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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022258 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #2600 on: September 23, 2009, 05:45:33 pm »

Stop jacking each other off in a public forum. It's... weird.
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Badger
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« Reply #2601 on: September 23, 2009, 05:52:50 pm »

Why do you continue to ignore the question about why you chose to include this NJ poll and rejected the earlier one?

I'm going to keep asking until you answer.

For the NJ poll showing disapproval of Obama, remind me again what the sample's 2008 vote was? Wasn't it a few points for McCain compared to an actual vote of 57-41? Even if a reasonable expected number of 2008 Obama voters lied about their vote to pollsters over regret/selective memory, that sample was still clearly FAR out of whack with the actual NJ electorate. Not to mention, even the most partisan NJ Republican on this board will acknowledge that Obama's approval rating in NJ should be running at least several points ahead of his national ratings. So Rasmussen showing Obama's national approval/disapproval rating at about -2 to even, Rassy concurrently showin a NJ approval poll a couple points worse is obviously flawed.

In a word, outlier.

Of course, Pbrower, you could just factor that errant NJ poll in to the map anyway just to shut these people up. What the hey? NJ will be back to green--probably to stay--when the next couple poll comes out over the next month and a half.
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Smid
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« Reply #2602 on: September 23, 2009, 06:37:59 pm »

Doesn't matter if it's a rogue poll, the next one will correct it. If a new poll doesn't come along, eventually the poll will drop off, like the one for Tennessee.

The simple thing to do would be to include all polls, even ones that don't look correct, or average the last few polls released if you're worried about a single rogue poll corrupting the sample. While we're at it, let's drop the congressional districts, since most polls are of the entire state, not just a single congressional district. People are smart enough to make their own minds up about how the congressional districts lie in relation to the state as a whole.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2603 on: September 23, 2009, 09:19:05 pm »

Why do you continue to ignore the question about why you chose to include this NJ poll and rejected the earlier one?

I'm going to keep asking until you answer.

For the NJ poll showing disapproval of Obama, remind me again what the sample's 2008 vote was? Wasn't it a few points for McCain compared to an actual vote of 57-41? Even if a reasonable expected number of 2008 Obama voters lied about their vote to pollsters over regret/selective memory, that sample was still clearly FAR out of whack with the actual NJ electorate. Not to mention, even the most partisan NJ Republican on this board will acknowledge that Obama's approval rating in NJ should be running at least several points ahead of his national ratings. So Rasmussen showing Obama's national approval/disapproval rating at about -2 to even, Rassy concurrently showin a NJ approval poll a couple points worse is obviously flawed.

In a word, outlier.

Of course, Pbrower, you could just factor that errant NJ poll in to the map anyway just to shut these people up. What the hey? NJ will be back to green--probably to stay--when the next couple poll comes out over the next month and a half.

It would fit that way -- as would the two polls involving Iowa.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2604 on: September 23, 2009, 11:48:49 pm »

New Jersey (Strategic Vision)Sad

48% Approve
43% Disapprove

The results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted September 18-20, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_092409.htm

TX-28 (R2000)Sad

50% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 600 likely voters in the Twenty-Eighth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone September 15 through September 17, 2009.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/17/TX/380
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2605 on: September 24, 2009, 05:10:13 am »

New Jersey (Strategic Vision)Sad

48% Approve
43% Disapprove

The results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted September 18-20, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_092409.htm

TX-28 (R2000)Sad

50% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 600 likely voters in the Twenty-Eighth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone September 15 through September 17, 2009.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/17/TX/380

NJ polling is simply wild.

What is it with TX-28? It's a district that stretches from about halfway between Austin and San Antonio to the Mexican border, just skirting Laredo  and holding a small part of San Antonio and some of its eastern and southern suburbs. It is 65% Hispanic; its Cook PVI is even, which means that it on the average can vote as America does. Its Representative, Henry Cuellar, is a so-called Blue Dog Democrat.

This poll is about healthcare, and it is apparently with Obama -- not against him.   
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Rowan
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« Reply #2606 on: September 24, 2009, 05:35:53 am »

So you are only including the NJ polls with him over 50%? Makes a helluva lot of sense to me.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2607 on: September 24, 2009, 08:06:15 am »

So you are only including the NJ polls with him over 50%? Makes a helluva lot of sense to me.

The positive polls this month overpower the one negative appraisal. No harm, no foul.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2608 on: September 24, 2009, 11:09:09 am »

48% rounds to 50% anyway, as fezzy said, so no big deal. Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2609 on: September 24, 2009, 11:16:21 am »

CA & NY approvals to be released later today.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #2610 on: September 24, 2009, 11:18:50 am »

Omg, stupid conservatives! It doesn't matter how bad Obama's approvals are. The Age Wave will still cause him to win.

