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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1023147 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #3575 on: January 15, 2010, 10:09:46 am »

He's actually been moving upward in the Fox poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3576 on: January 15, 2010, 11:04:24 am »

California (SurveyUSA)Sad

59% Approve (+4)
38% Disapprove (-3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas (SurveyUSA)Sad

40% Approve (+4)
56% Disapprove (-3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e
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Zarn
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« Reply #3577 on: January 15, 2010, 11:04:29 am »


Solid 'Bama
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Rowan
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« Reply #3578 on: January 15, 2010, 11:16:43 am »

California and Kansas updated.

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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3579 on: January 15, 2010, 12:19:06 pm »


Colorado seems to be awfully consistent around that 52% disapproval number.  I didn't expect a state that voted so heavily for BO to turn quickly, but such is life.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #3580 on: January 15, 2010, 01:25:11 pm »

Massachusettes (Suffolk University)Sad

48% Approve
43% Disapprove

The statewide survey of 500 Massachusetts registered voters was conducted Jan. 11-13, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

http://www.suffolk.edu/39994.html

This poll shouldn't be included because it is for likely voters that are voting in the special election Jan 19th. Not all likely voters...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3581 on: January 15, 2010, 02:23:43 pm »

Are you ready for a new weird map?

The first one isn't so weird: it's how the states actually voted in 2008:



I'm going to show how long the Democrats have gone in winning an election without winning certain states, or  how long the Republicans have gone since winning a state during a Presidential election that it lost. They obviously won the 2008 election without winning the states in deep blue.



Clinton never won Indiana, North Carolina, or NE-2, and didn't win Colorado in 1996... those are in medium-blue. Clinton won election without Florida in 1992, so color that one light blue. A good clue for 2012: Obama can win with everything in pink.

Carter barely won election in 1976 -- and probably shouldn't have. He lost many states that Democrats largely take for granted these days (light green):



Carter relied heavily on the South for electoral votes, and he would disappoint much of the South very badly.



Kennedy won without Ohio and   Wisconsin in 1960 (red); Truman lost Delaware, Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania in 1948 (maroon). To give some idea of how long it has been since the Republicans won either Massachusetts, Minnesota, or Rhode Island and still lost the Presidential election -- it was 1916, and Charles Hughes (remember him, anyone?) won all three.

Needless to say, Hawaii has never voted for a Republican nominee except in a Republican blowout and DC has never voted for the Republican under any circumstances.



 



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Alcon
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« Reply #3582 on: January 15, 2010, 03:19:27 pm »

For a healthy reminder of why we shouldn't be overthinking polls: Massachusetts, the GOP-leaning swing state of 2012.

Probably exagerated a bit, and note the 25/60 ratings Palin pulls in that same poll for comparison. Romney's numbers, at 49/43 are not that hot either.

That said, something is happening, and a lot of legislators on Beacon Hill are quite scared at the moment.

Just as well. The combination of arrogance and complacency is the bane of good government.

And the bane of other things, too...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3583 on: January 15, 2010, 04:38:35 pm »
« Edited: January 15, 2010, 04:46:52 pm by pbrower2a »

Are you ready for the opposite?

The first one isn't so weird: it's how the states actually voted in 2004:



I'm going to show how long the Republicans have gone in winning an election without winning certain states, or  how long the Democrats have gone since winning a state during a Presidential election that it lost. The Republicans obviously won the 2004 election without winning the states in pink.



Al Gore managed to win Iowa and New Mexico (white) in 2000; states in pink or gray would not be enough to win in 2004 or 2008, but they would be close; they would have been enough before 2000. Had Gore won New Hampshire, he would have won the election outright. Obama needed 5 more electoral votes (Nevada) to secure a tie in the Electoral College only to depend upon the outcome of a vote in the House of Representatives, or more (most likely Colorado) to win outright, with the Republican nominee stuck trying to defend a bunch of states scattered across the country.  Obama will need  more than even Colorado in addition to the states in pink and gray in 2012.



The map can now begin to look strange. George Herbert Walker Bush couldn't win West Virginia (pale orange), once a stalwart Democratic state but obviously no longer so, in 1988; Ronald Reagan may have won a landslide repudiation of Jimmy Carter in 1980, but not in Carter's own state of Georgia (orange). Georgia would now be a desperation target for Obama, and Obama can kiss any chance of winning West Virginia good-bye except in an electoral contest in which he will win at least 400 electoral votes.

"Nixon's the One" applies to 1968 and 1972.  He lost only one state and DC in 1972, but in 1968 he was the last Republican to lose Texas (pale green -- to Humphrey) and "Kukluxistan" to the segregationist George Wallace (dark green) in an election that a Republican won. The distinction is worth making:



Did America say "I LIKE IKE" in 1952 and 1956? 1956 was the last year in which Missouri, North Carolina,  and South Carolina voted against the Republican nominee in a Republican win;  1952 was the last year in which Kentucky voted against the Republican in a Republican win. I'm going to show those in pale blue without a distinction because the elections were extremely similar.  Some of the states that voted for Stevenson would also vote for George Wallace, and I have already shown those. That is beginning to look like a long time ago...



... Because of four Democratic wins of the Presidency by FDR and one by Truman,  the next-latest opportunity for a state to vote Democratic against a Republican winner was 1928, when Louisiana did for the last time for the Democrat. It would again vote in a losing election against a Republican in 1968, but then for third-party racist George Wallace. Louisiana does not show for 1928.

Florida, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia last voted Democratic against a Republican winner in 1924; they are in medium blue.    

