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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022439 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #1800 on: August 10, 2009, 07:41:15 am »

Gallup just released 50 states, but they are from January-June polling so I have no idea what to make of it. Pretty much meaningless numbers.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122165/Obama-Approval-Highest-D.C.-Hawaii-Vermont.aspx

I concur, so I won't make any map about these. Polls from January to June might be rich in data but they would also be obsolete.

Oh, man. This is really cool to look at, I'll give them that.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1801 on: August 10, 2009, 09:44:13 am »

Gallup just released 50 states, but they are from January-June polling so I have no idea what to make of it. Pretty much meaningless numbers.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122165/Obama-Approval-Highest-D.C.-Hawaii-Vermont.aspx

I concur, so I won't make any map about these. Polls from January to June might be rich in data but they would also be obsolete.
Should be useful for that projection thingee you did. But not be confused with current polling.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1802 on: August 10, 2009, 12:14:34 pm »
« Edited: August 10, 2009, 02:47:24 pm by pbrower2a »

Only two states (Missouri and Montana) would go to Obama in 2012,  solely due to the marginal effects of the Age Wave (that young voters are more liberal-leaning than the general public, and that the group of young voters who voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 will have expanded from ages 18-30 to 18-34 in 2012,  if nothing else changes. Note that those are marginal effects. Young voters remain decidedly Democratic, and any shift of them to the Republican nominee will require strong counteraction of the Age Wave. 41 electoral votes will not be enough to change the nature of the 2012 election; the Republicans will have to pick up about 75 electoral votes to make things close (which would include IN, NC, and NE-02, and  FL and OH as well) -- and that the Republicans would have to more than undo the Age Effect.

My expression of this topic in the form of a map:

 



Explanation                                                                                                    EV Cumulative

Reddish-black: "Metropolitan America" -- Fuhgeddaboudit.                          209  209
Deep Red: "Suburban America" -- Obama must absolutely win all of these.  55   264
Red: Obama victory zone: OH, FL, or two of CO, NV, and VA                          74  338 
Pink: Age Wave Obama wins, 2008 (NC, IN, NE-02)                                    27 365

The Age Wave alone strengthens all 2008 wins for Obama in 2012.

Dark  orange : Obama wins, 2012 (MO, MT)                                                   14  379 

Anything beyond this will require something other than the effect of the Age Wave in politics

Beige: Arizona  (reversal of Favorite Son effect, 2008-2012):                        10   389

Anything beyond this requires political changes that I cannot yet predict, but that I can't rule out, either. In arbitrary order of likelihood:


Pale green: Clinton-but-not-Obama states "return"                                     38   437
Dark green: racially-polarized Deep South                                                  39   466
Pale blue:  Small-but-unlikely gains, Upper Plains                                         7   473
Medium blue: Texas                                                                                       34   507

Beyond this, Obama wins are all but impossible:


Deep blue: No way!                                                                                       31   538

                     

I am playing loose with one category: Clinton won Louisiana twice but never won South Carolina. South Carolina was much closer than Louisiana in 2008. The Age Wave is weak in the Dakotas.

----

This map shows how Obama can win in 2012 -- or lose. It's clear that Obama has no way of losing anything in reddish-black, just as he has no reasonable expectation of winning anything in the bluish-black. The second-darkest shade of red (really a reddish-brown) shows some slight evidence of shakiness, like having voted for a Republican nominee for President once or having been really close to doing so in 2000 or 2004. In a 50-50 race these all go to Obama. Should Obama lose any state in this reddish-brown group. he loses.

The medium red includes the legitimate swing states of a 50-50 contest in 2012. Those include Nevada, which went for Obama by a huge margin -- but late. Nevada may be joining the Blue Firewall, but one election does not show that. Should the Republicans win all of these or lose only Nevada it will win in 2012. Colorado? Virginia? Such depends upon the apportionment of House seats, and those in the red-brown and red-black categories will lose lots of seats due to relative losses of population. The GOP absolutely must win Florida and Ohio and can't lose two of the other states in this category and expect to win. Virginia may be enough for Obama to win even if he wins only it; I will have a more definitive answer after the 2010 Census.

Pink? Obama won these  by slight margins. No Democratic nominee for President had ever won Indiana or anything in Nebraska since 1964 (also true of Virginia, but Virginia was no squeaker).  Obama won their 27 electoral votes because of young voters (other explanations are possible -- Latinos, Hispanics, GLBT populations).

The Age Wave -- that younger voters are much more Democratic-leaning  than their elders, and that the new voters of 2012 are likely to be no less liberal -- should solidify Obama's wins even in the "pink" group. Such will be enough to flip only two states in 2012: Missouri and Montana, which will be little more than enough to offset losses of electoral votes in dark-red and medium-red categories.

Picking up everything in red or orange will indicate that Obama has gained no support between 2008 and 2012 except through demographic change. That's still a decisive victory.