All hail the ALMIGHTY AGE WAVE!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2611 on: September 24, 2009, 12:58:17 pm »

New York (Rasmussen)Sad

61% Approve
38% Disapprove

This national telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/new_york_senate_gillibrand_narrowly_leads_pataki
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2612 on: September 24, 2009, 01:07:52 pm »

New York (Rasmussen)Sad

61% Approve
38% Disapprove

This national telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/new_york_senate_gillibrand_narrowly_leads_pataki

NY still loves a black.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2613 on: September 24, 2009, 02:12:23 pm »

New York (Rasmussen)Sad

61% Approve
38% Disapprove

This national telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/new_york_senate_gillibrand_narrowly_leads_pataki

NY still loves a black.

But hates the other one.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2614 on: September 24, 2009, 03:34:44 pm »



What is it with TX-28? It's a district that stretches from about halfway between Austin and San Antonio to the Mexican border, just skirting Laredo  and holding a small part of San Antonio and some of its eastern and southern suburbs. It is 65% Hispanic; its Cook PVI is even, which means that it on the average can vote as America does. Its Representative, Henry Cuellar, is a so-called Blue Dog Democrat.

This poll is about healthcare, and it is apparently with Obama -- not against him.   

It has been shown that areas that are poorer than average tend to, quite obviously have more people uninsured. And uninsured people are much more likely to back the health care plan.

A lot of blue dog, socially conservative areas (eg Arkansas) would probably support the health care plan even though they do not like Obama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2615 on: September 24, 2009, 04:00:32 pm »



What is it with TX-28? It's a district that stretches from about halfway between Austin and San Antonio to the Mexican border, just skirting Laredo  and holding a small part of San Antonio and some of its eastern and southern suburbs. It is 65% Hispanic; its Cook PVI is even, which means that it on the average can vote as America does. Its Representative, Henry Cuellar, is a so-called Blue Dog Democrat.

This poll is about healthcare, and it is apparently with Obama -- not against him.   

It has been shown that areas that are poorer than average tend to, quite obviously have more people uninsured. And uninsured people are much more likely to back the health care plan.

A lot of blue dog, socially conservative areas (eg Arkansas) would probably support the health care plan even though they do not like Obama.

Maybe that will push some voters toward Obama in 2012 -- the sorts who voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but for McCain in 2008?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2616 on: September 24, 2009, 04:46:57 pm »
« Edited: September 25, 2009, 08:44:03 am by pbrower2a »

OH poll averages a recent one into a tie; old polls for IN and NE-02 are no longer relevant.

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change08
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« Reply #2617 on: September 24, 2009, 06:22:58 pm »

NY: 2010 Sen, Gov (Marist 9/22)

Marist
9/22/09; 616 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews and IVR

New York

Do you think it's right or wrong for the White House to suggest that Governor Paterson should not run for office next year?
27% Right, 62% Wrong

Do you agree or disagree that having David PAterson on the ticket would hurt other Democratic canddiates running in new York next year?
43% Agree, 41% Disagree

Do you want David Paterson to run for governor in 2010, or not?
25% Yes, 63% No

Job Approval
Gov. Paterson: 17% Excellent/Good, 79% Fair/Poor
Pres. Obama: 52 / 46

2010 Senate
Giuliani 51%, Gillibrand 40%
Pataki 45%, Gillibrand 41%


ROFL!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2618 on: September 25, 2009, 01:59:43 am »

New York (Rasmussen)Sad

61% Approve
38% Disapprove

This national telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/new_york_senate_gillibrand_narrowly_leads_pataki

NY still loves a black.

But hates the other one.

Well, yeah.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2619 on: September 25, 2009, 07:14:26 am »

California (Rasmussen)Sad

60% Approve
39% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 23, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/california/toplines/toplines_2010_california_senate_september_23_2009
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Rowan
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« Reply #2620 on: September 25, 2009, 08:29:13 am »

Ohio(Rasmussen)

Approve 48%
Disapprove 50%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_senate_race_september_25_2009
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2621 on: September 25, 2009, 11:46:58 am »


Rounds up to 50% approval nicely. We can keep OH green on the map.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #2622 on: September 25, 2009, 12:21:47 pm »

Gallup:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 42%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2623 on: September 25, 2009, 12:53:07 pm »
« Edited: September 25, 2009, 02:59:38 pm by pbrower2a »

Yes, they do average out slightly above 50% for Obama.


[/quote]
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Rowan
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« Reply #2624 on: September 25, 2009, 12:57:51 pm »

Why are we picking and choosing when to average and when not to average?
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