Farther back?  One largely speaks of states that voted for William Jennings Bryant in 1896, 1900, or 1908.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3584 on: January 15, 2010, 04:42:14 pm »

California(Rasmussen)

Approve 54%
Disapprove 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/california/election_2010_california_senate

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change08
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« Reply #3585 on: January 15, 2010, 04:54:25 pm »

New York: 56/41

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ny_2010_sen_marist_11314.php
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3586 on: January 15, 2010, 05:19:26 pm »
« Edited: January 15, 2010, 05:21:25 pm by pbrower2a »




Marginal Obama gains in Kansas (which shows) and Colorado (which doesn't)... California, New York updates. The GOP nominee really has to win Kansas by about 10% to have a viable chance to win. Obama can't win Kansas except in a landslide of at least 475 electoral votes.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Maryland and Montana (November), which rarely get polled.


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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #3587 on: January 16, 2010, 08:23:34 pm »

I think that New Mexico needs to be updated. When will the pollsters be out?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3588 on: January 17, 2010, 12:46:13 am »

I think that New Mexico needs to be updated. When will the pollsters be out?

Good question. I can think of some other states that could use some fresh polls. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin... not that I would expect Obama to do particularly well in any of those except Iowa and Wisconsin.  It's hard to believe that Michigan could be in the same category with South Carolina or that Virginia is in the same category with Kansas. 

Has either Mississippi or Vermont ever been polled?

 
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change08
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« Reply #3589 on: January 17, 2010, 10:50:03 am »

I think that New Mexico needs to be updated. When will the pollsters be out?
Has either Mississippi or Vermont ever been polled?


I definately don't recall Vermont getting polled.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3590 on: January 19, 2010, 12:34:54 pm »

Texas(Rasmussen)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_governor_s_race_january_17_2010

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change08
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« Reply #3591 on: January 19, 2010, 12:37:23 pm »


Rather impressed with that tbh, considering it's Texas..
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J. J.
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« Reply #3592 on: January 19, 2010, 12:38:44 pm »

Rowan, could you add the range that the colors mean at the bottom of the maps?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3593 on: January 19, 2010, 12:51:10 pm »

Yeah, those are quite strong numbers for Texas.
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change08
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« Reply #3594 on: January 19, 2010, 01:02:37 pm »
« Edited: January 19, 2010, 01:16:42 pm by change08 »

Pollster's trendline appears to be showing a slight national bounce, although it could just be the ABC poll (outlier).

UPDATE: 50/40 nationwide in CBS poll (with 25% of the GOP approving... lol)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_national_survey_cbs_11417.php
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3595 on: January 19, 2010, 02:22:18 pm »

Louisiana (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
61% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Louisiana was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 14, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/louisiana/toplines/toplines_election_2010_louisiana_senate_race_january_14_2010
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3596 on: January 19, 2010, 02:39:36 pm »
« Edited: January 19, 2010, 02:49:11 pm by pbrower2a »


This is the first poll to occur including even part of the time following the earthquake in Haiti, arguably President Obama's first acid test as an administrator. America has been lucky in not having any natural disasters while Obama has been President. Now Haiti gets it -- and gets it with obscene brutality of nature at its absolute worst. Judgment on how President Obama responds to that horrible earthquake is incomplete. Texas is not in a seismic zone, but much of the oil infrastructure is largely in a hurricane zone.

44-54 is about how Texas voted in 2008, which is a bad sign for the GOP in a national election. Unless Rick Perry is on the Presidential ballot the GOP nominee for President, as it now stands, will be unlikely to win Texas by a secure margin.  Texas could be a genuine battleground should the economy implode upon Obama politically in such states as Michigan and Ohio.   Texas hasn't voted Democratic in a win for a Republican Presidential nominee since 1968, when Hubert Humphrey won the state, and last went for the Democratic nominee in 1976 (Jimmy Carter).

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3597 on: January 19, 2010, 02:45:57 pm »


I think that New Mexico needs to be updated. When will the pollsters be out?

Good question. I can think of some other states that could use some fresh polls. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin... not that I would expect Obama to do particularly well in any of those except Iowa and Wisconsin.  It's hard to believe that Michigan could be in the same category with South Carolina or that Virginia is in the same category with Kansas. 


Sometimes you get exactly what you ask for.

TEXAS

and sometimes you see what you don't want to see
Louisiana (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
61% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Louisiana was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 14, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/louisiana/toplines/toplines_election_2010_louisiana_senate_race_january_14_2010

Texas is bigger news than Louisiana, and Louisiana was about 40-60 in December, so the color change may be an exaggeration of a huge shift.









Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Maryland and Montana (November), which rarely get polled.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3598 on: January 19, 2010, 03:04:33 pm »

Pollster's trendline appears to be showing a slight national bounce, although it could just be the ABC poll (outlier).

UPDATE: 50/40 nationwide in CBS poll (with 25% of the GOP approving... lol)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_national_survey_cbs_11417.php

It could be related to the President's response to the earthquake in Haiti. This is new, it can change, and it can fade. One of the standard tests of how the electorate responds to the President is his response to natural disasters. We Americans were lucky in the autumn of  2009 with a comparatively-tame hurricane season.

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MK
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« Reply #3599 on: January 19, 2010, 06:30:53 pm »

Obama has wasted too much capital on healthcare ( wayy too much if it fails anyway).
This administration should be setting the agenda not allowing debate within the country to take control of it.  Say what you want to about the evil bush adminstation, you can't deny they knew how to get the message across and stir the country in their direction.  They'd been better off attacking the jobs/unemployment issue.


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