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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016030 times)
ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3375 on: December 27, 2009, 12:51:18 pm »


His maps are not fundamentally different to Rowan's.

I just like the Yellow-Green distinction better but prefer Rowan's numbering for the dates of the polls instead of the letters.

Let them create their own maps and everybody is happy.

I think they mean that he mixes favorability polls

Really? Favorability polls are always higher for President Obama, because he is a likable guy, whether you agree or disagree with his policies (personally, I disagree).  If that's the case, then I'd be against using pbrower's map, because those numbers are always 5-6 points higher minimum.
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Badger
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« Reply #3376 on: December 28, 2009, 10:19:57 am »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!
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J. J.
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« Reply #3377 on: December 28, 2009, 05:19:29 pm »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

Smiley
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Magic 8-Ball
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« Reply #3378 on: December 28, 2009, 06:06:27 pm »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

The Free Market at its finest.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3379 on: December 28, 2009, 10:50:58 pm »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

The Free Market at its finest.

What "Free Market"?
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #3380 on: December 29, 2009, 12:03:49 am »

Free market to do anything!
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Rowan
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« Reply #3381 on: December 29, 2009, 10:43:44 am »

Nebraska(Rasmussen)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/nebraska/toplines/toplines_2012_nebraska_senate_election_december_28_2009



We finally get a Nebraska poll and it's no surprise.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3382 on: December 29, 2009, 11:39:00 am »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

The Free Market at its finest.

What has it got to do with the "market" anyway?
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Rob
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« Reply #3383 on: December 29, 2009, 12:30:27 pm »

What has it got to do with the "market" anyway?

The marketplace of ideas, son.
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Magic 8-Ball
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« Reply #3384 on: December 29, 2009, 03:24:22 pm »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

The Free Market at its finest.

What has it got to do with the "market" anyway?

Oh my, it seems as though you couldn't read the post I quoted.  You might need to get your monitor checked out.

Rob gives a nice, terse explanation that you should find satisfactory.  I mean, it's not as though your recent conversion was half-hearted or anything, right?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3385 on: December 29, 2009, 03:27:53 pm »
« Edited: December 30, 2009, 01:34:56 am by pbrower2a »

This is a map of December polls only.  I am starting with December because the December map contains at four states (Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah) that rarely get polled.



Colorado and Florida are averages. Louisiana is excellent-good-fair-poor.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval). Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximun 180 days) before December 1, 2009.

No push polls or polls from a political party or special interest (ethnic advocacy, union, business advocacy [Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, etc.; business journals are OK] gun-rights, pro-life or pro-choice, gay rights, religious group [Christian Science Monitor OK if it should appear with a poll], advocates of specific legislation) should be accepted). College polls are OK.

Colors from over 180 days may be maintained only if the poll is reasonable (corroboration in other states with similar political histories or the previous election) without ambiguity. Ambiguity causes it to go gray.

I am showing the three different districts in Nebraska; in 2008, NE-01 voted much like Texas; NE-02 voted much like Indiana; NE-03 voted much like Wyoming.  Those in Maine aren't much different and won't differ in any race except one in which Maine is really close -- and such would be a race that Barack Obama can only lose.

  
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3386 on: December 29, 2009, 03:50:16 pm »
« Edited: December 29, 2009, 03:52:16 pm by Paulisdabest »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

The Free Market at its finest.

What has it got to do with the "market" anyway?

Oh my, it seems as though you couldn't read the post I quoted.  You might need to get your monitor checked out.

Rob gives a nice, terse explanation that you should find satisfactory.  I mean, it's not as though your recent conversion was half-hearted or anything, right?

I'm an atheist. I have no heart.
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GLPman
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« Reply #3387 on: December 29, 2009, 05:10:33 pm »

This is a partial map of December polls only. Please not that I am far from complete, as I am "graying-out" anything before December. I am starting with December because the December map contains at four states (Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah) that rarely get polled.



Colorado and Florida are averages. Louisiana is excellent-good-fair-poor.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval). Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximun 180 days) before December 1, 2009.

