad) between now and then
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Zarn
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« Reply #1326 on: July 08, 2009, 09:09:07 am »

Rasmussen

52% Approve (+0)
48% Disapprove (+1)
Overall +4 (-1)

Strongly Approve 32% (-1)
Strongly Disapprove 37% (+1)
Overall -5 (-2)
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #1327 on: July 08, 2009, 10:17:14 am »

If anything, in order to get an accurate picture of results you had to overweight Democrats and Independents substantially to make up for the extreme conservatism of the rump of the GOP, whose supporters are a lot more cohesive since most Republicans who are likely to vote against the party or support Obama have switched identifications.

 This is a issue with polls that use identification rather than registration as their baseline. It also seemed mostly to apply to state polls more than national ones. A lot of this is because most national polls were by CBS/ABC/NBC/NYT whose polls suck generally.


I don't really understand why this would show up in polls but not at the polls.  I'm very tired, but could you explain in greater depth?

Or just, like, say "read it tomorrow you jerk."  I can do that, too, although I think I'll still probably be confused.


Basically we all agree that the number of Republicans has been going down over the last few years and adjust polls accordingly. But at the same time the percentage of Republicans is going down, those voters leaving them aren't dissapearing, but they are actively changing the makeup of independents. As a result numbers that might well have been

D Candidate R Candidate

D(35%)  93%              7%
I(31%)   55%             43%
R(34%)  85%              13%

Will very likely change into

D(37%) 91%               9%
I(37%)  52%               44%
R(26%) 93%                 7%

This would be portrayed as voters souring on Democrats even though few voters have actually changed their preference at all. All they have done is changed their identification. I think that there has been an approach taken that all Independents are actually ideologically similar, when in fact, independents are ideologically closest to the minority party whose members have moved en masse into it. All that has really changed is that Republicans are identifying as independents. Now a few may have actually changed their ideology, but most have probably kept at least some of their views.

Basically this is my counter to Rasmussen's claims that independents are becoming more conservative on "x issue". I don't think there is actual evidence of them becoming more anti-tax. Instead Anti-tax  people switched registration recently.

Sorry on not posting earlier. In a European time zone.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1328 on: July 08, 2009, 11:34:27 am »

Dan, SUSA doesn't use a LV screen, at least until a month or two before said election.  All of their approval polls right now are of "adults".

The key point to keep in mind - what do SUSA, PPP and Rasmussen share in common?
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BM
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« Reply #1329 on: July 08, 2009, 12:17:41 pm »

Gallup:

Approve 56% (-2)
Disapprove 36% (+1)

both the worst ever for his presidency
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Badger
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« Reply #1330 on: July 08, 2009, 12:29:05 pm »

Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin Badger Poll)Sad

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP28_PR1.pdf

New Badger poll: Approval--100%.

(Number of badgers polled: 1; MOE = +/- 5%) :-)
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1331 on: July 08, 2009, 02:26:57 pm »

Gallup:

Approve 56% (-2)
Disapprove 36% (+1)

both the worst ever for his presidency

56% was JFK's lowest approval rating.

I can see him having 45-55% approval ratings in 2012.
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Rowan
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« Reply #1332 on: July 08, 2009, 03:28:25 pm »

The key point to keep in mind - what do SUSA, PPP and Rasmussen share in common?

IVR.
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #1333 on: July 08, 2009, 03:36:05 pm »

Anyone have any numbers for what Bush and Clinton's approvals were at this point in their term? For comparison.
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CJK
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« Reply #1334 on: July 08, 2009, 04:32:29 pm »
« Edited: July 08, 2009, 04:43:31 pm by CJK »

Anyone have any numbers for what Bush and Clinton's approvals were at this point in their term? For comparison.

Gallup averages:

Clinton July 1993: 43% approve 49% disapprove

Bush July 2001: 57% approve 34% disapprove
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1335 on: July 08, 2009, 06:12:59 pm »

I know favorable ratings aren't the same thing as approval ratings, but they go hand in hand.

Anyway, Obama's favorable ratings in NC: 61% favorable, 29% unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/june-2009-poll-results
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Rowan
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« Reply #1336 on: July 08, 2009, 06:50:50 pm »

Virginia(PPP)

Approve 48%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_708.pdf
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Devilman88
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« Reply #1337 on: July 08, 2009, 09:31:28 pm »

I know favorable ratings aren't the same thing as approval ratings, but they go hand in hand.

Anyway, Obama's favorable ratings in NC: 61% favorable, 29% unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/june-2009-poll-results

I wouldn't read to much into that poll.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1338 on: July 08, 2009, 10:04:58 pm »

I know favorable ratings aren't the same thing as approval ratings, but they go hand in hand.

