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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1009702 times)
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Hashemite
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« Reply #3050 on: November 24, 2009, 04:01:17 pm »

"Do you support or oppose  President Obama’s
health care plan"

A crappy question.
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« Reply #3051 on: November 24, 2009, 06:14:52 pm »

Every President has a low point like this where the glow of the Inauguration has worn off.  Right now it looks like everything is slow going with the economy, health care, whatever, so Obama's getting hit right now. But it's a long way from 2012, so he has time to recover.

And he will. There's going to be some job-creation measure passed before November. The date for the KSM trial will be set, nothing will happen because of the announcement, health care will pass. Things will start looking up next summer while the Republicans will still be talking gloom. The contrast will boost his poll numbers.
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« Reply #3052 on: November 24, 2009, 08:26:56 pm »

Rasmussen is 45-54 approve-disapprove today.
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Applezz
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« Reply #3053 on: November 24, 2009, 10:01:40 pm »


I still don't understand what the colors and letters in the map stand for. Can you please give a key or explain what they stand for.

Letters are codes for the months of the year in which the most recent poll has been taken. A is for January, B is for February... I is for September, J is for October, K is for November, and L will be for December. I have an asterisk for some small states that I can't remember the date of the last poll, but it seems consistent with Election 2008 and the state's electoral history. Hawaii and Rhode Island are the only two that fit that category, and a Republican wins those two only in a monumental (48- or 49-state, as in 1984) landslide. "Z" is for a state that hasn't been polled for more than six months; of those the only one that I have in color is Oklahoma, a state that would go to the Democrats only in something like a 45-state landslide.

I think using the letters as codes is a bad idea because the problem is that it's hard to remember which month is which letter. For example, I have to think in my head for a few minutes which letter November is.

Instead a better idea is to simply abbreviate the months.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3054 on: November 24, 2009, 10:36:06 pm »

...or number them.
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« Reply #3055 on: November 24, 2009, 11:11:25 pm »


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3056 on: November 25, 2009, 01:12:29 am »

Arizona (ASU)Sad

48% Approve
48% Disapprove

The poll was conducted Nov. 19-22 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET. The statewide sample of 862 registered voters was 36 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 30 percent Independent. Fifty-nine percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17 percent in Pima County and 24 percent in Arizonaís other counties. Forty-seven percent of the voters interviewed were men and 53 percent were women. The sampling error for the statewide sample survey is plus or minus 3.3 percent.

http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2009/11-24-09.htm
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« Reply #3057 on: November 25, 2009, 09:13:01 am »

Arizona (ASU)Sad

48% Approve
48% Disapprove

The poll was conducted Nov. 19-22 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET. The statewide sample of 862 registered voters was 36 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 30 percent Independent. Fifty-nine percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17 percent in Pima County and 24 percent in Arizonaís other counties. Forty-seven percent of the voters interviewed were men and 53 percent were women. The sampling error for the statewide sample survey is plus or minus 3.3 percent.

http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2009/11-24-09.htm

Garbage.

Anyway, I think you could legitimately say he is in pretty rough shape now. Of course, that doesn't mean he'll be in a bad way a year from now although he could be in even worse shape if the "trend" holds.

By the way, while Obama has fallen below 50% in Gallup's tracking poll he has still yet to do so in the classic USATODAY/Gallup poll. The newest one has approve-disapprove at 50%-46% which is still not very good obviously.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/25/usatgallup-obama-at-50/
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« Reply #3058 on: November 25, 2009, 09:44:32 am »



Ties in Wisconsin and Arizona. The tie in Wisconsin has nothing to which to average; the tie in Arizona does. I average 48-48 to 40-60 and I get 44-54 for Arizona. I count college polls, too.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3059 on: November 25, 2009, 09:49:52 am »

pbrower must be a climate change scientist.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3060 on: November 25, 2009, 10:10:29 am »

pbrower must be a climate change scientist.

HAHAHA, that was funny Smiley
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« Reply #3061 on: November 25, 2009, 10:15:01 am »

pbrower must be a climate change scientist.

I am not a scientist, but I appreciate the compliment.

