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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022629 times)
Zarn
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« Reply #1925 on: August 18, 2009, 09:41:06 am »

No, he wasn't... his approvals were higher.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1926 on: August 18, 2009, 12:15:31 pm »

Todays's Gallup Poll:

Approve - 52%
Disapprove - 42%
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« Reply #1927 on: August 18, 2009, 12:18:55 pm »

Todays's Gallup Poll:

Approve - 52%
Disapprove - 42%

New low
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1928 on: August 18, 2009, 12:29:07 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1929 on: August 18, 2009, 12:35:46 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.

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GLPman
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« Reply #1930 on: August 18, 2009, 12:42:09 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.



It's tough to make such a claim when there is no opponent to match up with Obama.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #1931 on: August 18, 2009, 12:51:33 pm »

Don't mix up an apple with an orange, please.
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Zarn
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« Reply #1932 on: August 18, 2009, 12:52:10 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.



No, it's not. His vote was around there. Approvals were higher. Some people approved of both him and McCain and voted for McCain.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1933 on: August 18, 2009, 12:57:31 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.



Bush Approval Rating in 2004 Exit Poll:

Approve - 53%
Disapprove - 46%

Election Result:

Bush - 51% (286 ECV's)
Kerry - 48% (251 ECV's)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1934 on: August 18, 2009, 01:02:33 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.





Bush Approval Rating in 2004 Exit Poll:

Approve - 53%
Disapprove - 46%

Election Result:

Bush - 51% (286 ECV's)
Kerry - 48% (251 ECV's)

Well within the margin of error. So was a near 50-50 split.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #1935 on: August 18, 2009, 01:03:38 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.



Approval ratings are generally higher than the actual vote percentage they will get.
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Vepres
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« Reply #1936 on: August 18, 2009, 01:16:43 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

I agree. I think his approvals will drop below 50 in the Gallup poll at some point in September. From there he could continue to dive, stagnate, or rise, depending.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1937 on: August 18, 2009, 01:21:08 pm »

Virginia (Washington Post)Sad

57% Approve
41% Disapprove

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone August 11-14, 2009, among a random sample of 1,002 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_081609.html

Probably too good to be true.

Gallup's adult model had it 55-37 during the same time the WaPo adult VA poll was conducted.

The approval for VA might be on the upper hand of the 3%-MoE though, the disapproval in the state seems to be right relative to Gallup.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1938 on: August 18, 2009, 01:50:12 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.





Bush Approval Rating in 2004 Exit Poll:

Approve - 53%
Disapprove - 46%

Election Result:

Bush - 51% (286 ECV's)
Kerry - 48% (251 ECV's)

Well within the margin of error. So was a near 50-50 split.

1. This was pretty consistent across polls and exit polls -- Bush was slightly more popular than he was strong electorally.  Hard to imagine, but there was a time where Bush was personally popular but lukewarm approvals -- just like Obama is now, except it's 2009 and not 2004.

2. The fact that it's within MoE does not automatically mean we can reject it.  That just means that we haven't reached a scientific level of reasonable certainty (somewhat arbitrarily, 95%).  Eighty percent certainty is still something.

3. I don't like using MoE with weighted exit polls because they are not a representative random sample.  Otherwise, they would not have to be re-weighted so frequently.

4. No, it wouldn't be within the Margin of Error.  The 2004 exit poll's MoE would have been 0.84%.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1939 on: August 18, 2009, 04:04:05 pm »

Folks, it is all about the long-term trendlines here.  Actual numbers really aren't that important.

Also, if what I think is going on and conservatives are excited while liberals are deflated (generally), then Gallup should continue to go down because of its model, even if Rasmussen stays stagnant (Rasmussen weights a lot of this variation out).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1940 on: August 18, 2009, 04:53:57 pm »

It's funny how hate can get conservatives so excited. (Honestly, they won't be able to do much beyond that for quite a while.)
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Vepres
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« Reply #1941 on: August 18, 2009, 05:07:32 pm »

It's funny how hate can get conservatives so excited. (Honestly, they won't be able to do much beyond that for quite a while.)

Just like hate of Bush got conservatives so excited. Grin
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Rowan
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« Reply #1942 on: August 18, 2009, 05:53:54 pm »

NBC News/WSJ

Approve 51%
Disapprove 40%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC-WSJ_Poll.pdf
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1943 on: August 18, 2009, 06:22:58 pm »

It's funny how hate can get conservatives so excited. (Honestly, they won't be able to do much beyond that for quite a while.)

Just like hate of Bush got conservatives so excited. Grin

Shouldn't that read liberals Wink
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paul718
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« Reply #1944 on: August 18, 2009, 08:57:16 pm »
« Edited: August 18, 2009, 08:58:58 pm by paul718 »


Still more confidence in this president than I ever had the dogmatoid arthritic who preceded him

Because the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit and No Child Left Behind adhered so closely to conservative dogma?

