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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022468 times)
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change08
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« Reply #2075 on: August 26, 2009, 04:57:01 pm »


...I'm soooooooooo shocked at that. This doesn't bode well for his approvals/favourables in Wyoming and Idaho does it?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #2076 on: August 26, 2009, 05:01:55 pm »


I'm not exactly suprised at that.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2077 on: August 26, 2009, 05:09:24 pm »

Taking the Age Wave into account, Obama should still be competitive in NE-02, and will get around 42-45% statewide.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2078 on: August 26, 2009, 05:20:46 pm »
« Edited: August 26, 2009, 05:34:05 pm by pbrower2a »

The Georgia poll has some independence; the Florida poll, commissioned by a political party, has none. (I also reject interactive polls). Nebraska polled for the first time statewide (doesn't affect NE-02, Greater Omaha). I suspect that Obama is around 70% disapproval in NE-03, I'm guessing on NE-01 (near the state average) and NE-02.



Obama may be paying a price for the failure of his health care reform to take hold... but the GOP seems to be gaining no lasting political capital from it so far; look at the approval ratings for Obama against imaginable candidates. Remember: a campaign of confusion is less likely to create long-term support (the GOP needs this more than anything else) than is offering a valid alternative.  The GOP has taken a high-risk strategy -- one that can still blow up badly.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2079 on: August 26, 2009, 05:47:43 pm »

Taking the Age Wave into account, Obama should still be competitive in NE-02, and will get around 42-45% statewide.

You've bought into the ludicrous "age wave" theory? I'm not so sure I buy it considering I saw a poll on Facebook today with 70% of respondents (258,000) saying they would not want Obama reelected. Small snap shot, I know, but still.

I'm still going to go with the old age theory of approval ratings. If Obama has less than a 50% approval rating in a state, he probably will lose it. If his approvals are 36% in Nebraska, I have no idea why you'd think he'd get 42%-45% or so statewide. The old method has been true in the past, and I am not going to buy these age wave theories until they actually are proven to be true.
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« Reply #2080 on: August 26, 2009, 05:55:41 pm »

Taking the Age Wave into account, Obama should still be competitive in NE-02, and will get around 42-45% statewide.

You've bought into the ludicrous "age wave" theory? I'm not so sure I buy it considering I saw a poll on Facebook today with 70% of respondents (258,000) saying they would not want Obama reelected. Small snap shot, I know, but still.

I'm still going to go with the old age theory of approval ratings. If Obama has less than a 50% approval rating in a state, he probably will lose it. If his approvals are 36% in Nebraska, I have no idea why you'd think he'd get 42%-45% or so statewide. The old method has been true in the past, and I am not going to buy these age wave theories until they actually are proven to be true.

Barack Obama supporters on Facebook - 6,636,600
McCain/Palin 08 supporters on Facebook - 180,295
Ron Paul supporters on Facebook - 138,143

So the reason for Obama appearing so unpopular on Facebook is probably because most users on there dislike the President, whoever he/she is, as they see the President as an authority figure, and young people are known to rebel aganist authrority. Then again, Obama does have a lot more support than any other politician on there, so i dunno....
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« Reply #2081 on: August 26, 2009, 05:57:32 pm »

Taking the Age Wave into account, Obama should still be competitive in NE-02, and will get around 42-45% statewide.

You've bought into the ludicrous "age wave" theory? I'm not so sure I buy it considering I saw a poll on Facebook today with 70% of respondents (258,000) saying they would not want Obama reelected. Small snap shot, I know, but still.

I'm still going to go with the old age theory of approval ratings. If Obama has less than a 50% approval rating in a state, he probably will lose it. If his approvals are 36% in Nebraska, I have no idea why you'd think he'd get 42%-45% or so statewide. The old method has been true in the past, and I am not going to buy these age wave theories until they actually are proven to be true.
facebook polls are really crappy and completely unrepresentative please do not bring them up.

As for the age wave, i wouldnt buy into it either as you said people generally get about the same percent that approve give or take a few points. Though tmth may be going on the fact that the neb poll showed him doing about 5% better among younger age group than the other age groups.
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War on Want
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« Reply #2082 on: August 26, 2009, 06:00:12 pm »

Wow that is bad. I'm thinking that this poll is wrong though. This would mean his approvals are in the low 30's in Nebraska, which I highly doubt. Those kind of numbers are reserved for Utah, Wyoming and Idaho.
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« Reply #2083 on: August 26, 2009, 07:31:55 pm »

Pbrower, what's up with Utah and Alabama?
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« Reply #2084 on: August 26, 2009, 07:47:31 pm »

Wow, I'm surprised to see that nobody here has thrown out the idea of a "Kennedy bump" yet...
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2085 on: August 26, 2009, 07:55:50 pm »

Pbrower, what's up with Utah and Alabama?

Really old polls. You can safely assume Obama isnt too popular in those states.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2086 on: August 26, 2009, 07:56:58 pm »

Wow, I'm surprised to see that nobody here has thrown out the idea of a "Kennedy bump" yet...

I'm not sure, but maybe it will help increase support for health care reform by a couple of percentage points.
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« Reply #2087 on: August 26, 2009, 08:15:23 pm »

Wow, I'm surprised to see that nobody here has thrown out the idea of a "Kennedy bump" yet...

I actually was thinking about that. I think that'll help the dems in their version of Healthcare reform.
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« Reply #2088 on: August 26, 2009, 08:52:37 pm »

Does anyone know if Bush got a bit of a bump after Reagan died (I honestly can't remember)?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2089 on: August 26, 2009, 10:48:04 pm »

Pbrower, what's up with Utah and Alabama?

Utah? Really-old poll. Alabama? Suspicious poll because it is commissioned by an independent (but partisan) group -- a teachers' union. For Alabama, a poll is a poll, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it change in a few days.

