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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1009700 times)
Franzl
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« Reply #3425 on: January 01, 2010, 10:05:39 am »

Outliers happen, and most of them are honest mistakes. I'm treating the NH poll as suspect -- not as an automatic reject.

Honest mistakes? Outliers needn't be mistakes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3426 on: January 01, 2010, 12:26:36 pm »

Outliers happen, and most of them are honest mistakes. I'm treating the NH poll as suspect -- not as an automatic reject.

Honest mistakes? Outliers needn't be mistakes.

ARG has offered few state polls, and that one stinks. One will be enough to refute it. I would never have disputed a  48/52.

Let us remember that some of the voters in the 2012 election are now only 15 years old. ARG's language in offering its poll is, one must recognize, shabby.
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Badger
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« Reply #3427 on: January 01, 2010, 12:28:30 pm »

ARG = trash. I would be as quick to dismiss this poll as one showing him breaking even in Tennessee.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3428 on: January 01, 2010, 02:04:44 pm »

One poll cannot dispute it. How do you know that other poll wouldn't be an outlier?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3429 on: January 01, 2010, 03:31:28 pm »
« Edited: January 01, 2010, 03:34:43 pm by pbrower2a »

One poll cannot dispute it. How do you know that other poll wouldn't be an outlier?

Do you expect that poll to refute a string of polls in New Hampshire which have had him near or above 50% approval? That's why I consider it an outlier.  

Look at the difference between SurveyUSA polls between November and December. The November polls had Washington and Oregon tied [Huh], Missouri and Virginia as R-leaning as Alabama [Huh]; December polls approached more normal results.

New Hampshire may be the most conservative-leaning state in New England, but it isn't Arkansas, and it isn't even North Dakota. It's more like Pennsylvania.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3430 on: January 01, 2010, 03:41:21 pm »
« Edited: January 01, 2010, 03:45:37 pm by pbrower2a »

This is a map of December polls only.  I am starting with December because the December map contains at four states (Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah) that rarely get polled.



Colorado and Florida are averages. Louisiana is excellent-good-fair-poor.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval). Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009.

No push polls or polls from a political party or special interest (ethnic advocacy, union, business advocacy [Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, etc.; business journals are OK] gun-rights, pro-life or pro-choice, gay rights, religious group [Christian Science Monitor OK if it should appear with a poll], advocates of specific legislation) should be accepted). College polls are OK.



I'm going to add back Maryland and Montana polls from November. They are the only exceptions; the two states rarely get polled, and other November polls are likely to get replaced anyway (example: Iowa).
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Franzl
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« Reply #3431 on: January 01, 2010, 03:46:25 pm »


New Hampshire is similar to Pennsylvania???
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Zarn
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« Reply #3432 on: January 01, 2010, 04:03:53 pm »


No, but it doesn't matter to him.

When was the last NH poll?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3433 on: January 01, 2010, 04:57:34 pm »


Certainly it's more like Pennsylvania in its voting than like Kansas. Since 1992 it has voted only once for the Republican nominee for President. (Maybe had Joe Lieberman campaigned in New Hampshire instead of Florida we would have never had you-know-who as President)!

The ARG poll in New Hampshire looks absurd. I have an "S" over New Hampshire... and you are welcome to interpret the "S" as standing for any of the following words:

suspect
suspicious
spurious
silly

I usually average polls within the same month -- but I promptly replace anything with an "S" on it. I look forward to putting a green shade on New Hampshire shortly.


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GOP732
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« Reply #3434 on: January 02, 2010, 01:34:19 pm »

I look forward to putting a green shade on New Hampshire shortly.

Good God pbrower...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3435 on: January 02, 2010, 02:31:48 pm »

I look forward to putting a green shade on New Hampshire shortly.

Good God pbrower...

That is a simple prediction. I have set myself up to be proved or disproved.

What is so terrible about the prospect that President Obama could have met his low point in popularity during the debate on health care? The legislative process was a mess, and it didn't look good for republicans any more than it did for Democrats. The Democrats have a victory, one entirely their own. Success looks better than failure.

