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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1023524 times)
ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3875 on: February 15, 2010, 10:38:26 am »

O at 51/48 in Washington per Rasmussen...these state polls are barely believable anymore, they are all extremely "flat"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/washington/election_2010_washington_senate
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3876 on: February 15, 2010, 01:38:24 pm »

Kalifornia (Rasmussen)Sad

58% Approve
41% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in California was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on February 11, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/california/toplines/toplines_2010_election_california_senate_election_february_11_2010
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Rowan
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« Reply #3877 on: February 15, 2010, 06:20:09 pm »

Texas, Washington, and California updated.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #3878 on: February 16, 2010, 11:00:11 am »

On Rasmussen's monthly numbers, Obama bottomed in December and improved slightly in January.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_month_by_month

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memphis
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« Reply #3879 on: February 16, 2010, 11:02:26 am »

He's been doing better on gallup as well. Up to 53% now after being consistently below 50 for a while.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3880 on: February 16, 2010, 11:44:04 am »

He's been doing better on gallup as well. Up to 53% now after being consistently below 50 for a while.

Gallup has some problems, including some fairly wide swings.  Rasmussen is has been uber stable.
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memphis
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« Reply #3881 on: February 16, 2010, 12:49:53 pm »

He's been doing better on gallup as well. Up to 53% now after being consistently below 50 for a while.

Gallup has some problems, including some fairly wide swings.  Rasmussen is has been uber stable.

It has swung very little. It was in the high forties for a couple of weeks and has now been in the low fifties for about a week.
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #3882 on: February 16, 2010, 02:14:00 pm »

He's been doing better on gallup as well. Up to 53% now after being consistently below 50 for a while.

Gallup has some problems, including some fairly wide swings.  Rasmussen is has been uber stable.

The two use completely different methodologies. Rasmussen is always going to be more stable.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3883 on: February 16, 2010, 09:44:14 pm »

CNN/Opinion Research:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/02/16/rel4a.pdf

approve: 49%
disapprove: 50%

Does Obama deserve to be reelected?

yes 44%
no 52%
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change08
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« Reply #3884 on: February 16, 2010, 10:02:39 pm »

Does Obama deserve to be reelected?

yes 44%
no 52%


Those types of questions are redundant. Only match-ups with actual people matter.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #3885 on: February 16, 2010, 10:05:19 pm »

Does Obama deserve to be reelected?

yes 44%
no 52%


Those types of questions are redundant. Only match-ups with actual people matter.

Not really, I'm sure some people who disapprove of the way he is doing would still vote for him and vice versa.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3886 on: February 17, 2010, 09:42:31 am »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)
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J. J.
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« Reply #3887 on: February 17, 2010, 10:02:29 am »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

Up three points in two days.

It might be a bad sample size, but Obama is definitely off his lows of 12/09.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3888 on: February 17, 2010, 11:33:39 am »

A first look @ Oregon (Senate, President) today by Rasmussen. Should be out in the next hour.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3889 on: February 17, 2010, 11:54:31 am »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

Up three points in two days.

It might be a bad sample size, but Obama is definitely off his lows of 12/09.

Actually, still within the margin of error (4%), but barely so. But 50-50 approval translates into about 53% at election time, which is a decisive (Obama 2008) win.

Changes in the approval ratings can reflect events. A heavily-publicized appearance (SOTU address or some other major speech) might have a transitory effect. A major good event (we shall see about Marja, Afghanistan) or a discreditable scandal would have a more lasting effect.

Should the US armed forces finish off the Taliban as a military force, then they will have undone one of the messes that George W. Bush left behind. If you want a good analogy, try the Korean "Conflict" that came to a veritable end when Dwight Eisenhower was President. No, Truman did nothing wrong, which explains how Truman ranks among the best ten Presidents and  Dubya among the worst. Getting out of a nasty war gracefully was  the top achievement of Dwight Eisenhower, and he is generally seen among the best ten Presidents in American history.