Anyway, Obama's favorable ratings in NC: 61% favorable, 29% unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/june-2009-poll-results

Civitas? Quality polling firm right there.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1339 on: July 08, 2009, 10:28:01 pm »

New polls today:



Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.


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Purple State
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« Reply #1340 on: July 08, 2009, 10:34:39 pm »

Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.

Haha, what?  Do you think people are like, "Ah! I don't see the President! Where is he, where is he?! He's horrible!"

Only in Fake America. Those damn elitist liberals can't go without those visuals, ya know.



Tongue
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1341 on: July 08, 2009, 10:35:52 pm »

Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.

Haha, what?  Do you think people are like, "Ah! I don't see the President! Where is he, where is he?! He's horrible!"

I don't think that's the reason his approval ratings have fallen (slightly...), but the perception that he's spending too much time focusing on international issues, which is reinforced when people see photos of him smiling with Putin or Medvedev, and not doing anything to help the economy certainly can't be helpful (in the short term, at least).
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5280
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« Reply #1342 on: July 08, 2009, 11:20:38 pm »

New polls today:



Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.



Expect to see more yellow on that map within 6 to 12 months.
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War on Want
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« Reply #1343 on: July 08, 2009, 11:28:43 pm »

Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.

Haha, what?  Do you think people are like, "Ah! I don't see the President! Where is he, where is he?! He's horrible!"

I don't think that's the reason his approval ratings have fallen (slightly...), but the perception that he's spending too much time focusing on international issues, which is reinforced when people see photos of him smiling with Putin or Medvedev, and not doing anything to help the economy certainly can't be helpful (in the short term, at least).
Yeah the fact that he has spent so much time focusing on foriegn policy with almost no attention put on the economy has gotten even me irritated with him.
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Purple State
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« Reply #1344 on: July 08, 2009, 11:47:09 pm »

Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.

Haha, what?  Do you think people are like, "Ah! I don't see the President! Where is he, where is he?! He's horrible!"

I don't think that's the reason his approval ratings have fallen (slightly...), but the perception that he's spending too much time focusing on international issues, which is reinforced when people see photos of him smiling with Putin or Medvedev, and not doing anything to help the economy certainly can't be helpful (in the short term, at least).
Yeah the fact that he has spent so much time focusing on foriegn policy with almost no attention put on the economy has gotten even me irritated with him.

What no attention?

The issue with modern media is that we assume that if it's not in the 24 hour news cycle, it isn't happening. It's not like Obama is single-handedly steering the economy, so what does him being home have to do with how he handles the economy? He can't make domestic decisions abroad?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1345 on: July 08, 2009, 11:47:15 pm »

New Jersey (Rasmussen)Sad

55% Approve
44% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Jersey was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 7, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/toplines/toplines_new_jersey_governor_july_7_2009
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1346 on: July 09, 2009, 01:15:01 am »

Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.

Haha, what?  Do you think people are like, "Ah! I don't see the President! Where is he, where is he?! He's horrible!"

When a mad leader in North Korea fires off missiles and has a nuke program, any missiles (nukes or not) that that mad leader orders fired at the West Coast must pass through Russian airspace, and our President gets a chance to discuss what to do about it with the Russian political leadership and gets a chance, do you think that he would be wise to take factory tours in Ohio instead?

To put it crudely, he had better do diplomacy with Russia so that people in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Sacramento, Fresno, Los Angeles, San Diego can be sure of being able to vote for him. Vaporized people don't vote, among other things. If one of our great cities is hit hard enough, then a high level of unemployment there will be the least of most people's problems.

Who wants to create jobs for grave diggers? 

 
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CJK
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« Reply #1347 on: July 09, 2009, 06:41:43 am »

Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.

Haha, what?  Do you think people are like, "Ah! I don't see the President! Where is he, where is he?! He's horrible!"

When a mad leader in North Korea fires off missiles and has a nuke program, any missiles (nukes or not) that that mad leader orders fired at the West Coast must pass through Russian airspace, and our President gets a chance to discuss what to do about it with the Russian political leadership and gets a chance, do you think that he would be wise to take factory tours in Ohio instead?

To put it crudely, he had better do diplomacy with Russia so that people in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Sacramento, Fresno, Los Angeles, San Diego can be sure of being able to vote for him. Vaporized people don't vote, among other things. If one of our great cities is hit hard enough, then a high level of unemployment there will be the least of most people's problems.

Who wants to create jobs for grave diggers? 

 

Well thanks for enlightening us dullards on the virtues of diplomacy. I think, however, that he was making fun of another one of your unsubstantiated views and desired more evidence for them.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1348 on: July 09, 2009, 11:20:16 am »

Judging by all these new state polls, I'd peg Obama's nationwide approval somewhere around 50-53%.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1349 on: July 09, 2009, 11:24:38 am »

I think we can all agree that with these approval numbers, Utah is no longer in play for Obama.
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