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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022518 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #3250 on: December 18, 2009, 07:52:31 pm »

I think Obama will lose Michigan in 2012. 

If he loses Michigan, then it's a pretty easy win for the Republican whoever it is.

If I recall, Obama was behind McCain in Michigan into about July of 2008. Should Obama lose Michigan he would have to pick up states in which he did badly in 2008.

Michigan's economy has been a wreck for almost 40 years now. It has toyed with the Right only to find non-solutions. Governors over the last forty years have thought that they could turn the state around, and they seem invariably to fail whether R or D. Michigan has long depended upon "heavy consumer goods" like automobiles and appliances that used to be the cutting edge of technology and very profitable. Now they are not so profitable. What new technology can one put into a washing machine?
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President Mitt
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« Reply #3251 on: December 18, 2009, 08:01:51 pm »

Did anyone notice the crosstabs in that PPP poll on North Carolina? 
47% D, 34% R is questionable, but the poll favors the president, so let it be. 

You learn quickly that you should ignore Pbrower's posts.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #3252 on: December 18, 2009, 08:31:35 pm »

I think Obama will lose Michigan in 2012. 

If he loses Michigan, then it's a pretty easy win for the Republican whoever it is.

If I recall, Obama was behind McCain in Michigan into about July of 2008. Should Obama lose Michigan he would have to pick up states in which he did badly in 2008.

Michigan's economy has been a wreck for almost 40 years now. It has toyed with the Right only to find non-solutions. Governors over the last forty years have thought that they could turn the state around, and they seem invariably to fail whether R or D. Michigan has long depended upon "heavy consumer goods" like automobiles and appliances that used to be the cutting edge of technology and very profitable. Now they are not so profitable. What new technology can one put into a washing machine?

Yes, but Mccain was at around 40-43%. He never even reached Bush's 2000 result. I can't help but think that a lot of that vote was going to break for Obama regardless.
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Badger
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« Reply #3253 on: December 18, 2009, 08:40:26 pm »

Did anyone notice the crosstabs in that PPP poll on North Carolina? 
47% D, 34% R is questionable, but the poll favors the president, so let it be. 

You learn quickly that you should ignore Pbrower's posts neverending critics who constantly bitch but rarely offer maps of their own.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #3254 on: December 18, 2009, 08:43:15 pm »

NC has plenty of conservative Democrats, numbers seem a bit too D heavy but not as much as is being said.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #3255 on: December 18, 2009, 08:45:31 pm »

Michigan was considered a toss up state on election day in 2000, but Gore won by a bigger margin than expected. On election day in 2004, it was considered to be fairly safely Kerry, but he won it by a narrower margin than expected.

I know this is a bit off-topic, but since we are talking about Michigan....

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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #3256 on: December 18, 2009, 08:48:55 pm »

CNN exit poll in 2008 for NC was 42D-31R.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3257 on: December 18, 2009, 08:53:19 pm »

Also it's a Registered Voters poll, not a likely voters poll. Democrats have a huge registration advantage in NC, about 15 points if I'm not mistaken.
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War on Want
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« Reply #3258 on: December 18, 2009, 09:09:29 pm »

NC has plenty of conservative Democrats, numbers seem a bit too D heavy but not as much as is being said.
Yeah I was about to say this. Registration rates for southern Democrats are still very high, even in places where you wouldn't expect them to be.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3259 on: December 18, 2009, 10:16:08 pm »

Also it's a Registered Voters poll, not a likely voters poll. Democrats have a huge registration advantage in NC, about 15 points if I'm not mistaken.

It's easy to figure that North Carolina is a very right-wing state because of its long-time troglodyte Senator Jesse Helms. It has been seven years since the late Senator Helms was Senator and he has since had two successors in the Senate.

The registration edge suggests that Independents in North Carolina have voted heavily R in recent years -- even in 2008, and will do so in 2010 and 2012. Contrast the situation in South Dakota; practically every Independent would have to vote for a Democratic candidate for any Democrat to win in the state.   
 
