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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022275 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #2750 on: October 08, 2009, 02:39:56 pm »



The odd 50-50 tie in New Hampshire vanishes.

Louisiana update -- it looks as if Obama isn't popular there, but neither is the Republican Senator (understandable in view of a sex scandal)-- or (to my surprise) Governor.  A governor having problems with popularity in his own state (unless he belongs to the minority Party in his state) seems to have greatly-reduced chances of winning a Presidential nomination. 

North Carolina -- two polls, and they average to about 45-51. That's not much of a change from what I showed last time, but it just goes over the line of 50% disapproval, and so the darker hue. Now you see why I average polls out.

Tennessee, anyone? Georgia? South Carolina? Mississippi (which has never been polled since the election)?

It looks as if trust for politicians of all political stripes is down -- way down -- in the South. Conservative Republicans may not be delivering the goods there, and should Obama build trust in that region of America, then Election Night, 2012, will be a very short one for media spin.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2751 on: October 08, 2009, 08:06:21 pm »

power2, who is green and who is yellow on the map?
Green are states where Obama has a positive approval rating where yellow states are where he doesn't. White is a tie and grey is unpolled/old polling.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2752 on: October 08, 2009, 08:28:14 pm »

power2, who is green and who is yellow on the map?

Green -- states in which the approval for Barack Obama is greater than disapproval, as measured in the latest poll or average of most recent polls. Pale green is under 50%; medium green is 50-55%; dark green is 55% to 64%; very dark green is an approval greater than 64%.  

White is an exact tie in which approval and approval are both under 50%. Aqua (which I have used once) is for a rare 50-50 tie.

Shades of yellow indicate disapproval greater than approval for Obama. In such cases, a pale yellow indicates disapproval under 50%, beige disapproval 50% to 55%, and tan disapproval  56% to 65%. Genuine brown indicates disapproval of 55% or more (I have never seen any place with such a polling, but I presume it for Nebraska's Third District (there was an unflattering poll for Nebraska at large, and NE-03 is the arguably the most right-leaning district or State that figures to offer electoral votes.  If Obama's disapproval is 64% in Nebraska at large, then NE-03 probably gives about 70% disapproval.

Gray indicates that the state has never been polled (Alaska, DC, North Dakota,  Mississippi, and Vermont) or most recently showed greater approval than disapproval for Barack Obama six months or more ago (Indiana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Nebraska's Third District. Obama either lost those states or barely won the state or district in 2008 (which would now make such a poll suspect or worthless).

I am not coloring Idaho or Utah gray because nobody has reasonable cause to believe that those states, two of which most strongly voted for John McCain, would reasonably give a positive approval for Obama, and the last poll showed more disapproval than approval. Idaho and Utah surely disapprove more sharply than the pale yellow suggests, but I can't say how much right now.

As it is now, if Obama wins every state now in any shade of green, Vermont, and the District of Columbia (the latter two among the strongest voters for Obama in 2008), he would win re-election in 2012. It's very hard to lose a state when one has 50% or stronger approval in a Presidential election or stronger approval than disapproval.  All of those states voted for Obama by at least 9% in 2008.

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia have been jumping from one 'camp' to another (Wisconsin and Ohio are in that group).

Do I have a conclusion? Sure!  Political support for Obama is pretty much where it was in 2008 and disapproval is largely where he was voted against. The polarization of American politics remains severe.
      
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2753 on: October 09, 2009, 12:06:22 am »

Virginia (Washington Post)Sad

RV: 58% Approve, 39% Disapprove
LV: 53% Approve, 46% Disapprove

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100709.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2754 on: October 09, 2009, 12:11:58 am »
« Edited: October 09, 2009, 08:06:54 am by pbrower2a »

Here is a map more of electoral history in America since 1992 than anything else. That's sixteen years and five Presidential elections:



Eighteen states and the District of Columbia haven't voted for a Republican nominee for President after 1988, and all voted for Obama by a double-digit margin in 2008 -- and those states and DC will account for about 240 electoral votes in 2012 after reapportionment.  It's possible for a Republican nominee to win the Presidential nominee  to win election without those states and without the states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico) that barely voted for Dubya once. To win more than 300 electoral votes, the GOP nominee for President  must cut into the so-called Blue Firewall, which requires an effective assault on the political culture in some states best described as aggressively secular and comparatively liberal. A Southern reactionary won't do that job, and will not only lose the whole Blue Firewall but also Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico as well.

Who runs of course matters greatly.

At that point the GOP has plenty of ways to lose -- Virginia, Ohio, or Florida singly, or a combination of Colorado and Nevada. That's before I even discuss such states as North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, Montana, NE-02, or Arizona that Obama wins only if he wins certain other states (he's not going to win North Carolina without winning Virginia, Indiana or Missouri without winning Ohio, Georgia without winning Florida, or Arizona without winning Colorado and Nevada) in an electoral year similar to 2008, or any of the states that Clinton could win but in which Obama got clobbered in in 2008 . Any wins -- or even near-misses -- in any of those states (in green) would suggest that Obama has resuscitated the Clinton coalition with Huckabee not having won the GOP nomination.

