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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015296 times)
Magic 8-Ball
mrk
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« Reply #3400 on: December 30, 2009, 04:17:53 am »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

The Free Market at its finest.

What has it got to do with the "market" anyway?

Oh my, it seems as though you couldn't read the post I quoted.  You might need to get your monitor checked out.

Rob gives a nice, terse explanation that you should find satisfactory.  I mean, it's not as though your recent conversion was half-hearted or anything, right?

I'm an atheist. I have no heart.

Religion isn't what you claimed to have converted to.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3401 on: December 30, 2009, 04:47:32 am »

Yeah, the approval rating in the states sometimes don't matchup with his approval rating overall.

For example, Rasmussen found him at 48/50 in Michigan, a state where Obama won 57% of the vote (that's better than the December MPIC-ERA poll that showed Obama at 44/55 approval/disapproval in Michigan and 49/45 favorable/unfavorable).

Obama may have "gained" in the deep red states because he performed so poorly relative to his performance nationally but any gain that he makes in these states is irrelevant just as any loss in the deep blue states is irrelevant because he'll just win the deep blue states and lose the deep red states regardless of any modest gain.

Where I think he's really struggling is in the swing states (though Rasmussen does show Obama faring better in Virginia than either PPP or SurveyUSA).
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3402 on: December 30, 2009, 04:49:10 am »

The best way to explain the South Carolina polling from Ras and PPP is to look at when they were conducted.  They were conducted right after his afgahnistan speech, which might have boosted his numbers among Republicans/conservatives temporarily before reality set in and we started hating him again.

The PPP showed him receiving 17% approval from Republicans nationally, which is a lot higher than where he is with Republicans in PPP's national polling and in PPP's polling of other non-Northeastern states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3403 on: December 30, 2009, 11:23:29 am »

The best way to explain the South Carolina polling from Ras and PPP is to look at when they were conducted.  They were conducted right after his afgahnistan speech, which might have boosted his numbers among Republicans/conservatives temporarily before reality set in and we started hating him again.


"Started hating him again"? That reeks of projection.

There are two other possible explanations. One is that the Governor had gone to Argentina for some tango lessons, and that any scandal hurts a political party. Another is that although  President Obama's low polls correspond with the drawn-out debate on health care, South Carolina's two Senators are well-defined right-wing Republicans, as are most of its Representatives. But South Carolina is also one of the poorer states in America, and it does very badly in measures of public health. Paradoxically, reform of health care would help the poor in a state like South Carolina much more than it offends right-wing sensibilities.

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The Atlantic South is much less conservative than the non-Atlantic South.  Maybe that's because it is more urban; counties that include Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, Birmingham, Jackson (Mississippi) and New Orleans voted heavily for Obama. Georgia was one of Obama's closer losses, and it has the giant Atlanta metro area. North Carolina was a bare win, and it has the giant Charlotte metro area and the I-40 urban corridor. Obama has the pulse of urban and suburban America (Suburbia has genuine urban problems now, and the GOP has nothing to offer suburbanites but "tax cuts" which may be the least of one's concerns when one is in a traffic jam or if one thinks one's kids' education needs a boost if the kids are to grow up middle-class).  South Carolina has no giant metro areas like Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, or Miami, but it does have several middling cities.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3404 on: December 30, 2009, 03:12:42 pm »


On my monitor, it looks like Utah!
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3405 on: December 30, 2009, 03:26:32 pm »
« Edited: December 30, 2009, 03:32:43 pm by Paulisdabest »

Its nice to see after a solid year of bitchin and moanin about Pbrowers maps that someone finally actually stepped up and did one of their own instead of continuing to just complain.

Now the farce has been exposed. With Pbrower's rampant bias removed and replaced with other posters biases we see the map has radically flipped....Colorado which Pbrower himself switched after a delay of nearly <gasp) 48 hours.

Great job!

The Free Market at its finest.

What has it got to do with the "market" anyway?

Oh my, it seems as though you couldn't read the post I quoted.  You might need to get your monitor checked out.

Rob gives a nice, terse explanation that you should find satisfactory.  I mean, it's not as though your recent conversion was half-hearted or anything, right?

I'm an atheist. I have no heart.

Religion isn't what you claimed to have converted to.

Political ideologies are religions, more or less.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3406 on: December 31, 2009, 12:12:47 pm »
« Edited: December 31, 2009, 12:18:13 pm by RowanBrandon »

New Hampshire(ARG)

Approve 39%
Disapprove 47%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp04.html


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3407 on: December 31, 2009, 12:15:29 pm »

ARG is currently down:

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access / on this server.

Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.
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Beet
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« Reply #3408 on: December 31, 2009, 12:25:55 pm »
« Edited: December 31, 2009, 12:27:42 pm by Beet »

Are we preferring voters over the total sample? Total sample was approve 40, disapprove 44, likely voters was 39-47.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3409 on: December 31, 2009, 12:26:53 pm »

Are we preferring likely voters over the total sample? Total sample was approve 40, disapprove 44, likely voters was 39-47. It's hard to tell how meaningful 'likely voters' is 10 months out, IMO.

It's registered voters. The total sample was 600 adults, broken down to 566 registered voters.
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Beet
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« Reply #3410 on: December 31, 2009, 12:28:18 pm »

Are we preferring likely voters over the total sample? Total sample was approve 40, disapprove 44, likely voters was 39-47. It's hard to tell how meaningful 'likely voters' is 10 months out, IMO.

It's registered voters. The total sample was 600 adults, broken down to 566 registered voters.

Yes, I just corrected my post.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3411 on: December 31, 2009, 12:35:09 pm »

It seems that only Americans can access ARG atm.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3412 on: December 31, 2009, 01:58:18 pm »

It seems that only Americans can access ARG atm.

I confirm

ARG doesn't like foreigners... racist !
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3413 on: December 31, 2009, 02:02:45 pm »

I'm pretty shocked he's netting a negative in New Hampshire, but I'll take it
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change08
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« Reply #3414 on: December 31, 2009, 02:24:09 pm »

I'm pretty shocked he's netting a negative in New Hampshire, but I'll take it

Call me a hack, but I think that's probably an outlier. I'd prefer to see some more companies poll NH. :/
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3415 on: December 31, 2009, 02:41:40 pm »
« Edited: December 31, 2009, 03:09:25 pm by pbrower2a »

Probable outlier in New Hampshire.



I'm still showing it, but with "S" as in "suspect". It almost looks like an inversion.
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #3416 on: December 31, 2009, 03:00:23 pm »

ARG = joke. Everyone seems to have forgot their wretched track record.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3417 on: December 31, 2009, 03:06:25 pm »

ARG = joke. Everyone seems to have forgot their wretched track record.

Actually they weren't that bad in 2008. Better than the RAS even:

Image Link
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Alcon
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« Reply #3418 on: December 31, 2009, 03:13:05 pm »

ARG = joke. Everyone seems to have forgot their wretched track record.

Actually they weren't that bad in 2008. Better than the RAS even:

Image Link

That's because in the last month or two they suddenly started putting out super-average results (like, always the middle of the release pack) and, surprise surprise, that's where they ended.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3419 on: December 31, 2009, 04:45:55 pm »

ARG = joke. Everyone seems to have forgot their wretched track record.

Actually they weren't that bad in 2008. Better than the RAS even:

Image Link

That's because in the last month or two they suddenly started putting out super-average results (like, always the middle of the release pack) and, surprise surprise, that's where they ended.

Correct. They are a shady crew.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3420 on: December 31, 2009, 06:05:58 pm »

New Hampshire will have a US Senate seat under contest in November, so there will be more polls in 2010. Count on it.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3421 on: December 31, 2009, 07:30:42 pm »

Ahhh good point pbrower, the Hodes vs. Ayotte will probably go down to the wire, and just depend on whether things are going well for team red or team blue.

That's another benefit of midterm elections, we'll get polls in other battlegrounds with senate elections such as Missouri, Ohio, Florida, and others.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3422 on: January 01, 2010, 01:52:45 am »

ARG = joke. Everyone seems to have forgot their wretched track record.

Actually they weren't that bad in 2008. Better than the RAS even:

Image Link

That's because in the last month or two they suddenly started putting out super-average results (like, always the middle of the release pack) and, surprise surprise, that's where they ended.

Yes -- and anyone could do that with the aid of a simple calculator. Find the mean between several polls and you won't do badly. One won't achieve much, though.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3423 on: January 01, 2010, 08:48:38 am »

Out of all the New England states, NH is the most likely to disapprove.

With Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa being where they are, it it really shocking that NH might not like him.

You cannot call it an outlier, until more evidence arrives, meaning at least two more legit pollsters.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3424 on: January 01, 2010, 09:46:11 am »

Out of all the New England states, NH is the most likely to disapprove.

With Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa being where they are, it it really shocking that NH might not like him.

You cannot call it an outlier, until more evidence arrives, meaning at least two more legit pollsters.

No way does New Hampshire vote like Kansas.

One Rasmussen poll would be enough. The language of the NH poll was so shabby that the result was nearly void of meaning. "Voters"? Which voters? Do they mean "likely voters"? "Voters in judicial races"? "Voters in schoolboard races"?

Outliers happen, and most of them are honest mistakes. I'm treating the NH poll as suspect -- not as an automatic reject.
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