The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wisconsin (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute)

57.4% Approve
40.4% Disapprove

Good to see, but inaccurate.  Plus, it's all adults, not even just registered voters.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monroe County (Mason-Dixon)

26% Excellent
25% Good
20% Fair
29% Poor

2008: 58% Obama, 41% McCain

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/assets/pdf/A2143666102.PDF

"Fair" is not necessarily a negative assessment. That could mean "I approve, but he could be doing better"

[Sam Spade]

SUSA’s Monthly numbers are out:

Alabama: 37/61
California: 62/33
Iowa: 46/48
Kansas: 39/57
Kentucky: 39/57
Minnesota: 55/40
Missouri: 44/54
New Mexico: 50/45
New York: 63/33
Oregon: 59/37
Virginia: 49/48
Washington: 53/42
Wisconsin: 47/47

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StateTracking.html

Still extrapolates to 49%-50% approval nationally, not much different than last month.

[xavier110]

Kentucky - Rasmussen
47% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/toplines/toplines_2010_kentucky_senate_september_30_2009

Don't ask!

[Eraserhead]

wtf

Well, that's cool, I guess.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky - Rasmussen
47% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/toplines/toplines_2010_kentucky_senate_september_30_2009

Don't ask!

Kentucky? Momentous!

Should the GOP have to defend Kentucky, then it has lost.

[Alcon]

A five-margin disapproval in Kentucky, the same day SUSA shows an 18-point disapproval, is "momentous"?

And I would point out the ludicrousness of Kentucky randomly being the tipping-point state, and one poll being the grounds to ignoring national polls, but...eh.

[Mr. Morden]

Kentucky? Momentous!

You mean like New Jersey was momentous in the other direction? 

[tmthforu94]

Should the Democrats have to defend New Jersey, then it has lost.

[Eraserhead]

Should the Democrats have to defend New Jersey, then it has lost.

Christie can't even beat Corzine and you think one these jokers is going to give Obama a run for his money there?

[pbrower2a]

Should the Democrats have to defend New Jersey, then it has lost.

Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election. I look at the 2008 election, and rather few states were really close. McCain won it by a 16.22% margin, which is in the range of the states that Clinton won but Obama got clobbered in. A bigger margin than Texas, mind you.

The five-point margin surprises me, but it is from Rasmussen, so what do you want to believe? I've ordinarily thought Rasmusseen R-leaning, so it's unlikely to be an outlier.   I'd like to see corroboration in polls in other states that voted like Kentucky in the last 20 years (Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia) -- or debunking.   

 

[CJK]

Nope. Kentucky is R+23, New Jersey is D+8

[ajc0918]

Nope. Kentucky is R+23, New Jersey is D+8

Actually Kentucky is R+11 and New Jersey is D+7. I got these from wiki so they could be wrong.

[fezzyfestoon]

Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election.

I don't know where you keep coming up with these total bullshit comparisons.  Kentucky was 23.49% more Republican than the country, New Jersey was 8.26% more Democratic.  Not even close to being comparable.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen has overtaken Gallup:

51-49 vs. 50-43

AP-GfK:

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

NJ (Rasmussen)

57% Approve
42% Disapprove

[Mr.Phips]

Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election.

I don't know where you keep coming up with these total bullshit comparisons.  Kentucky was 23.49% more Republican than the country, New Jersey was 8.26% more Democratic.  Not even close to being comparable.

Going by the 2008 results, New Jersey was four points more Democratic than the nation as a whole and Kentucky 11 points more Republican. 

[Tender Branson]

California (Field Poll)

[fezzyfestoon]

Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election.

I don't know where you keep coming up with these total bullshit comparisons.  Kentucky was 23.49% more Republican than the country, New Jersey was 8.26% more Democratic.  Not even close to being comparable.

Going by the 2008 results, New Jersey was four points more Democratic than the nation as a whole and Kentucky 11 points more Republican. 

McCain won Kentucky by 16.22% added to the 7.27% Obama margin is 23.49% more Republican.
Obama won New Jersey by 15.53% minus the 7.27% margin is 8.26% more Democratic.

[pbrower2a]

Obama didn't campaign much in Kentucky... but he did in North Carolina (which he barely won) and Georgia (until he gave it up when he had to defend a few states that he absolutely had to win). Such made a huge difference. About all the campaign activity was the buying of advertising time on Kentucky TV and radio stations in Louisville, Paducah,  Ashland, and southeastern Kentucky that reach into battleground states (Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Virginia) .

I don't know how genuine the 47-53 split is; Obama would absolutely not win Kentucky with that sort of disapproval. Mike Huckabee would clearly win Kentucky because his political culture fits Kentucky well. But Romney or Pawlenty? Don't be so sure. The 2008 election was between a d@mnyankee and someone (John McCain) with southern cultural roots. Unless Huckabee wins the Democratic nomination, the 2012 election will be between two d@mnyankee Northerners.

Question: can Obama win over the southern populist vote? That vote turned against him in 2008. But should Obama get populist-like results, that vote might turn on the GOP.

In any event the 2012 US Senate race in Kentucky will be interesting.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?

[Tender Branson]

Louisiana (Rasmussen)

41% Approve
59% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/louisiana/toplines/toplines_election_2010_louisiana_senate_race_october_5_2009

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina:

PPP: 45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1006.pdf

Civitas: 44% Approve, 53% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/obama-moves-negative-territory

[pbrower2a]

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?

His family is from Mississippi.

[tmthforu94]

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?

His family is from Mississippi.

I bet less than 5% of America knows that. It's a complete non-factor.

[Tender Branson]

New Hampshire (UNH/WMUR Granite State Poll)

55% Approve
40% Disapprove

56% Favorable
35% Unfavorable

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 503 randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 25 and October 2, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.4 percent.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_fall_presapp100709.pdf