Anything in blue hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since at least Jimmy Carter in 1976 or LBJ in 1964, and not one of them was close in 2008. Ignore shades of blue.
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Smid
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« Reply #2755 on: October 09, 2009, 12:16:35 am »

The US should probably just do away with General Elections once and for all and just hold Democrat primaries instead.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2756 on: October 09, 2009, 12:17:14 am »
« Edited: October 09, 2009, 12:19:45 am by pbrower2a »

Only one state (Virginia)



... but it is absolutely essential to any Republican victory, just like Florida, Ohio, or a combination of Colorado and Nevada.

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Zarn
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« Reply #2757 on: October 09, 2009, 08:19:55 am »

Actually Virginia isn't essential. It just increases it's chances, significantly.

The 2010 realignment changes everything.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #2758 on: October 09, 2009, 08:30:26 am »

Do we think there will be a boost from Obama's Nobel Prize win?
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ChrisJG777
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« Reply #2759 on: October 09, 2009, 08:37:51 am »

Do we think there will be a boost from Obama's Nobel Prize win?

The way I see it there might be a bit of a boost amongst some people, though at the same time the cynic in me sees others to view Obama less positively, considering how early on in his presidency he received the prize some might see it as coming too early or something like that.
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CJK
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« Reply #2760 on: October 09, 2009, 08:42:13 am »

Do we think there will be a boost from Obama's Nobel Prize win?

Only if he turns it down.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2761 on: October 09, 2009, 08:43:50 am »

Actually Virginia isn't essential. It just increases it's chances, significantly.

The 2010 realignment changes everything.

The Republicans haven't won a Presidential election without winning Virginia since 1924. To win the Presidential election without winning Virginia the Republicans would have to pick off either Pennsylvania or two of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Democrats can win and have won without Virginia (1960, 1976, 1992, 1996).  

The Blue Firewall was 248 electoral votes in 2008 and I expect about eight congressional seats to disappear from those states in 2010; Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico comprised 15 electoral votes in 2008 and will be roughly the same in 2012. Virginia might gain a seat. With 14 electoral votes in Virginia and a loss of 8 electoral votes in the Blue Firewall, Obama gets 269 electoral votes and state delegations decide who becomes President. New Mexico wins a Congressional seat, and Obama wins with Virginia.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2762 on: October 09, 2009, 09:20:57 am »

Do we think there will be a boost from Obama's Nobel Prize win?

Any Nobel Peace Prize for President Barack Obama is premature. Obama has yet to bring peace to either Iraq or Afghanistan. For getting a settlement in Korea, Dwight Eisenhower deserved a Nobel Peace Prize far more than does Barack Obama.  He might get credit for not making the same mistakes as George W Bush... but Nobel Prizes are not awarded for "not doing bad" or "not being as bad" as a predecessor.

It's hard to figure the Nobel Prize committee, and the Prize may have been awarded to strengthen the President's standing against nutty regimes in Iran and North Korea. If t takes a Peace Prize to get Ahmedinedjad or Kim Jong-il to do the right thing -- it's better that a Nobel Peace Prize be awarded to a scoundrel than that some scoundrel shoot missiles at Tel Aviv or Seattle. Some sacrifices are worth them.

It's too early to be of any use in the 2012 election.
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CJK
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« Reply #2763 on: October 09, 2009, 10:38:51 am »

Do we think there will be a boost from Obama's Nobel Prize win?

Any Nobel Peace Prize for President Barack Obama is premature.

The understatement of the century.

And, no its not to "strengthen" his hand, its to weaken it. Will the man who got the Nobel Peace Prize vigorously prosecute two wars and use force to stop Iran?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2764 on: October 09, 2009, 11:20:49 am »

Do we think there will be a boost from Obama's Nobel Prize win?

Any Nobel Peace Prize for President Barack Obama is premature.

The understatement of the century.

And, no its not to "strengthen" his hand, its to weaken it. Will the man who got the Nobel Peace Prize vigorously prosecute two wars and use force to stop Iran?

I doubt it would have any real impact on his decisions. Hopefully he won't do either of those things anyway though.
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Vepres
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« Reply #2765 on: October 09, 2009, 06:20:16 pm »

Obama's approvals are basically hovering around what the popular vote in the election was. Those who voted for him still approve for the most part though some are probably frustrated with health care. I wonder when one side will start gaining as I cannot see this level of polarization lasting throughout the administration.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2766 on: October 09, 2009, 07:12:34 pm »

Obama's approvals are basically hovering around what the popular vote in the election was. Those who voted for him still approve for the most part though some are probably frustrated with health care. I wonder when one side will start gaining as I cannot see this level of polarization lasting throughout the administration.

We are a very polarized country.  I could definately see this polarization continuing for quite a while. 
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« Reply #2767 on: October 10, 2009, 12:16:11 am »

John McCain was southern? He was born in Panama, went to boarding school in Alexandria, and then settled in Arizona. How is he southern?