The science behind climate change is far better than that of the denialists, thank you. Double-blind tests and peer review are the ways in which to establish credibility in science. Political predictions? There's far more statistical noise.   
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« Reply #3062 on: November 25, 2009, 12:01:32 pm »

New Jersey (Quinnipiac)Sad

51% Approve
42% Disapprove

From November 17 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,615 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1399

it's very bad for Obama and that confirms, if need, Rasmussen, gallup and fox polls.

The popularity of Obama was stable in September, october and in the first days of november but for one week, Obama is in free fall. Terrorist trial and health care are the causes for me.

Freefall? I can as easily interpret it as statistical noise. New Jersey? The current governor (the new one has yet to take office) was highly unpopular.

The Hard Right has been very loud in its denunciations of President Obama. Will the effects be permanent? Good question. It's had plenty of venom but practically no solutions that haven't been tried and found badly lacking. Some of those solutions have gotten us into the predicament that we are in.

On health care the Hard Right has nothing to offer but a system that rations health care by bank account; if you lack the money you just might die. Terrorism? We are finally going to put Khalid Sheikh Mohammed on trial in America with evidence and testimony that befits a country like the USA instead of some show trial. KSM will have no chance to use the trial to push his murderous ideology. When the Hard Right had command in America it was able to waterboard KSM for self-incriminating testimony that would surely violate the Constitution.

You can be sure that KSM will have no chance to use the federal courthouse as a forum for spreading his horrible ideology. David Lane, Timothy McVeigh, Richard Reid, and Ted Kaczynski got no chance  to so use the courtroom.

The only political hazard that I see from the trial is the potential for a judicial travesty. As a rule I do not predict the results of court cases. I can figure that the Department of Justice has done what it can to ensure that KSM will have no substantial case to appeal, including testimony acquired illegally as is the wont of the prior Administration.

it's not statistical noise when all polls say the same thing: barack in trouble.

And the problem is not to know if Obama and democrats are right, but it's to know what the american people thinks.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3063 on: November 25, 2009, 12:37:38 pm »

SurveyUSA has their monthly Obama approvals out today:

Alabama 38/59
California 53/38
Kansas 38/58
Kentucky 38/58
Missouri 38/58
New York 53/39
Oregon 47/47
Virginia 37/60
Washington 48/48

Brutal, just brutal.

The Iowa, New Mexico, and Minnesota numbers havenít been posted on the site. I will post here when they do.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3064 on: November 25, 2009, 12:46:52 pm »

SurveyUSA has their monthly Obama approvals out today:

Alabama 38/59
California 53/38
Kansas 38/58
Kentucky 38/58
Missouri 38/58
New York 53/39
Oregon 47/47
Virginia 37/60
Washington 48/48

Brutal, just brutal.

The Iowa, New Mexico, and Minnesota numbers havenít been posted on the site. I will post here when they do.

They didn't do Iowa, NM and Minnesota last month, so I wouldn't exactly expect them this month.

Spade's extrapolation of these numbers would have Obama's approval at 45%.  However, given the states polled, I suspect that's a point or two too low.  Still not good.
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« Reply #3065 on: November 25, 2009, 01:01:16 pm »
« Edited: November 25, 2009, 01:02:49 pm by Devilman88 »




I updated it with the SUSA numbers... Smiley
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Bernie Has No Path
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« Reply #3066 on: November 25, 2009, 01:04:22 pm »

pbrower must be a climate change scientist.

I am not a scientist, but I appreciate the compliment.

The science behind climate change is far better than that of the denialists, thank you. Double-blind tests and peer review are the ways in which to establish credibility in science. Political predictions? There's far more statistical noise.   

Climate change deniers, creationists, or any other of the conserative sects of the science community do not know what a peer review is. Therefore, your criticism is irrelavent.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3067 on: November 25, 2009, 01:12:21 pm »

I'm not a climate change denier, I don't believe in Global Warming. Our Climate is very unstable and has been from the start. I watched a TV show they other day on the Science channel talking about how in the Earth's history the climate went in cycle of unstable climate changes, up until about 10 thousands years ago. They also said that they believe that we are getting ready to come out of the clam climate stage, where the climate will change alot from year to year.
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« Reply #3068 on: November 25, 2009, 01:21:27 pm »

I'm not a climate change denier, I don't believe in Global Warming. Our Climate is very unstable and has been from the start. I watched a TV show they other day on the Science channel talking about how in the Earth's history the climate went in cycle of unstable climate changes, up until about 10 thousands years ago. They also said that they believe that we are getting ready to come out of the clam climate stage, where the climate will change alot from year to year.

