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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1009770 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #3500 on: January 10, 2010, 12:59:01 pm »

Yeah, OK Dems are basically Republicans. Either they stay at home because they don`t want to vote for a black or liberal dude, or if they turn out and vote, about 40% of them defect to the GOP candidate.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3501 on: January 10, 2010, 05:05:38 pm »

As far as I'm informed, there are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

Pay attention to the approval margins among Democrats and Republicans, that's a lot more important.

I saw the sample sizes for people of different affiliations. One can create a valid poll out of a distorted sample if one norms the sample. If one gets 325 Democrats, 267 Republicans, 28 independents, and 1 libertarian the pollster might have decided after calling 250 Republicans who went 8-1 against Obama to quit calling Republicans because further calls would be superfluous. Does Oklahoma have that many Democrats or that few independents, or even so few libertarians? No way is Oklahoma so politically divided as to have 54.8% of its voters as registered Democrats. If I were guessing, I'd figure that 60% at the least of all Oklahoma voters are registered Republicans.

Quit guessing and stick to facts. There are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

They just don't vote like Democrats, and haven't voted like Democrats for a very long time!

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Franzl
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« Reply #3502 on: January 10, 2010, 05:06:35 pm »

As far as I'm informed, there are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

Pay attention to the approval margins among Democrats and Republicans, that's a lot more important.

I saw the sample sizes for people of different affiliations. One can create a valid poll out of a distorted sample if one norms the sample. If one gets 325 Democrats, 267 Republicans, 28 independents, and 1 libertarian the pollster might have decided after calling 250 Republicans who went 8-1 against Obama to quit calling Republicans because further calls would be superfluous. Does Oklahoma have that many Democrats or that few independents, or even so few libertarians? No way is Oklahoma so politically divided as to have 54.8% of its voters as registered Democrats. If I were guessing, I'd figure that 60% at the least of all Oklahoma voters are registered Republicans.

Quit guessing and stick to facts. There are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

They just don't vote like Democrats, and haven't voted like Democrats for a very long time!



Don't try to spin your way out. You claimed that 60% of voters in Oklahoma were registered Republicans. I proved that claim wrong.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3503 on: January 10, 2010, 05:09:42 pm »

Oklahoma exit poll from 2008 indeed showed 41% Democrat, 44% Republican

In other words, Obama is probably doing mcuh worse than what the poll found.  He's probably closer to around 30% in approval in Oklahoma.

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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3504 on: January 10, 2010, 05:12:06 pm »

http://blog.pos.org/2010/01/western-states-update-gop-back-on-top/

"President Obama’s job approval numbers have plummeted in the West. A majority of voters (53%) in Western states disapprove of the job he’s doing while 45% approve. Compare this to the 100-day mark in his term when Obama’s job approval in the West was 59% approve/33% disapprove."
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3505 on: January 10, 2010, 06:01:30 pm »


This map shows how states have voted from 1992-2008. Ignore letters.



Key: Democratic wins 1992-2008

Clinton twice, Gore, Kerry, and Obama
Clinton twice, Gore or Kerry (but not both), and Obama or Obama by >10% (Nevada)
Clinton twice, Obama <10%
Ohio -- Clinton once, Obama
Clinton once, no other Democratic wins
Missouri (Clinton twice, Republicans other times, but Obama very close in 2008)
Clinton twice, Obama losing by more than 10%
Obama only

NO DEMOCRATIC WINS:

Obama within 10% in 2008
Obama defeated by more than 10% in 2008


--------------------------------------

2000 and 2004 look much alike, and would have Obama winning only states shaded in deep blue and getting up to all of the four states in medium blue (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico). Such is short of an Obama win. Such results would have Obama winning 240-261 electoral votes, and of course losing. If Nevada really belongs to the Blue Firewall because it went for him by more than 10%, then Obama still ends up with about 261 electoral votes and a close loss. Obama will practically flood Nevada with campaign workers from California, and we saw how that works.

For Obama to lose anything in the dark blue category, he would have to have so catastrophic a Presidency that people would vote often enough against a 16-year pattern that he would be losing big -- really big.  