This is an election year, and there will be plenty of polls on states that have gubernatorial races and Senate races.  New Hampshire has a senate race.

Add to that, we seem now to be edging our way out of the consequences of the worst financial panic since the Great Depression. We now seem to be in a genuine mode of economic growth -- yes, a recovery is economic growth.

 
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CJK
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« Reply #3436 on: January 02, 2010, 03:25:06 pm »

Obama's December Approval rating (Gallup):

50% approve

43% disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter 57/27 (December 1977)

Reagan 49/41 (December 1981)

Bush I 71/20 (December 1989)

Clinton 53/39 (December 1993)

Bush II 86/11 (December 2001)
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Magic 8-Ball
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« Reply #3437 on: January 02, 2010, 05:22:57 pm »


Certainly it's more like Pennsylvania in its voting than like Kansas. Since 1992 it has voted only once for the Republican nominee for President. (Maybe had Joe Lieberman campaigned in New Hampshire instead of Florida we would have never had you-know-who as President)!

If you simply must compare New Hampshire to another state, Colorado is probably your best bet.


Pennsylvania...
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3438 on: January 02, 2010, 08:00:20 pm »

New polls today:



Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.



Expect to see more yellow on that map within 6 to 12 months.

Sure....
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Badger
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« Reply #3439 on: January 02, 2010, 10:01:03 pm »


No, but it doesn't matter to him.

When was the last NH poll?

In one sense: Their 2008 results were nearly identical.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

And considering NH may be the only state outside AZ to have a decided pro-McCain (vs. pro-GOP) bias, Pbrower might actually have a point here.

Nah, what am I saying? Everybody knows he's just a hack.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3440 on: January 03, 2010, 12:53:15 am »

Obama's December Approval rating (Gallup):

50% approve

43% disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter 57/27 (December 1977)

Reagan 49/41 (December 1981)

Bush I 71/20 (December 1989)

Clinton 53/39 (December 1993)

Bush II 86/11 (December 2001)


With that sort of approval rating  (50/43) nationwide, I would expect to see much more green on my most recent map -- if Gallup is right.  Obviously I wouldn't expect so much with the July map that now looks ridiculous (that likely showed a 65% approval rating, and Obama had made no huge, controversial decisions yet). That map seemed to reflect reality in July -- a reality that few thought sustainable. 

It's low by the standards of other Presidents beginning with Jimmy Carter... but the ones with low ratings eleven months after inauguration (Reagan and Clinton) won re-election decisively three years later.  Could it be that expectations were lower with Reagan and Clinton than with Carter or Bush I?  Dubya is of course an extreme case.


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Smid
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« Reply #3441 on: January 03, 2010, 04:06:00 am »

Bush I's approvals may have been inflated by the fall of the Berlin Wall.
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alexg
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« Reply #3442 on: January 03, 2010, 04:04:41 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3443 on: January 03, 2010, 04:09:27 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley
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Vepres
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« Reply #3444 on: January 03, 2010, 04:30:46 pm »

Obama now has net negative approval on the pollster.com average.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3445 on: January 03, 2010, 05:19:56 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #3446 on: January 03, 2010, 05:39:09 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

EPIC-MRI - a local Michigan poling company out of Lansing - I find them to be pretty accurate for election polling.  Not sure about approval rating polls though.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #3447 on: January 03, 2010, 05:40:43 pm »

Found a source:
http://archives.chicagotribune.com/2009/dec/17/news/chi-ap-mi-obama-granholmpol

Pretty old poll...
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3448 on: January 03, 2010, 05:42:40 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

EPIC-MRI - a local Michigan poling company out of Lansing - I find them to be pretty accurate for election polling.  Not sure about approval rating polls though.

Ah, alright, thanks for the reference.  I've personally never heard of that polling agency.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #3449 on: January 03, 2010, 05:43:41 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

EPIC-MRI - a local Michigan poling company out of Lansing - I find them to be pretty accurate for election polling.  Not sure about approval rating polls though.

Ah, alright, thanks for the reference.  I've personally never heard of that polling agency.

They only do Michigan polls, but they're the main Michigan polling company (at least non-partisan company, that is).
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