Although that might not apply to North Carolina, conservative Democrats used to support Carter in 1980 and  Clinton in 1992 and 1996. (North Carolina has lots of relocated former residents of the Rust Belt). Of course should the typical white voters for Bill Clinton break for Obama in 2012, only political junkies will be watching to see whether Obama wins California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington.     
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3260 on: December 18, 2009, 11:14:04 pm »

Michigan could prove to be very interesting in 2012. Honestly, if Republicans really want to win you, it might just be better for the Democrats to keep the Governor's mansion, so the Republican nominee can fully blame Democrats for Michigan's problems. It will still be successful even with a Republican as Governor, just not as much.
I'll go ahead and move Michigan from "Slight Obama" to "Toss-up".
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3261 on: December 18, 2009, 11:24:14 pm »

Also it's a Registered Voters poll, not a likely voters poll. Democrats have a huge registration advantage in NC, about 15 points if I'm not mistaken.

It's easy to figure that North Carolina is a very right-wing state because of its long-time troglodyte Senator Jesse Helms. The 2008 elections belie such an outdated image. Helms has been off the scene for seven years.

The registration edge suggests that Independents in North Carolina have voted heavily R in recent years -- even in 2008, and will do so in 2010 and 2012. Contrast the situation in South Dakota; practically every Independent would have to vote for a Democratic candidate for any Democrat to win in the state.   
 
Although that might not apply to North Carolina, conservative Democrats used to support Carter in 1980 and  Clinton in 1992 and 1996. (North Carolina has lots of relocated former residents of the Rust Belt). Of course should the typical white voters for Bill Clinton break for Obama in 2012, only political junkies will be watching to see whether Obama wins California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington.     
Out of curiousity...
What ran through your mind a few moments ago that prompted you to quote a message you posted an hour ago, in this very thread, and repost it?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3262 on: December 18, 2009, 11:45:17 pm »


Out of curiousity...
What ran through your mind a few moments ago that prompted you to quote a message you posted an hour ago, in this very thread, and repost it?

Accidents happen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3263 on: December 19, 2009, 12:59:48 am »

SurveyUSA has their December numbers out (600 adults in each state, Dec. 11-13):

Alabama: 35% Approve, 61% Disapprove (-3, +2)
California: 55% Approve, 41% Disapprove (+2, +3)
Kansas: 36% Approve, 59% Disapprove (-2, +1)
Kentucky: 38% Approve, 58% Disapprove (nc, nc)
Missouri: 45% Approve, 52% Disapprove (+7, -6)
New York: 56% Approve, 40% Disapprove (+3, +1)
Oregon: 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (+3, nc)
Virginia: 44% Approve, 54% Disapprove (+7, -6)
Washington: 50% Approve, 46% Disapprove (+2, -2)

Plus a Zogby poll from Florida:

55% Approve
42% Disapprove

Zogby International was commissioned by SafieReview.com and the Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) to conduct a telephone survey of likely voters in Florida. This telephone survey of 801 likely voters was conducted December 7-11, 2009. Samples were randomly drawn from telephone CDs of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. Weighting by region, party, age, race and gender is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1785
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3264 on: December 19, 2009, 01:10:38 am »

Rhode Island (Brown University)Sad

54% Excellent/Good
44% Fair/Poor

The survey, conducted Dec. 4-6, 2009, is based on a sample of 442 registered voters in Rhode Island.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2009/12/survey
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Rob
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« Reply #3265 on: December 19, 2009, 01:27:43 am »


Just look at his approval ratings there.  Its not like the economy in Michigan is suddenly going to be good again in 2012.  

Granholm's approval rating on October 16, 2006, was 39 percent. She won 56 percent of the vote two weeks later.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3266 on: December 19, 2009, 05:18:06 am »

SurveyUSA has their December numbers out (600 adults in each state, Dec. 11-13):

Alabama: 35% Approve, 61% Disapprove (-3, +2)
California: 55% Approve, 41% Disapprove (+2, +3)
Kansas: 36% Approve, 59% Disapprove (-2, +1)
Kentucky: 38% Approve, 58% Disapprove (nc, nc)
Missouri: 45% Approve, 52% Disapprove (+7, -6)
New York: 56% Approve, 40% Disapprove (+3, +1)
Oregon: 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (+3, nc)
Virginia: 44% Approve, 54% Disapprove (+7, -6)
Washington: 50% Approve, 46% Disapprove (+2, -2)

Plus a Zogby poll from Florida:

55% Approve
42% Disapprove



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1785


Rhode Island (Brown University)Sad

54% Excellent/Good
44% Fair/Poor

The survey, conducted Dec. 4-6, 2009, is based on a sample of 442 registered voters in Rhode Island.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2009/12/survey




SUSA's  polls for December have lost some of the off-the-wall quality that I thought I saw in November.  Bad batches can happen. The letter "S" completely disappears.   
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Umengus
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« Reply #3267 on: December 19, 2009, 06:49:08 am »