What you saw on TV does not contradict global warming, even if Rush Limbaugh says it does.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #3069 on: November 25, 2009, 02:54:16 pm »

I'm not a climate change denier, I don't believe in Global Warming. Our Climate is very unstable and has been from the start. I watched a TV show they other day on the Science channel talking about how in the Earth's history the climate went in cycle of unstable climate changes, up until about 10 thousands years ago. They also said that they believe that we are getting ready to come out of the clam climate stage, where the climate will change alot from year to year.

What you saw on TV does not contradict global warming, even if Rush Limbaugh says it does.

I don't listen to Rush Limbaugh, I hate him, alot. Smiley

I'm not saying there isn't global warming, but I don't believe it is mostly caused by humans, some of it is, but not all of it. But of course I could be wrong, but I really don't care that much.. Smiley
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #3070 on: November 25, 2009, 03:23:54 pm »

Clearly, a super-human standard is being expected of a Democrat but no meaningful standard for a Republican whatsoever when comparing Obama and Bush, at this stage, in their presidencies; at least, as far as the economy and jobs are concerned
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« Reply #3071 on: November 25, 2009, 07:45:18 pm »

USA Today/Gallup 11/22

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-11-24-Poll_N.htm

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 46%
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« Reply #3072 on: November 25, 2009, 09:21:05 pm »




I updated it with the SUSA numbers... Smiley



I checked the crosstabs for one state (Virginia) and found them far out of line. For example, the generation with the lowest approval for Obama was  the youngest generation of voters. It is hard to figure why the youngest voters, the most liberal generation in American history, would turn so sharply against Obama.  The same also appears in Missouri, a state culturally similar to Virginia. Paradoxically this is opposite the effect in Kentucky, but it also appears in Kansas. (The likelihood of Obama winning either Kansas or Kentucky in 2012 with any recent scenarios is practically nil).

In Washington State, the age connection is completely inverse to expectations -- support for Obama increases with age. In California and Oregon, they are practically even. Is California politically that much different from Washington State as it is similar in age-voting patterns as Oregon?

Anyone who expects Obama support in Alabama above 40% (it is 38%, according to SUSA) is a fool. But should Obama's support in Missouri, Virginia, or Kentucky be as low as it is in Alabama?

Also with respect to Virginia, the African-American support is way down from what one could reasonably expect. Obama gets support in the supposed low 60s in Virginia but the high 70s in Alabama, suggesting that African-American voting in Virginia is vastly different from that in Alabama. 

Such a precipitous fall in support is highly unlikely for any President except in the wake of a gigantic scandal. All other bad news (economic failure, military reverses) take time to develop. One would have to have the sudden eruption of something so troublesome as the exposure of bribe-taking by (then) VP Spiro T. Agnew or the dereliction of duty of (current Governor of South Carolina) Mark Sanford.  Support for neither Richard Nixon nor George W. Bush ever fell so fast as the SUSA polls here suggest.

Except  for the result for Alabama I consider every one of the SUSA polls to be spurious. They are inconsistent with the results of recent tracking polls -- even those least favorable to Barack Obama.  They show major inconsistencies of patterns of support between polls. To be sure, I can't quite throw them out without some obvious cause, but I can denote them with the letter S as in spurious. I shall consider those in Alabama and Kansas genuine.

If I see any reasonable poll that contradicts them, then I shall immediately replace the "S"  poll with a new one with no effort to average it with the questionable SUSA poll. 



Republicans might take heart in the poor showings for Obama in some of the SUSA polls -- but the public opinion of their Party isn't great, either. Could it be that these poor showings, if valid, suggest that President Obama is vulnerable to a challenge from political figures further Left than he? The GOP so far has no means of exploiting any such sentiment.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3073 on: November 25, 2009, 09:27:18 pm »

LOL. It's kinda funny which polls he questions, and which ones he doesn't. I've never seen someone that can write so much, but ultimately say so little in their posts.
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« Reply #3074 on: November 25, 2009, 09:46:26 pm »

I doubt his approval rating is that high in North Carolina now.
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