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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022371 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3675 on: January 26, 2010, 04:57:36 pm »

if 33 hours can be an agony on election night with a critical state in the balance, and 33 days going into the election can be a seeming eternity, then what is 33 months?

Totally irrelevant.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3676 on: January 26, 2010, 05:12:54 pm »

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3677 on: January 26, 2010, 05:38:16 pm »

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.

46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3678 on: January 26, 2010, 05:47:27 pm »



46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.

I'm not exactly ready to write Obama off.  Iraq was a 2004 issue and will shrink or disappear by 2012, unless something really goes bad.  The problems is Iran and possibly Yemen.

Iraq could come back if Iran attempts to intervene.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3679 on: January 26, 2010, 07:21:54 pm »

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3680 on: January 27, 2010, 01:06:29 am »

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.

A negative vote from someone who thinks the President the reincarnation of Josef Stalin counts just as much as someone who simply thinks him a little weaker than the opponent.

In 2012 it likely comes down to the GOTV drives.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3681 on: January 27, 2010, 08:47:17 am »

On Rasmussen, Obama's positive and negative numbers have not moved out of a 5 point range since the first week of December.

He's been at 46.5% +/- 2.5 points.  It is remarkably stable.

46.5% approval is enough to win re-election.

Does anyone notice that American involvement in Iraq has been shrinking? It is increasing in Afghanistan, which is to be expected.

it's not enough,  if the republican candidate is good.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3682 on: January 27, 2010, 10:09:03 am »

Florida and Delaware updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #3683 on: January 27, 2010, 10:49:43 am »

One think that should be noted is Obama's negative numbers are tending to higher than for other presidents as the same point.

A negative vote from someone who thinks the President the reincarnation of Josef Stalin counts just as much as someone who simply thinks him a little weaker than the opponent.

In 2012 it likely comes down to the GOTV drives.

No, there is something more.  Look at Obama's Strongly Approve and Approve numbers on Rasmussen.  Over the last month, they been about 20 points apart.  Strongly Disapprove and Disapprove have been around 12 points apart.  His current supporters tend to be weaker in their support, and his detractors tend to be stronger.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

And, you can look at it historically, on Gallup.

Reagan had the lowest the approval number of any elected postwar president at this point in his presidency, 49%.  He had a disapproval rate of 40%.  Obama has a 50% approval at the same time, and a 45% disapproval.  Even when Reagan had approval numbers around 47%, his disapproval numbers were still about five points lower than his approval numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

I'm saying Obama is tending to be more polarizing; the people that don't like him really don't like him.  The people like him, really don't like him all that much.

Now, Obama can win if even those don't feel really strongly supportive of him vote for him, but if things go badly, he may be very likely to lose those weakly supportive of him.

BTW:  I'm not in the group that strongly disapproves as of yet.   
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3684 on: January 27, 2010, 01:55:57 pm »

Pennsylvania (F & M)Sad

38% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjan10_1.pdf
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #3685 on: January 27, 2010, 02:05:28 pm »


lol POLLFAIL!
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3686 on: January 27, 2010, 02:07:04 pm »


This definitely deserves one of pbrower's "S" marks.  Or just ignore it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3687 on: January 27, 2010, 02:11:01 pm »


This definitely deserves one of pbrower's "S" marks.  Or just ignore it.

Im not so sure, because many people who say "fair" in this poll might actually vote "approve" in a "approve/disapprove" poll.

Excellent/Good numbers always tend to be lower than Approve/Disapprove numbers (Rasmussen showed 46% of PAians approve of Obama just recently).

Anyway RB and PB: Excellent/Good polls shouldn't be added to the map.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3688 on: January 27, 2010, 02:16:07 pm »

I've never used E/G/F/P in my maps.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3689 on: January 27, 2010, 02:40:11 pm »


F & M is one of the top polls for PA.  I'm not happy with the categories, however.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3690 on: January 27, 2010, 02:55:07 pm »
« Edited: January 27, 2010, 08:25:38 pm by pbrower2a »


This definitely deserves one of pbrower's "S" marks.  Or just ignore it.


As an EGFP result it can be rejected as such, but the strange write-up (unusually enthusiastic toward Republican candidates) brings to question its genuineness. I have no idea what "the most likely voters" means. There will be outliers, and there will be partisan polls (indeed, I accepted a partisan poll by a Republican organization in January because the state in question rarely gets polled).

Indeed it gets harsher treatment than my "S" -- complete rejection.




 
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3691 on: January 28, 2010, 09:34:28 am »

Obama at 46% approve, 54% disapprove in Wisconsin among 2010 likely voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_january_26_2010
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Zarn
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« Reply #3692 on: January 28, 2010, 09:51:38 am »

It looks like a small bump is over. Some of the states that were seeming to come back to Obama's column are dropping again.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3693 on: January 28, 2010, 11:22:26 am »

Wisconsin updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3694 on: January 28, 2010, 01:52:39 pm »
« Edited: January 28, 2010, 01:59:22 pm by pbrower2a »

Great day for the American Right:



The last time that Wisconsin was competitive for the GOP, Kerry was the nominee.

What does the Hard Right have to offer, anyway?



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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3695 on: January 28, 2010, 02:23:23 pm »

I wouldn't worry about it pbrower, Wisconsin won't go Red in 2012 anyway unless Obama continues as a train wreck, which is unlikely.  Some good legislation is bound to pass at some point, or the economy is bound to turn around.  My thoughts anyway...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3696 on: January 28, 2010, 02:54:42 pm »

Iowa (Rasmussen)Sad

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 26, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_2010_election_iowa_senate_january_26_2010
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3697 on: January 28, 2010, 03:46:07 pm »

I think he'll probably get a small SOTU bump. It won't last long though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3698 on: January 28, 2010, 04:03:16 pm »

I think he'll probably get a small SOTU bump. It won't last long though.

Somebody posted an average and said that there wouldn't be even a short term bump.  I wouldn't read too much into a "no bump," if that happens.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3699 on: January 28, 2010, 04:08:04 pm »

Iowa Updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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