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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1023526 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #2675 on: September 29, 2009, 05:11:35 pm »


Strongly Disapprove well over 50% too.  Doesn't seem to be all that much substance to the idea of white southern voters swinging Democratic more than any group in '12.
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change08
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« Reply #2676 on: September 29, 2009, 06:20:40 pm »


Aww shucks. i thought Obama would be hitting 60% of the vote in 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2677 on: September 29, 2009, 09:10:07 pm »

Arkansas again, and it doesn't look pretty to Democrats even as an average:


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2678 on: September 30, 2009, 01:16:35 am »

NC (Civitas)Sad

44% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/health-care-reform-flash-poll
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2679 on: September 30, 2009, 01:25:00 am »

Arizona (ASU/Cronkite/Eight)Sad

49% Approve
44% Disapprove

"While 79 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents give the president positive ratings, only 18 percent of Republicans say he is doing a good job."

The poll was conducted by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET. The statewide sample of 724 registered voters was 37 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 29 percent Independent. Fifty-nine percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 16 percent in Pima County and 25 percent in Arizona’s other counties. Forty-eight percent of the voters interviewed are men and 52 percent are women. The sampling error for the survey was plus or minus 3.6 percent.

http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2009/9-29-09.htm
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2680 on: September 30, 2009, 07:40:19 am »

New Jersey (Quinnipiac)Sad

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

From September 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1377
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2681 on: September 30, 2009, 08:20:11 am »


Here we go again with two states (AZ, NC) that the GOP nominee can't afford to lose in 2012, and a fairly-large one out of reach for the GOP except in a landslide (NJ):

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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2682 on: September 30, 2009, 09:38:29 am »

New Jersey is out of reach except in a landslide?  It's only 8% more Democratic than the country.  That's barely more than Obama won by.  Was 2012 a landslide?  Conversely Texas is 19% more Republican than the country, yet is almost certain to be competitive?  What logic suggests this?  And for the record, Michigan is about half as far from the national average as Texas, so stop trying to compare the two.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #2683 on: September 30, 2009, 10:41:23 am »

you can't tell a hack anything.
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Farage
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« Reply #2684 on: September 30, 2009, 10:58:04 am »

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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2685 on: September 30, 2009, 11:45:09 am »

New Jersey is out of reach except in a landslide?  It's only 8% more Democratic than the country.  That's barely more than Obama won by.  Was 2012 a landslide?  Conversely Texas is 19% more Republican than the country, yet is almost certain to be competitive?  What logic suggests this?  And for the record, Michigan is about half as far from the national average as Texas, so stop trying to compare the two.

I think I can take this one for pbower2.

The age wave, you see, is causing a dramatic shift in the direction of the Democratic Party. The states Obama won in 2008 are now dubbed "the blue firewall," meaning its almost certain that any Democratic nominee will begin with 365 electoral votes before any primary votes have been cast. New Jersey is in that firewall and is basically unwinnible for any far-rightist (Republican) for the foreseeable future except if the Republicans are able to steal the next election, which may happen considering they forgot to rig the election machines in 2006 and 2008.

As for your inane Texas argument; what don't you understand? The youth in Texas are overwhelmingly Democratic and Hispanics are switching parties as we speak. It way have been 19% more GOP in 2008, but that is only because the age wave has not taken full effect. I expect it will be a swing state/lean D come 2012 after Obama saves us from certain collapse. If the age wave is as powerful as I am conceding, we can expect a map like this come 2012. The only states that are safe from this tsunami of people who are looking for change are the ones full of Christian bigots, right wing extremists, and idiotic supply siders. Also expect a gigantic swing of southern white voters to Obama in 2012 after his stimulus package is in full effect, netting Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia. They will realize Obama's policies benefit them much more than the Republican tax cuts for the rich and corporate welfare. America has woken up and rejected the theocracy/fascist regime we were forced to live in during the Bush years!

As for my accurate map:

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2686 on: September 30, 2009, 01:01:17 pm »


New Jersey is out of reach except in a landslide?  It's only 8% more Democratic than the country.  That's barely more than Obama won by.  Was 2012 a landslide?  Conversely Texas is 19% more Republican than the country, yet is almost certain to be competitive?  What logic suggests this?  And for the record, Michigan is about half as far from the national average as Texas, so stop trying to compare the two.