His family is from Mississippi.
I bet less than 5% of America knows that. It's a complete non-factor.

Less than .05%, you mean. I was unaware of that until just now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2768 on: October 11, 2009, 07:19:29 am »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

46% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 6 through October 8, 2009. A total of 500 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/october_2009_2_polls.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2769 on: October 11, 2009, 09:13:02 am »

Nevada checks in, and it has nothing to do with any Nobel Peace Prize:



Really, Nevada is a pipe dream for the GOP in 2012, and not because of the surprising margin for Obama in 2008. If it's close, then a bunch of California Democrats will have such a huge presence in the Obama campaign effort in Nevada, many will even take up legal residence in Nevada so that they can vote there. If it isn't close, then the Obama campaign will do that in Arizona instead.

The GOP can win in 2012 without Nevada, but it would have to win everything else that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004. 
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Vepres
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« Reply #2770 on: October 11, 2009, 09:40:23 am »

Nevada checks in, and it has nothing to do with any Nobel Peace Prize:



Really, Nevada is a pipe dream for the GOP in 2012, and not because of the surprising margin for Obama in 2008. If it's close, then a bunch of California Democrats will have such a huge presence in the Obama campaign effort in Nevada, many will even take up legal residence in Nevada so that they can vote there. If it isn't close, then the Obama campaign will do that in Arizona instead.

The GOP can win in 2012 without Nevada, but it would have to win everything else that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004. 

I wouldn't be so sure. Nevada is pretty anti-federal government, at least rural voters are. Now, I don't have any data for Nevada, but I do know that Hispanics are starting to turn against Republicans in Colorado. Now, obviously, by turn against I mean going from 60 approve to 45 approve. Plus, the longer the Las Vegas real estate problems go on, the harder it will be for Democrats to regain those voters.

If Reid is somehow defeated, I think Nevada goes from lean-Dem to toss-up in 2012.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2771 on: October 11, 2009, 09:42:26 am »

No of course it's a pipe dream! Pbrower knows all!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2772 on: October 11, 2009, 11:59:07 am »

Nevada checks in, and it has nothing to do with any Nobel Peace Prize:



Really, Nevada is a pipe dream for the GOP in 2012, and not because of the surprising margin for Obama in 2008. If it's close, then a bunch of California Democrats will have such a huge presence in the Obama campaign effort in Nevada, many will even take up legal residence in Nevada so that they can vote there. If it isn't close, then the Obama campaign will do that in Arizona instead.

The GOP can win in 2012 without Nevada, but it would have to win everything else that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004. 

I wouldn't be so sure. Nevada is pretty anti-federal government, at least rural voters are. Now, I don't have any data for Nevada, but I do know that Hispanics are starting to turn against Republicans in Colorado. Now, obviously, by turn against I mean going from 60 approve to 45 approve. Plus, the longer the Las Vegas real estate problems go on, the harder it will be for Democrats to regain those voters.

If Reid is somehow defeated, I think Nevada goes from lean-Dem to toss-up in 2012.

Senator John Ensign is even more vulnerable than Harry Reid -- if for different reasons. Should Ensign have to resign before November 2010, then his successor and Harry Reid will both be similarly vulnerable in a near 50-50 state.

Have you ever been in Nevada outside of Reno and Vegas? Rural Nevada might be firmly Republican, but that's not where the people are. The people are in Greater Reno-Carson City and Greater Las Vegas. A drive on Interstate 80 across the state gives quite a geography lesson; Interstate 80 in Nevada looks little like Interstate 80 in between Joliet and North Platte (farmland, farmland, and more farmland) even without the mountains.  I can only imagine the impression that Interstate 15 in Nevada creates -- one even sharper than Interstate 80 because Interstate 15 goes through outright desert.

Does Nevada have any large population centers outside of Greater Las Vegas and Greater Reno-Carson City? Only if you count such places as Elko, Battle Mountain, Winnemucca, Hawthorne, Ely, and Tonopah that act like large cities because they are in the middle of nowhere other than miles of rangeland in every direction with perhaps a little mining or a military base. Laughlin might as well be part of Vegas, and Henderson is part of Greater Las  Vegas, thank you. 

Urban Nevada seemed very Democratic in 2008, thank you. That's where the people are, and it would have to be split about 51-49 for the Republicans to have a chance in Nevada.

Harry Reid is vulnerable for some unpopular deeds -- mostly in attempting to keep federal lands locked up so that urban Nevada remains overpriced. That has nothing to do with Obama.  His behavior may have made the economic hardships in Las Vegas all the more severe. Obama gets no blame for that. Should the economy pick up at all, Las Vegas will do better, and Obama will get the credit.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2773 on: October 11, 2009, 12:01:53 pm »

No of course it's a pipe dream! Pbrower knows all!

No -- I just know how Obama campaigned in 2008 and expect much the same in 2012.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2774 on: October 11, 2009, 12:07:01 pm »

All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

That's kind of a weird model.
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