It's easy to figure what a bare Obama win looks like -- add anything (but only one) with a pastel color except for the odd district in Nebraska that likewise is unlikely to make a difference. I have left a dark shade of orange for Montana because it is unlikely to make a difference.  If Obama loses Nevada (if the state was a fluke in 2008) then he either needs two states in pastel shades if not Ohio or Florida.   Those states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia, states all likely to have 10 or more electoral votes in 2012. All were either Obama wins, were close, or would have been close in 2008 except that the Republican nominee was from the state.  Should he get everything in the pastel shades, then he has a near-400 EV win.

States in medium red (and NE-01) would be difficult, as they would require at least 4.5% shifts in the vote from 2008 to be possible. States in deep red or deep green are likely out of reach except in a severe landslide. The easiest of those states to get in deep red or green, tellingly, would be Texas.    

It's a long time until November 2012.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3506 on: January 10, 2010, 06:27:26 pm »


Don't try to spin your way out. You claimed that 60% of voters in Oklahoma were registered Republicans. I proved that claim wrong.

I was wrong. Oklahoma only votes as if a majority of voters of the voters are registered Republicans. There may be no reason for self-identified Democrats in Oklahoma who vote as Republicans re-registering as Republicans. I don't know the details -- open primaries?

Take a look at the Oklahoma Senate races of 1990 and 1994. David Boren, a conservative Democrat, won in a landslide in 1990 (83-16); he resigned in 1994 to become President of the University of Oklahoma, and James Inhofe won the seat in 1994 in a special election.  Boren has been the only Democratic Senator from Oklahoma since 1977.
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Franzl
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« Reply #3507 on: January 10, 2010, 06:28:58 pm »

I was wrong. Oklahoma only votes as if a majority of voters of the voters are registered Republicans. There may be no reason for self-identified Democrats in Oklahoma who vote as Republicans re-registering as Republicans. I don't know the details -- open primaries?

Actually, Oklahoma has closed primaries. Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3508 on: January 10, 2010, 06:57:43 pm »

http://blog.pos.org/2010/01/western-states-update-gop-back-on-top/

"President Obama’s job approval numbers have plummeted in the West. A majority of voters (53%) in Western states disapprove of the job he’s doing while 45% approve. Compare this to the 100-day mark in his term when Obama’s job approval in the West was 59% approve/33% disapprove."

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Quote
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Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming were three of Obama's "worst" states.

With those stats, Obama would barely win in 2012.
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change08
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« Reply #3509 on: January 10, 2010, 08:34:30 pm »

http://blog.pos.org/2010/01/western-states-update-gop-back-on-top/

"President Obama’s job approval numbers have plummeted in the West. A majority of voters (53%) in Western states disapprove of the job he’s doing while 45% approve. Compare this to the 100-day mark in his term when Obama’s job approval in the West was 59% approve/33% disapprove."

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Quote
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What a way to sensationalise a headline. :S

Of course Obama's Western approvals will drop if you take out Cali, one of the most Dem states in the country which also happens to be the biggest state in the country/region. That's like saying "Oh, let's look at Obama's approvals in the North-East, but let's ignore New York".
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Vepres
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« Reply #3510 on: January 10, 2010, 08:40:03 pm »

http://blog.pos.org/2010/01/western-states-update-gop-back-on-top/

"President Obama’s job approval numbers have plummeted in the West. A majority of voters (53%) in Western states disapprove of the job he’s doing while 45% approve. Compare this to the 100-day mark in his term when Obama’s job approval in the West was 59% approve/33% disapprove."

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Quote
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What a way to sensationalise a headline. :S

Of course Obama's Western approvals will drop if you take out Cali, one of the most Dem states in the country which also happens to be the biggest state in the country/region. That's like saying "Oh, let's look at Obama's approvals in the North-East, but let's ignore New York".

California is a given, many of the other states were thought to be trending Democrat. Besides, when you refer to the west, most people won't think of California.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3511 on: January 11, 2010, 06:51:55 pm »

Obama at 46/41 in the new CBS/NYT poll.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_obama_011110.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
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Badger
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« Reply #3512 on: January 12, 2010, 01:12:25 pm »

As far as I'm informed, there are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

Pay attention to the approval margins among Democrats and Republicans, that's a lot more important.