No Child Left Behind (NCLB) was practically designed to feed purveyors of standardized tests. It pushed teachers and school administrators to meet the demands of tests at the expense of other teaching activities -- anything other than the Three Rs. Such came at the cost of such essentials as science, history, civics,  and the arts. You know science, right? That's how we solve lots of problems. History is how we make sense of events. Civics tells us the norms of government (norms that Bush, Cheney, Rove, Abramoff, and deLay mocked to the detiment of good practice). The arts establish that more exists to life than crude acquisitiveness.

The Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit forced the government to pay top dollar for prescription medications, clearly something that only a corporate stooge would promote.


I wasn't arguing the merits of either program.  I was merely bringing forth examples to debunk the myth that George W. Bush was some sort of dogmatic conservative.


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Bush was able to lead?  Where was he when the economy began falling off a cliff in 2007?

He signed a ridiculous "stimulus" bill.  When the sh**t really hit the fan, he signed the EESA against the will of his own party.  Oh, and he did this with a Congress in opposition.  While he may have made bad decisions, you can't say he wasn't able to lead.

[/quote]

Whatever deficiencies Obama may have as a leader, his deficiencies are nothing contrasted to those of Dubya. Dubya was a pathological liar and a puppet of those who gave him his campaign funds. As for the stimulus bill, such came at the behest of his buddies in the financial industry, people who themselves created the problem and got scared of consequences of failure that might include mass revolt that might happen under his successor. To them it mattered far less who would be President then than that there be no threat of revolution. Choose your metaphor for the consequences: the financiers culpable for the subprime lending/real-estate bubble meltdown would be among the first to go to the wall before the firing squad (as in Castro's Cuba) or be led to the guillotine (French Revolution).  At the least the would be dispossessed like aristocrats in Lenin's Bolshevik Russia... it was the financiers who were scared. Add to that, much of the give-away was to foreign investors -- like capitalists in China -- who insisted on a return of the investment that the Bush maladministration pushed upon them. Those who rip off foreign lenders are in deep trouble; they make it good or they take others down with themselves. You didn't expect Chinese lenders to let us off the hook for our follies, did you? Don't you think that they would have ways in which to overthrow those who ripped them off?

As for economic management, Dubya stood for the most hare-brained of policies possible: rewarding tycoons and executives for gutting a nation's manufacturing with tax cuts while promoting speculation in real estate as an anodyne. Except that the object of speculation in the 1920s was more in corporate securities than in real estate, Dubya's economic policies were out of the Harding/Coolidge playbook whence came the disaster that Herbert Hoover couldn't undo.   

Dubya had one virtue as a politician: he was loyal to those who raised him into the formality of power. He never contradicted them and never showed any resistance to their most hare-brained and myopic schemes. When his handlers got scared, he did what they told him to do. That stimulus bill arose when financiers got scared of images of people like them losing their class privilege, if not their lives.

The best evidence that Dubya was a disaster was that the GOP used his image as sparingly as possible -- and the Democrats exploited contempt of his egregious failures as much as possible.  Dubya took the trust that others had developed in America and trashed it.
[/quote]

Again, I don't mean to disregard your well-written and obiously well-thought out post, but my aim wasn't to justify Dubya's record as President.  I was countering Mr. Phips' statement that Dubya wasn't a leader.  He may not have led us in the best possible direction, but he was most certainly a leader.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1945 on: August 19, 2009, 08:24:47 am »

Rasmussen to overtake Gallup in 3, 2, 1 ...

51% Approve (+2)
49% Disapprove (-1)
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« Reply #1946 on: August 19, 2009, 08:30:16 am »

Rasmussen to overtake Gallup in 3, 2, 1 ...

51% Approve (+2)
49% Disapprove (-1)

And the Gallup Vs Rasmussen people now have egg on their face...
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« Reply #1947 on: August 19, 2009, 08:33:43 am »

This isn't approval, although it is pretty interesting regarding economic management. I love how misleading the headline is aswell.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/august_2009/39_blame_obama_policies_for_bad_economy
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Zarn
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« Reply #1948 on: August 19, 2009, 09:52:40 am »

It's not misleading, if you take it into context.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1949 on: August 19, 2009, 10:45:56 am »

Read my post above wrt Rasmussen and Gallup.  If what I'm seeing fits, then this should be the general movement that occurs. (Rasmussen flatlines, Gallup moves downward)

Note:  It is, of course, stupid to read anything into any one day samples.  But, some food for thought is that Rasmussen occasionally (and don't place your hopes on this) can show strengthening in approval when approval is actually accelerating downward.  It's counterintuitive but it has to do with the heavy, heavy weighting of his model.
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