Arizona? Unless Senator John Kyl (R, AZ)  becomes the Republican nominee for President or Vice-President, the Republicans probably lose Arizona. The favorite-son effect is worth 10-15% in votes. Consider that even George McGovern got 45% of the vote in South Dakota in 1972 while losing neighboring North Dakota and Nebraska by about 70-30 margins and  faring about as well in Minnesota and not so well in Iowa, both of which were much more Democratic-leaning. 

The rest? States in any shade of green are sure losses for Obama should Mike Huckabee be the GOP nominee. Those in light green could conceivably vote against Mitt Romney. Those in dark green seem so polarized on ethnic lines (white-black) -- even Georgia -- that they are unlikely to swing toward Obama unless voting behavior changes. Sure, Georgia went for McCain by a small margin, and it is easy for many non-Georgians to think that greater Atlanta and such places as Athens and Savannah would go strongly for him. Northern Georgia is politically much like North Carolina; southern Georgia is much like Mississippi.   

The states in pale green were not as racially-polarized in their voting as those in dark green; white voters in Kentucky and West Virginia voted in the 40-45% range for Obama in 2008, which probably isn't that far from white behavior in Indiana or Ohio. Relevant rates in the states in dark green were very low. Should those rates approach 35%, Obama might pick off the Deep South.  Note well: that for Obama to pick off any of these states he must induce people to change some voting behaviors.

Pale blue? The Dakotas and NE-01. Obama will NOT win Nebraska at large, let alone NE-03 (arguably the most conservative district in America). Although these are not strong Republican areas, the Age Wave in these very rural areas is far too weak to make a difference in 2012. Besides, they hold only seven electoral votes. Perhaps rural areas induce kids to have political values much closer to those of their parents than is the case in Suburbia. In this category one sees only seven electoral votes. Obama isn't going to put much effort into winning them over.

Medium blue? That's one state, and a big one -- Texas. The Age Wave is strong in Texas; under-30 voters went for Obama by about a 10-point margin in Texas. Texas fits into no particular region. I'm going to discuss Texas as a possible pickup so long as people keep talking about any GOP nominee having any chance to win Wisconsin, because Texas was about as far from going for Obama as Wisconsin was from going for McCain, or until the GOP nominee has a 15% lead in Texas. Texas is essentially Kansas grafted onto Florida politically; Texas will go for Obama in 2012 if Florida goes to Obama by 8% or more or if Kansas goes to the Republican nominee by 10% or less. I don't think that the Age Wave will be strong enough to give Texas to Obama.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1803 on: August 10, 2009, 01:23:34 pm »

Gallup just released 50 states, but they are from January-June polling so I have no idea what to make of it. Pretty much meaningless numbers.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122165/Obama-Approval-Highest-D.C.-Hawaii-Vermont.aspx
ROLF OBAMA approval in Alabama 56 pc LOL xD

LOL, also 53% in Oklahoma and 58% in Mississippi? That would only happen if he had n 80% approval nationwide.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1804 on: August 10, 2009, 08:22:48 pm »

His numbers are currently right where they were when he was elected, right? I would think this is all to be expected. He is pushing the agenda he promised, so this is just all those Republicans that were drawn to Obama's personality, rather than his policy, returning where they really stand.


Approval seems to declined among moderate Republicans pretty heavily but, for now, the center holds Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1805 on: August 11, 2009, 10:23:21 am »

Portland Region, Oregon (SurveyUSA, 500 adults, August 10)Sad

56% Approve
40% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=116e21d5-bb00-4e86-9311-c5abaa0af93b

This is what SurveyUSA defines as "Portland Region":



http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029_files/sheet042.htm
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Rob
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« Reply #1806 on: August 11, 2009, 01:28:33 pm »

The only counties that should be in a "Portland Region" are Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Hood River, and Wasco...
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Verily
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« Reply #1807 on: August 11, 2009, 01:49:50 pm »

I don't think even Wasco belongs in the Portland Region.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1808 on: August 11, 2009, 01:53:49 pm »

Support for congressional health care reform is pretty bad:

42% Support
53% Oppose

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/august_2009/support_for_congressional_health_care_reform_falls_to_new_low
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1809 on: August 11, 2009, 02:32:55 pm »


That doesn't surprise me for two reasons:

1) Democrats seem either unable - or worse still, unable - get their act together and reach a 'consensus', in private, about how best to move forward. It only sends a message of disarray

2) I've never been one to underestimate the effectiveness of the fear and smear machine operated by the Rabid Reactionary Right against Democrats
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1810 on: August 11, 2009, 02:54:52 pm »


Rasmussen will have it lower than anyone else, of course.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #1811 on: August 11, 2009, 03:23:23 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #1812 on: August 11, 2009, 04:27:00 pm »

RAS had Mccain gaining In PA last fall.They had people supporting Drill Baby Drill.How well
did that go.As a rule I Ignore RAS untill we are In General Elections then they can be taken
seriously.As for CBS/NYTimes polls calling them liberal orginazations are a joke.The New York
Times buried the surveilance programs till 2005.And If you think CBS Is proObama that Is
news to the Democratic base.
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Vepres
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« Reply #1813 on: August 11, 2009, 04:37:12 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

Just like Democrats did with social security reform in 2005. Grin
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #1814 on: August 11, 2009, 04:40:01 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

Just like Democrats did with social security reform in 2005. Grin

Oh, we hang congressmen in effigy and brought guns to protests?