SurveyUSA has their December numbers out (600 adults in each state, Dec. 11-13):

Alabama: 35% Approve, 61% Disapprove (-3, +2)
California: 55% Approve, 41% Disapprove (+2, +3)
Kansas: 36% Approve, 59% Disapprove (-2, +1)
Kentucky: 38% Approve, 58% Disapprove (nc, nc)
Missouri: 45% Approve, 52% Disapprove (+7, -6)
New York: 56% Approve, 40% Disapprove (+3, +1)
Oregon: 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (+3, nc)
Virginia: 44% Approve, 54% Disapprove (+7, -6)
Washington: 50% Approve, 46% Disapprove (+2, -2)

Plus a Zogby poll from Florida:

55% Approve
42% Disapprove



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1785


Rhode Island (Brown University)Sad

54% Excellent/Good
44% Fair/Poor

The survey, conducted Dec. 4-6, 2009, is based on a sample of 442 registered voters in Rhode Island.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2009/12/survey


[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;L;6&AK=0;Z;6&AZ=4;K;5&AR=4;L;7&CA=3;L;5&CO=3;L;5&CT=3;K;6&DE=3;L;5&DC=0;Z;8&FL=3;L;5&GA=4;I;6&HI=3;*;7&ID=4;Z;6&IL=3;L;6&IN=4;K;5&IA=3;K;4&KS=4;K;6&KY=4;L;6&LA=4;L;5&MD=3;K;6&MA=3;K;6&MI=4;L;5&MN=3;K;5&MS=0;Z;5&MO=4;L;5&MT=4;K;5&NV=4;L;5&NH=3;J;5&NJ=3;J;5&NM=3;J;5&NY=3;L;6&NC=3;L;4&ND=0;Z;6&OH=4;L;5&OK=4;Z;6&OR=3;L;5&PA=3;L;4&RI=3;L;5&SC=4;L;5&SD=4;L;5&TN=4;J;4&TX=4;I;6&

In susa mass polls, there are always one or 2 outliers. Everybody knows that approval of Obama was not in 30s. The real numbers are in.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #3268 on: December 20, 2009, 11:57:54 am »

Hey pbrower, I think that Zogby Florida poll should qualify as "suspect". If his approval is positive in Florida, it will be slightly positive, not by a 55\42 margin.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3269 on: December 20, 2009, 12:25:58 pm »

Hey pbrower, I think that Zogby Florida poll should qualify as "suspect". If his approval is positive in Florida, it will be slightly positive, not by a 55\42 margin.

^^^ I agree with this.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3270 on: December 20, 2009, 12:28:25 pm »

Hey pbrower, I think that Zogby Florida poll should qualify as "suspect". If his approval is positive in Florida, it will be slightly positive, not by a 55\42 margin.

You may be right. I don't ordinarily judge polls unless they are seemingly out of line (like one with a rating of 68% for Obama in Texas this summer, or those with low-thirties ratings for Obama in Kentucky, Missouri, and Virginia last month, or those that have weird or contradictory crosstabs. Heck, I have even seen transpositions.

It looks like a small-scale outlier, but I suspect that 51% wouldn't cause too many people to complain about it as an outlier. It's the same shade as I would give for 51%, so the map is OK. There will be more polls that will corroborate or discredit that poll.  It's not as bad as most of the November polls from SUSA that even a later SUSA set rendered irrelevant.

I have seen comparatively few statewide polls from Zogby.
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« Reply #3271 on: December 21, 2009, 01:33:11 pm »

The registration edge suggests that Independents in North Carolina have voted heavily R in recent years -- even in 2008, and will do so in 2010 and 2012. Contrast the situation in South Dakota; practically every Independent would have to vote for a Democratic candidate for any Democrat to win in the state.   

That's not the case. It's a simple matter of Democrats voting Republican in large numbers.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3272 on: December 21, 2009, 02:28:37 pm »

North Dakota(Rasmussen)

Approve 41%
Disapprove 58%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_senate_december_17_2009
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« Reply #3273 on: December 21, 2009, 02:35:54 pm »

That can't be right, Rowan. I was told Obama will win fi-con states like ND and Texas.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3274 on: December 21, 2009, 03:05:56 pm »

That can't be right, Rowan. I was told Obama will win fi-con states like ND and Texas.

The poll clearly doesn't include the Age Wave.
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