But I am ahead of myself. We still need a decisive conclusion in Afghanistan. All that President Obama may have done may have been to let the generals, admirals, and intelligence chiefs do what they do best with minimal interference and no personal grandstanding. That is the best that anyone without military experience could ever do.

.....

There will be fresh statewide polls, and if jumps appear in enough of them about five days from now, then something is afoot.

Graceful exits from Iraq and Afghanistan and a sound economy would win President Obama re-election in an Eisenhower-scale  landslide even with weak or controversial legislation. Of course the job is far from complete.  
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3890 on: February 17, 2010, 12:00:29 pm »

Oregon (Rasmussen)Sad

50% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Oregon was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 16, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/oregon/toplines/toplines_oregon_senate_february_16_2010
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Holmes
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« Reply #3891 on: February 17, 2010, 12:14:53 pm »

Oregon is at Rasmussen's national average?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3892 on: February 17, 2010, 12:59:19 pm »
« Edited: February 17, 2010, 02:12:29 pm by pbrower2a »


California, Oregon, Washington:




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

....No GOP surge on the West Coast.



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change08
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« Reply #3893 on: February 17, 2010, 01:15:22 pm »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3894 on: February 17, 2010, 02:22:19 pm »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?

It could be. Note that the captive is the Taliban's top military leader. Such likely throws the Taliban into disarray and makes its defeat more likely.

Good news gets good polling results even if the President has little to do with the cause of the good news. Does he seem to be the sort to try to micro-manage the generals?  Of course we have yet to know the whole story.   
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jmfcst
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« Reply #3895 on: February 17, 2010, 02:55:25 pm »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?

It could be. Note that the captive is the Taliban's top military leader. Such likely throws the Taliban into disarray and makes its defeat more likely.

Good news gets good polling results even if the President has little to do with the cause of the good news. Does he seem to be the sort to try to micro-manage the generals?  Of course we have yet to know the whole story.   

probably more a bump due to Obamacare being out of the spotlight....though the RCP average is still within a point of Obama's low and a new CNN poll has Congress hitting a historic low.

Obama is over a barrel internationally due to the preception of his apology tour appearing as a retreat.  If we lose a single airliner, look for Obama's approval to drop 10 points overnight as he loses the women's vote.  If something worse happens, Obama will all but officially become a lame duck and will have a challenger to the 2012 Dem nomination.

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Rowan
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« Reply #3896 on: February 17, 2010, 03:15:27 pm »

Oregon.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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change08
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« Reply #3897 on: February 17, 2010, 05:11:39 pm »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?

It could be. Note that the captive is the Taliban's top military leader. Such likely throws the Taliban into disarray and makes its defeat more likely.

Good news gets good polling results even if the President has little to do with the cause of the good news. Does he seem to be the sort to try to micro-manage the generals?  Of course we have yet to know the whole story.  
If we lose a single airliner, look for Obama's approval to drop 10 points overnight as he loses the women's vote.  If something worse happens, Obama will all but officially become a lame duck and will have a challenger to the 2012 Dem nomination.



I still don't get that arguement. You know what happened to Bush's approvals after 9/11, right?

BTW, PPP's monthly head-to-head's are due tomorrow.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3898 on: February 17, 2010, 05:28:27 pm »

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

Up three points in two days.

It might be a bad sample size, but Obama is definitely off his lows of 12/09.

Actually, still within the margin of error (4%), but barely so. But 50-50 approval translates into about 53% at election time, which is a decisive (Obama 2008) win.



I'm not sure about the daily, but the monthly averages have an MOE of 1%.  December was definitely below November/October.

@ Rasmussen today:

50% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

When was Obama last at 50 or above on Rass? What's this bounce in aid of? The taliban leader who was found?

Late September, but he hit 50% in mid November and after the SOTU.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3899 on: February 17, 2010, 05:31:40 pm »

The Rasmussen tracking has an MOE of 3%, but Obama has been out of that at times.
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