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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022475 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #2725 on: October 04, 2009, 11:24:50 am »

Wisconsin (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute)Sad

57.4% Approve
40.4% Disapprove

Good to see, but inaccurate.  Plus, it's all adults, not even just registered voters.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #2726 on: October 04, 2009, 12:32:55 pm »

Monroe County (Mason-Dixon)Sad

26% Excellent
25% Good
20% Fair
29% Poor

2008: 58% Obama, 41% McCain

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/assets/pdf/A2143666102.PDF

"Fair" is not necessarily a negative assessment. That could mean "I approve, but he could be doing better"
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2727 on: October 05, 2009, 05:04:23 pm »

SUSA’s Monthly numbers are out:

Alabama: 37/61
California: 62/33
Iowa: 46/48
Kansas: 39/57
Kentucky: 39/57
Minnesota: 55/40
Missouri: 44/54
New Mexico: 50/45
New York: 63/33
Oregon: 59/37
Virginia: 49/48
Washington: 53/42
Wisconsin: 47/47

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StateTracking.html


Still extrapolates to 49%-50% approval nationally, not much different than last month.
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xavier110
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« Reply #2728 on: October 05, 2009, 06:25:02 pm »

Kentucky - Rasmussen
47% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/toplines/toplines_2010_kentucky_senate_september_30_2009

Don't ask!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2729 on: October 05, 2009, 06:28:18 pm »

wtf

Well, that's cool, I guess.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2730 on: October 05, 2009, 11:22:21 pm »


Kentucky? Momentous!



Should the GOP have to defend Kentucky, then it has lost.

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Alcon
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« Reply #2731 on: October 05, 2009, 11:27:16 pm »

A five-margin disapproval in Kentucky, the same day SUSA shows an 18-point disapproval, is "momentous"?

And I would point out the ludicrousness of Kentucky randomly being the tipping-point state, and one poll being the grounds to ignoring national polls, but...eh.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2732 on: October 06, 2009, 12:45:23 am »


You mean like New Jersey was momentous in the other direction?  Wink
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2733 on: October 06, 2009, 11:46:53 am »

Should the Democrats have to defend New Jersey, then it has lost.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2734 on: October 06, 2009, 11:52:35 am »

Should the Democrats have to defend New Jersey, then it has lost.

Christie can't even beat Corzine and you think one these jokers is going to give Obama a run for his money there?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2735 on: October 06, 2009, 02:20:18 pm »

Should the Democrats have to defend New Jersey, then it has lost.



Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election. I look at the 2008 election, and rather few states were really close. McCain won it by a 16.22% margin, which is in the range of the states that Clinton won but Obama got clobbered in. A bigger margin than Texas, mind you.

The five-point margin surprises me, but it is from Rasmussen, so what do you want to believe? I've ordinarily thought Rasmusseen R-leaning, so it's unlikely to be an outlier.   I'd like to see corroboration in polls in other states that voted like Kentucky in the last 20 years (Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia) -- or debunking.   

 
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CJK
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« Reply #2736 on: October 06, 2009, 05:04:32 pm »

Nope. Kentucky is R+23, New Jersey is D+8
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2737 on: October 06, 2009, 05:18:18 pm »

Nope. Kentucky is R+23, New Jersey is D+8

Actually Kentucky is R+11 and New Jersey is D+7. I got these from wiki so they could be wrong.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2738 on: October 06, 2009, 08:26:49 pm »

Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election.

I don't know where you keep coming up with these total bullshit comparisons.  Kentucky was 23.49% more Republican than the country, New Jersey was 8.26% more Democratic.  Not even close to being comparable.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2739 on: October 07, 2009, 12:25:42 am »

Rasmussen has overtaken Gallup:

51-49 vs. 50-43

AP-GfK:

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

NJ (Rasmussen)Sad

57% Approve
42% Disapprove
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2740 on: October 07, 2009, 12:50:48 am »

Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election.

I don't know where you keep coming up with these total bullshit comparisons.  Kentucky was 23.49% more Republican than the country, New Jersey was 8.26% more Democratic.  Not even close to being comparable.

Going by the 2008 results, New Jersey was four points more Democratic than the nation as a whole and Kentucky 11 points more Republican. 
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2741 on: October 07, 2009, 08:13:43 am »

California (Field Poll)Sad

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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2742 on: October 07, 2009, 08:52:24 am »
« Edited: October 07, 2009, 07:34:23 pm by fezzyfestoon »

Of course. New Jersey is about as far away from being a Republican pickoff in a 50-50 election as Kentucky is from being a Democratic pickoff in a 50-50 election.
I don't know where you keep coming up with these total bullshit comparisons.  Kentucky was 23.49% more Republican than the country, New Jersey was 8.26% more Democratic.  Not even close to being comparable.
Going by the 2008 results, New Jersey was four points more Democratic than the nation as a whole and Kentucky 11 points more Republican. 

McCain won Kentucky by 16.22% added to the 7.27% Obama margin is 23.49% more Republican.
Obama won New Jersey by 15.53% minus the 7.27% margin is 8.26% more Democratic.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2743 on: October 07, 2009, 11:52:27 am »

Obama didn't campaign much in Kentucky... but he did in North Carolina (which he barely won) and Georgia (until he gave it up when he had to defend a few states that he absolutely had to win). Such made a huge difference. About all the campaign activity was the buying of advertising time on Kentucky TV and radio stations in Louisville, Paducah,  Ashland, and southeastern Kentucky that reach into battleground states (Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Virginia) .

I don't know how genuine the 47-53 split is; Obama would absolutely not win Kentucky with that sort of disapproval. Mike Huckabee would clearly win Kentucky because his political culture fits Kentucky well. But Romney or Pawlenty? Don't be so sure. The 2008 election was between a d@mnyankee and someone (John McCain) with southern cultural roots. Unless Huckabee wins the Democratic nomination, the 2012 election will be between two d@mnyankee Northerners.

Question: can Obama win over the southern populist vote? That vote turned against him in 2008. But should Obama get populist-like results, that vote might turn on the GOP.

In any event the 2012 US Senate race in Kentucky will be interesting.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2744 on: October 07, 2009, 12:00:40 pm »

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2745 on: October 07, 2009, 12:15:08 pm »
« Edited: October 08, 2009, 02:30:12 pm by Tender Branson »

Louisiana (Rasmussen)Sad

41% Approve
59% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/louisiana/toplines/toplines_election_2010_louisiana_senate_race_october_5_2009
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2746 on: October 07, 2009, 12:31:25 pm »

North Carolina:

PPP: 45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1006.pdf

Civitas: 44% Approve, 53% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/obama-moves-negative-territory
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2747 on: October 07, 2009, 07:51:06 pm »

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?

His family is from Mississippi.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2748 on: October 07, 2009, 07:52:10 pm »

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?

His family is from Mississippi.
I bet less than 5% of America knows that. It's a complete non-factor.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2749 on: October 08, 2009, 02:28:34 pm »

New Hampshire (UNH/WMUR Granite State Poll)Sad

55% Approve
40% Disapprove

56% Favorable
35% Unfavorable

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 503 randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 25 and October 2, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.4 percent.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_fall_presapp100709.pdf
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