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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022826 times)
Special K
GWBFan
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« Reply #3525 on: January 13, 2010, 04:57:26 pm »


I'm the first to admit I'm not the brightest star in the sky but what does each color stand for on your map?

Just curious, thanks.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3526 on: January 13, 2010, 05:08:17 pm »

I'm not including numbers from the special election in my map(though in this case, nothing would have changed anyway).

I think it was a question regarding Obama directly.

Isn't that still based on the "likely voters" in the special election?

I'm not sure.  They might factor those out later.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3527 on: January 13, 2010, 07:24:09 pm »


I'm the first to admit I'm not the brightest star in the sky but what does each color stand for on your map?

Just curious, thanks.

Approval Ratings
30-39%- Dark Dark Red
40-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% but Approval is higher than Disapproval- Yellow
50-54%- Light Green
55-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Rowan
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« Reply #3528 on: January 13, 2010, 07:25:43 pm »

Idaho(Greg Smith)

Approve 35%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/omnibusresultsotterobama122009.pdf

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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3529 on: January 13, 2010, 07:38:00 pm »

I guess that's good for us so we can wipe off a gray state on the map, but why is anyone polling Idaho right now? 

Must have some free time.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3530 on: January 13, 2010, 07:49:56 pm »
« Edited: January 13, 2010, 08:16:14 pm by pbrower2a »



December poll from Idaho:



This pollster seems to confuse "approval" in the write-up with "favorability" in the numerical statistics...  35-54 favorability is right in the middle of the second-to-worst category for Obama support, so I will use it, as it isn't close enough to the "worst" category.  Obama isn't going to win Idaho except in a 530-EV landslide anyway. Idaho doesn't get polled often enough for me to cast this one away.

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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3531 on: January 13, 2010, 08:09:13 pm »

The question asks for approval:

First, Im going to name a few people you may have heard of. For each one, please tell me
how you rate their job approval strong approve, somewhat approve, somewhat
disapprove, or very disapprove. If you havent heard of that person, please say so. The
first one is

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3532 on: January 13, 2010, 08:17:56 pm »

I guess that's good for us so we can wipe off a gray state on the map, but why is anyone polling Idaho right now? 

Must have some free time.

Practice for something more difficult, perhaps?
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Alcon
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« Reply #3533 on: January 13, 2010, 08:26:48 pm »

More likely: Because it's an Idaho polling company who did a state survey and figured to gain some press for doing the Presidential too.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3534 on: January 13, 2010, 08:30:42 pm »

That's far more sensible than my guess, thanks.  Didn't realize it's just an Idaho polling company.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3535 on: January 13, 2010, 08:59:24 pm »

The question asks for approval:

First, Im going to name a few people you may have heard of. For each one, please tell me
how you rate their job approval strong approve, somewhat approve, somewhat
disapprove, or very disapprove. If you havent heard of that person, please say so. The
first one is



OK, simply a sloppy write-up by the pollster. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3536 on: January 13, 2010, 09:50:19 pm »



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/01/12/rel1b.pdf


Interesting polling question  from CNN/Opinion Dynamics:

(6. Do you consider President Obama  too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right?)

Jan 8-10, 2010

Too liberal                    46%
About right                   42%
Not liberal enough       10%
No opinion                     2%

(My conclusion):

If he gets half the support from those who think him "not liberal enough" for lack of a viable alternative, then he would win. That would still be 52.8%- 47.2%, which isn't far from Election 2008.

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Sewer
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« Reply #3537 on: January 13, 2010, 10:16:53 pm »

lol too liberal
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3538 on: January 14, 2010, 01:49:03 am »

New SurveyUSA Oregon & Washington numbers:

 

http://www.katu.com/news/local/81304817.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3539 on: January 14, 2010, 10:07:50 am »

Ohio (Rasmussen)Sad

46% Approve
50% Disapprove

This national telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_senate_race_january_12_2010

Connecticut (Quinnipiac University)Sad

55% Approve
41% Disapprove

From January 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,430 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 542 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and 378 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1412

Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor:

47% Approve
45% Disapprove

If the election for President in 2012 were held today, would you ?

Vote to re-elect Obama: 39%
Vote for someone else: 50%

The poll, conducted by Financial Dynamics, surveyed 1,200 adults between Jan. 3-7 for a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/01/majority_would.php
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Rowan
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« Reply #3540 on: January 14, 2010, 10:20:34 am »

Oregon, Washington, Ohio, and Connecticut updated.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3541 on: January 14, 2010, 10:27:13 am »

Question to your map:

When Michigan was polled in December by EPIC and Rasmussen, they showed approval at 44-48% and disapproval at 50-56%, yet your map shows MI yellow.

When Rasmussen had NV at 49-50 yesterday it is red.

What is right now ? If you apply red for negative approval then MI must be colored red like NV.

I guess yellow is only for positive approval below 50% ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3542 on: January 14, 2010, 10:36:50 am »

New Jersey (FDU)Sad

48% Approve
41% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 801 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from Jan. 4, 2010, through Jan. 10, 2010, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/skeptical2/final.pdf
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Rowan
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« Reply #3543 on: January 14, 2010, 10:37:54 am »

Question to your map:

When Michigan was polled in December by EPIC and Rasmussen, they showed approval at 44-48% and disapproval at 50-56%, yet your map shows MI yellow.

When Rasmussen had NV at 49-50 yesterday it is red.

What is right now ? If you apply red for negative approval then MI must be colored red like NV.

I guess yellow is only for positive approval below 50% ?

Michigan appears to be a mistake on my part. It should be red, I don't know why it's yellow. The latest poll there was 48/50 and therefore should be red.

And yes, yellow is for positive approval but under 50%.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3544 on: January 14, 2010, 10:39:18 am »

New Jersey added. Michigan fixed.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3545 on: January 14, 2010, 10:44:00 am »

I wonder when someone polls Indiana ...

It has potentially close Senate and House races this year and was close in 2008.

Ive heard that robo-polling is forbidden in Indiana, but it must have come into law after the 2008 elections, because IN was polled by robo-pollsters Rasmussen, SUSA and PPP prior to the election.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3546 on: January 14, 2010, 11:29:30 am »

Nevada(PPP)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Nev_114.pdf

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3547 on: January 14, 2010, 11:48:27 am »
« Edited: January 14, 2010, 11:51:09 am by pbrower2a »

Ohio, Oregon, New Jersey, Washington:




46% approval is probably enough to win Ohio.

The recent Nevada poll averages out with another for no real change.

... New Hampshire begs for a fresh poll. No way can New Hampshire be as unsympathetic to Obama as is Idaho.


Unlike Rowan Brandon, who distinguishes between "under 50%" and "over 50%" I go for "approval under disapproval" (shades of yellow to dark brown), a tie (white), and "approval greater than disapproval" (shades of green). It's strictly a matter of taste, and I can't say that one is more relevant than the other at this point.

If there is a real difference it may be that his suggests the idea that if the GOP has a really-strong candidate in the wings, Obama loses in places in which his approval rating is below 50%. Mine suggests that the GOP lacks someone capable of offering an alternative, and that many disgruntled conservatives will find the choice between an uninspiring right-winger and an effective incumbent cause them to not vote.    
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3548 on: January 14, 2010, 11:49:54 am »

... New Hampshire begs for a fresh poll.

NH was polled by Rasmussen in the last few days. I think he had 53% approval there.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3549 on: January 14, 2010, 11:55:12 am »

... New Hampshire begs for a fresh poll.

NH was polled by Rasmussen in the last few days. I think he had 53% approval there.

I'll take your word for it.


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