I saw the sample sizes for people of different affiliations. One can create a valid poll out of a distorted sample if one norms the sample. If one gets 325 Democrats, 267 Republicans, 28 independents, and 1 libertarian the pollster might have decided after calling 250 Republicans who went 8-1 against Obama to quit calling Republicans because further calls would be superfluous. Does Oklahoma have that many Democrats or that few independents, or even so few libertarians? No way is Oklahoma so politically divided as to have 54.8% of its voters as registered Democrats. If I were guessing, I'd figure that 60% at the least of all Oklahoma voters are registered Republicans.

Quit guessing and stick to facts. There are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

They just don't vote like Democrats, and haven't voted like Democrats for a very long time!



Don't try to spin your way out. You claimed that 60% of voters in Oklahoma were registered Republicans. I proved that claim wrong.

You were absolutely right on the first point; Pbrower's absolutely right on the second.

You both win! Hooray!!
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Badger
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« Reply #3513 on: January 12, 2010, 01:15:20 pm »

http://blog.pos.org/2010/01/western-states-update-gop-back-on-top/

"President Obama’s job approval numbers have plummeted in the West. A majority of voters (53%) in Western states disapprove of the job he’s doing while 45% approve. Compare this to the 100-day mark in his term when Obama’s job approval in the West was 59% approve/33% disapprove."

States mentioned:

Quote
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What a way to sensationalise a headline. :S

Of course Obama's Western approvals will drop if you take out Cali, one of the most Dem states in the country which also happens to be the biggest state in the country/region. That's like saying "Oh, let's look at Obama's approvals in the North-East, but let's ignore New York".

California is a given, many of the other states were thought to be trending Democrat. Besides, when you refer to the west, most people won't think of California.

Did the %9% approval poll from the 100 day mark exclude California (or the rest of the states in the new poll)? If not, this is Drudge level hackery. If so, it's accurate. Case closed.
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change08
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« Reply #3514 on: January 12, 2010, 05:55:34 pm »

A new Rass poll from MA has Obama at 57-41.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_special_senate_election_january_11_2010
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Rowan
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« Reply #3515 on: January 12, 2010, 05:57:57 pm »

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).
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J. J.
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« Reply #3516 on: January 12, 2010, 06:17:57 pm »

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).

I think it was a question regarding Obama directly.
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Franzl
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« Reply #3517 on: January 12, 2010, 06:40:09 pm »

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).

I think it was a question regarding Obama directly.

Isn't that still based on the "likely voters" in the special election?
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Rowan
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« Reply #3518 on: January 12, 2010, 11:40:55 pm »

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).

I think it was a question regarding Obama directly.

Isn't that still based on the "likely voters" in the special election?

Exactly, which is why I'm not using it.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #3519 on: January 13, 2010, 12:48:50 am »

RCP:

Approve: 48.3%
Disapprove: 46.0%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
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Rowan
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« Reply #3520 on: January 13, 2010, 11:08:04 am »

Nevada(Rasmussen)

Approve 49%
Disapprove 50%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/toplines/toplines_2010_nevada_senate_january_11_2010

Color stays the same. Date gets updated.



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change08
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« Reply #3521 on: January 13, 2010, 11:34:26 am »


Sort of a counter to the Mason/Dixon(?) favourability poll from a few days ago. Pretty good numbers considering the national number for Obama, considering it's Rasmussen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3522 on: January 13, 2010, 11:58:49 am »

Virtual tie in approval in Nevada; better than either Senator (an odd situation):



Obama would probably lose Nevada in 2010 (Senator Reid, D) and win in 2012 (Senator Ensign, R). I'll say this: if he can rescue Harry Reid (not likely) or some successor (more likely) in November he can win in 2012 in a landslide. That says more about Harry Reid than about President Obama.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3523 on: January 13, 2010, 01:27:12 pm »

New Hampshire(Rasmussen)

Approve 52%
Disapprove 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_new_hampshire_senate_january_12_2010

New Hampshire goes green.

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segwaystyle2012
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« Reply #3524 on: January 13, 2010, 01:30:35 pm »

Why aren't they polling Indiana? It was one of the closest states in 2008!
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