No push polls or polls from a political party or special interest (ethnic advocacy, union, business advocacy [Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, etc.; business journals are OK] gun-rights, pro-life or pro-choice, gay rights, religious group [Christian Science Monitor OK if it should appear with a poll], advocates of specific legislation) should be accepted). College polls are OK.

Colors from over 180 days may be maintained only if the poll is reasonable (corroboration in other states with similar political histories or the previous election) without ambiguity. Ambiguity causes it to go gray.

I am showing the three different districts in Nebraska; in 2008, NE-01 voted much like Texas; NE-02 voted much like Indiana; NE-03 voted much like Wyoming.  Those in Maine aren't much different and won't differ in any race except one in which Maine is really close -- and such would be a race that Barack Obama can only lose.

  


This seems unnecessary.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3388 on: December 29, 2009, 05:28:59 pm »


Maryland that bad too?
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Rowan
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« Reply #3389 on: December 29, 2009, 05:31:28 pm »


Huh? Maryland is dark green.
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War on Want
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« Reply #3390 on: December 29, 2009, 05:37:23 pm »

A 38/61 Approval rating is actually good for Obama in Nebraska at this point.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3391 on: December 29, 2009, 05:48:55 pm »

A 38/61 Approval rating is actually good for Obama in Nebraska at this point.

How so? He won 42% there in 2008.
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War on Want
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« Reply #3392 on: December 29, 2009, 05:59:14 pm »

A 38/61 Approval rating is actually good for Obama in Nebraska at this point.

How so? He won 42% there in 2008.
He won by 53% nationwide. This means that Nebraska is R+11. Nebraska is only R+8(in theory) according to this approval rating because Obama is getting 46% nationwide currently according to Rassmussen.

Point is Obama still has a good chance of winning that Nebraska CD in 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3393 on: December 29, 2009, 06:12:38 pm »


Fresh start for a new year. This is a good time to start, as it looks like a point before President Obama won his pet legislation. I arbitrarily chose to start with December for four reasons -- four states that rarely get polled, even if those four are unlikely to be Obama wins. Without those four states (Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah) we might have a huge chink of "gray" space for a very long time.

We may see whether the legislative success helps Obama even if it is an end to some political tension that could  have felt very bad. We may see change related to economic improvement or decline. 

It's all up to interpretation.     
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3394 on: December 29, 2009, 06:45:18 pm »

Why is pbrower still posting maps?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3395 on: December 29, 2009, 06:51:11 pm »


Because we can't control what he does.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3396 on: December 29, 2009, 06:52:48 pm »


Because I want to, and I can.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3397 on: December 29, 2009, 07:32:33 pm »
« Edited: December 29, 2009, 07:36:50 pm by Joe Republic »


Fair enough.  In which case, I guess the button is the best way forward.  Sorry, but you brought it upon yourself.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3398 on: December 29, 2009, 07:36:41 pm »

A 38/61 Approval rating is actually good for Obama in Nebraska at this point.

How so? He won 42% there in 2008.
He won by 53% nationwide. This means that Nebraska is R+11. Nebraska is only R+8(in theory) according to this approval rating because Obama is getting 46% nationwide currently according to Rassmussen.

Point is Obama still has a good chance of winning that Nebraska CD in 2012.

Good point. But sometimes Rasmussen's approvals are just a little out there, for example his 45% in South Carolina when he was 47% nationally.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3399 on: December 30, 2009, 01:37:27 am »

A 38/61 Approval rating is actually good for Obama in Nebraska at this point.

How so? He won 42% there in 2008.
He won by 53% nationwide. This means that Nebraska is R+11. Nebraska is only R+8(in theory) according to this approval rating because Obama is getting 46% nationwide currently according to Rassmussen.

Point is Obama still has a good chance of winning that Nebraska CD in 2012.

Good point. But sometimes Rasmussen's approvals are just a little out there, for example his 45% in South Carolina when he was 47% nationally.

Funny that you are denying Obama's numbers even if they are low ...

From PPP on South Carolina (Dec. 3-6):

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%
Not Sure.......................................................... 5%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_1208.pdf
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