South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee -- likewise.

I find it hard to believe that Obama support can be 60% in Indiana or Iowa -- those polls are old. I don't replace an old poll with guesswork.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2090 on: August 27, 2009, 12:24:12 am »

Wow, I'm surprised to see that nobody here has thrown out the idea of a "Kennedy bump" yet...

I'm not sure, but maybe it will help increase support for health care reform by a couple of percentage points.

The death of Teddy Kennedy loses one reliable Democratic vote for a few weeks at the least. That's two percentage points in the Senate.

That said, should the Democrats pass a health care reform bill, then the GOP leadership loses (for at least a while) an issue  upon which to carp. Political life gets quiet again -- with lots of current Republicans having to explain where the "death panels" were in the legislation and other such stuff.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2091 on: August 27, 2009, 05:55:47 am »

Pbrower, what's up with Utah and Alabama?

Utah? Really-old poll. Alabama? Suspicious poll because it is commissioned by an independent (but partisan) group -- a teachers' union. For Alabama, a poll is a poll, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it change in a few days.

South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee -- likewise.

I find it hard to believe that Obama support can be 60% in Indiana or Iowa -- those polls are old. I don't replace an old poll with guesswork.

 

He's at 56% in Iowa. You just missed the SUSA poll apparently. I know that they were all posted in this thread.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3fab4706-44e4-498e-b857-5a08b6d5d81b
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2092 on: August 27, 2009, 08:37:54 am »

Pbrower, what's up with Utah and Alabama?

Utah? Really-old poll. Alabama? Suspicious poll because it is commissioned by an independent (but partisan) group -- a teachers' union. For Alabama, a poll is a poll, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it change in a few days.

South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee -- likewise.

I find it hard to believe that Obama support can be 60% in Indiana or Iowa -- those polls are old. I don't replace an old poll with guesswork.

 

He's at 56% in Iowa. You just missed the SUSA poll apparently. I know that they were all posted in this thread.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3fab4706-44e4-498e-b857-5a08b6d5d81b

More than a month ago, and 56% rounds up to 60%.  I see a bigger difference in practice between 52% and 56% than between 56% and 63% in support, so I round up. That also works with negative appraisals; a 56% disapproval suggests that things are not close enough for easy "rectification" as does 63%, more so than 52%. maybe the system would work better with 5% gradations between 50 and 70% and a really-dark shade for something above that.

Some have criticized me for rounding up because when things were going well for Obama the rounding-up made him look more popular than he is. When things begin to look not so good, this system may exaggerate that. In 2008 Obama quit appearing in a state when it was up 55-45 one way or another... when it was up 55-45 for him because further campaigning was going to pile on, and when he was down 55-45 because his efforts weren't going to change things fast enough.   

There will be ups and downs. Does anyone expect the Hard Right to give up? They have the class privilege of the rich to protect and the superstitions of the under-learned to uphold against challenges from liberals and secularists. They were satisfied with Dubya, who gave them what they wanted most even if such alienated everyone else. They may see Obama as a bump on the road after which America will come to its senses and recognize that prosperity depends upon the unrelieved sacrifices of working people (misery creates wealth, doesn't it?) and upon the widespread acceptance of an abortion ban and a Biblical view of physical reality. The Hard Right still has a vision of a Christian and Corporate State, and if the Hard Right can make the new Jimmy Carter or Herbert Hoover out of Barack Obama, then things will be going very well -- maybe not for the rest of us, but surely well for themselves. If they can't get a continuation of their favored sort of politician, then at least they can get a failed liberalism that convinces America that (I hate to use the political f-word) works better, and maybe puts someone with a Dubya-like agenda back in the White House in 2012 and a "reliable" Congress and Senate back in charge -- this time with more power to enforce its well and to get institutional changes.   
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Zarn
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« Reply #2093 on: August 27, 2009, 09:03:13 am »

Don't you just love hacks...
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change08
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« Reply #2094 on: August 27, 2009, 10:46:37 am »

Rasmussen
8/25/09; 500 likely voters; 4.5% margin of error
Mode: IVR

New Jersey

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55% Approve, 44% Disapprove
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Zarn
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« Reply #2095 on: August 27, 2009, 12:09:10 pm »

Gallup

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 43%

Oh noes... Gallup was infiltrated by the fascist robot overlords of the Republican Party!!!
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2096 on: August 27, 2009, 12:13:26 pm »

Obama needs to stop his slide quickly.  He has got to get to the Senate and tell Democrats taht they dont have a choice of opposing this. 
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2097 on: August 27, 2009, 12:28:15 pm »

Obama needs to stop his slide quickly.  He has got to get to the Senate and tell Democrats taht they dont have a choice of opposing this. 

How would ramming the healthcare bill through congress help the President's approval ratings when a majority of Americans oppose it?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2098 on: August 27, 2009, 01:14:47 pm »

Obama needs to stop his slide quickly.  He has got to get to the Senate and tell Democrats taht they dont have a choice of opposing this. 

How would ramming the healthcare bill through congress help the President's approval ratings when a majority of Americans oppose it?

The choice of methods that the Hard Right is using is itself a huge gamble. The GOP has been losing about as much as Obama has so far. 
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War on Want
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« Reply #2099 on: August 27, 2009, 01:19:40 pm »

Obama needs to stop his slide quickly.  He has got to get to the Senate and tell Democrats taht they dont have a choice of opposing this. 

How would ramming the healthcare bill through congress help the President's approval ratings when a majority of Americans oppose it?
Well it obviously wouldn't help in the short term but long term it would help tremendously. The Republicans would look like a bunch of ass clowns once it turns out that death panels don't exist and that the government is nationalizing everything. Besides not passing the health care bill would hurt him in the same way short term.
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