Let's put it this way: if New Jersey goes GOP, then the GOP has a landslide.  If you accept that the eighteen states and DC that haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1988 all went by more than 10% for Obama and will comprise about 240 electoral votes (in other words, if the GOP nominee manages to win everything else, which would be Kerry 2004 without New Mexico or Gore 2000 without Iowa and New Mexico, then that nominee would win about 300 electoral votes. That's about what JFK did in 1960 in a close election.

Beyond that, the GOP nominee has to pick up such states as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to get into the range of 340 electoral votes.

In fact the zone between 310 and 360 electoral votes is quite unstable for any Presidential nominee.  A candidate can take low-risk efforts to improve his position when he thinks he has a floor of 250 or so electoral votes -- campaign a little more in a few marginal places, and cut deals with critical special interest groups, and one might do fine. When that floor drops to 220 or so the candidate knows that he is losing badly and must take chances that risk doing far worse or get a slight chance of winning.

So imagine the scenario if Obama knew that he needed about 30 more electoral votes to have a real chance to win, and the only opportunity were a longshot known as Texas, with 34 electoral votes which he has about a 10% chance of winning as states like Iowa and Pennsylvania fade away from him. So he blitzes Texas with ads and campaign appearances.  By doing so he may be exposing himself to losses of states like Michigan and Washington, but what could he do?

(If you think that that is absurd, think of what John McCain tried to do in Pennsylvania late in the 2008 election. His efforts there cost him the chance to win some states that the GOP absolutely needed but that weren't adequate for winning).

Of course, under about 180 electoral votes (about a third of the total, or 2/3 of what is necessary to win), the candidate knows that he has practically no chance and starts thinking about other ways to enhance his political career. Maybe the Senate or the Governor's Mansion isn't so bad after all. 

Texas is out of reach in 2012, and like such states as new Jersey and Michigan it goes into play only when the winning side is on the brink of winning 400+ electoral votes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2687 on: September 30, 2009, 01:03:03 pm »

Virginia (Rasmussen)Sad

52% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_september_29_2009
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2688 on: September 30, 2009, 01:11:51 pm »
« Edited: September 30, 2009, 01:15:21 pm by fezzyfestoon »


New Jersey is out of reach except in a landslide?  It's only 8% more Democratic than the country.  That's barely more than Obama won by.  Was 2012 a landslide?  Conversely Texas is 19% more Republican than the country, yet is almost certain to be competitive?  What logic suggests this?  And for the record, Michigan is about half as far from the national average as Texas, so stop trying to compare the two.

Blah, blah, blah, I like to pull made up rules out of my ass instead of answering questions asked of me when I make up numbers and then decide to ignore the real numbers.

Do you ever get dizzy when you post here?

That post reminded me of Sarah Palin's infamous interview.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2689 on: September 30, 2009, 01:14:41 pm »

Maine (Democracy Corps)Sad

62% Approve
34% Disapprove

Based on a survey of 808 registered voters in Maine conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, September 23-27, 2009.  Margin of error 3.5 percent.

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/mesw092709fq1web.pdf
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2690 on: September 30, 2009, 02:05:32 pm »


Obama is more popular in Virginia than he is nationally? er...
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jimmie
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« Reply #2691 on: September 30, 2009, 02:13:44 pm »

Obama is flippin' insane.
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change08
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« Reply #2692 on: September 30, 2009, 02:17:23 pm »


Well it is Rasmussen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2693 on: September 30, 2009, 03:26:33 pm »

For those who don't like seeing the very dark pine green color on Maine, it does go down a bit to something more credible:




I'd love to see new results for Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and NE-02...
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #2694 on: September 30, 2009, 07:04:27 pm »


The Deeds numbers don't match up either.  Weird.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2695 on: October 01, 2009, 03:38:02 am »

Arkansas again, and it doesn't look pretty to Democrats even as an average:





Obama could probably get us to 3% unemployment and still lose Arkansas. 
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2696 on: October 01, 2009, 09:08:36 am »

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac)Sad

49% Approve
42% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1379
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2697 on: October 01, 2009, 09:20:18 am »

New Jersey (Monmouth University)Sad

RV: 54% Approve, 33% Disapprove
LV: 52% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP29_1.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2698 on: October 01, 2009, 10:06:08 am »

First two October polls:



Note that I DO NOT round up positive approval polls under 50% even if they are 49-42 (as in Pennsylvania).
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Rowan
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« Reply #2699 on: October 01, 2009, 11:36:20 am »

Delaware(Rasmussen)

Approve 54%
Disapprove 45%


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/delaware/toplines/toplines_delaware_senate_september_30_2009
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