Silly me, you know my memory.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1815 on: August 11, 2009, 04:40:11 pm »

RAS had Mccain gaining In PA last fall.They had people supporting Drill Baby Drill.How well
did that go.As a rule I Ignore RAS untill we are In General Elections then they can be taken
seriously.As for CBS/NYTimes polls calling them liberal orginazations are a joke.The New York
Times buried the surveilance programs till 2005.And If you think CBS Is proObama that Is
news to the Democratic base.

Not really.  His final poll (if I'm not mistaken) showed Obama+8.
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Rowan
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« Reply #1816 on: August 11, 2009, 04:43:46 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

Just like Democrats did with social security reform in 2005. Grin

Oh, we hang congressmen in effigy and brought guns to protests?

Silly me, you know my memory.

No, you just hung bush in effigy and burned him too while you were at it. And last I checked, it's not illegal to carry a gun.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1817 on: August 11, 2009, 04:51:50 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

Just like Democrats did with social security reform in 2005. Grin

Oh, we hang congressmen in effigy and brought guns to protests?

Silly me, you know my memory.

No, you just hung bush in effigy and burned him too while you were at it. And last I checked, it's not illegal to carry a gun.

Don't forget that someone hung Sarah Palin and McCain in effigy in West Hollywood during the campaign.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1818 on: August 11, 2009, 04:55:16 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

Just like Democrats did with social security reform in 2005. Grin

Oh, we hang congressmen in effigy and brought guns to protests?

Silly me, you know my memory.

No, you just hung bush in effigy and burned him too while you were at it. And last I checked, it's not illegal to carry a gun.

Don't forget that someone hung Sarah Palin and McCain in effigy in West Hollywood during the campaign.

Uhhh... That was actually an artist who put this up his roof as Halloween decoration.

But nice try anyway, son. 
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Rowan
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« Reply #1819 on: August 11, 2009, 05:10:16 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

Just like Democrats did with social security reform in 2005. Grin

Oh, we hang congressmen in effigy and brought guns to protests?

Silly me, you know my memory.

No, you just hung bush in effigy and burned him too while you were at it. And last I checked, it's not illegal to carry a gun.

Don't forget that someone hung Sarah Palin and McCain in effigy in West Hollywood during the campaign.

Uhhh... That was actually an artist who put this up his roof as Halloween decoration.

But nice try anyway, son. 

Oh, so you can just claim anything is art and it is fine?
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #1820 on: August 11, 2009, 07:09:49 pm »

Oh, so you can just claim anything is art and it is fine?

I mentioned it to show that it wasn't a public demonstration or protest during a political event, you dumbass.
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« Reply #1821 on: August 11, 2009, 08:36:41 pm »

NC: Obama Approval, Birth (PPP 8/4-10)

By Emily Swanson

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/4-10/09; 749 likely voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(PPP release)

North Carolina

Job Approval / Disapproval

Pres. Obama: 46 / 47 (chart)

Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?

39% Support, 50% Oppose

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

54% Yes, 26% No
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JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #1822 on: August 11, 2009, 11:21:05 pm »


NYT/CBS polls: LIBERAL SOURCE, LOLOL.
Rasmussen polls: Completely accurate and fair.

Also, since Republicans have engaged in tactics of organized disinformation, disruption, and outright lying, this should hardly be surprising.

So having Obama's Approval 49% and his Disapproval 50% is fair.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1823 on: August 11, 2009, 11:42:41 pm »

Virginia (Rasmussen)Sad

48% Approve
51% Disapprove

(Tim Kaine)

56% Approve
43% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_august_10_2009
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1824 on: August 11, 2009, 11:53:24 pm »

RAS had Mccain gaining In PA last fall.They had people supporting Drill Baby Drill.How well
did that go.As a rule I Ignore RAS untill we are In General Elections then they can be taken
seriously.As for CBS/NYTimes polls calling them liberal orginazations are a joke.The New York
Times buried the surveilance programs till 2005.And If you think CBS Is proObama that Is
news to the Democratic base.

Not really.  His final poll (if I'm not mistaken) showed Obama+8.

Rasmussen was pretty accurate during this cycle. He may have been 1-2 points bias to the Republicans, but nothing along the lines of how this forum depicts them. Obama's approvals are certainly not at the NYT and CBS levels. Those firms are just as bias as Rasmussen. Anyone who claims otherwise is a mindless hack.
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