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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022959 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3925 on: February 20, 2010, 01:30:33 am »

Newsweek/Princeton Survey Research:

48% Approve
40% Disapprove

The NEWSWEEK Poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International with a nationally representative sample of 1,009 adults, age 18 years and older, on Feb. 17 and 18. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for results based on the total adults.

http://www.newsweek.com/media/84/1001_ftop_v2.pdf

The Economist/YouGov:

51% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20100219.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3926 on: February 20, 2010, 07:41:30 am »

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Vermont now. This is the first 60+% approval for the President in a long time. That's a small area, but you now get to see what 80% green looks like.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.


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Zarn
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« Reply #3927 on: February 20, 2010, 09:57:28 am »

It's probably in the late 50's, given the pollster. I'm actually surprised it is not higher.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3928 on: February 20, 2010, 12:30:27 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 53%

Note nowever that Obama's "strongly approve" number is 23%, tied with the lowest ever.

Either 50% approval number or this one (or both) is likely to be a bad sample.  It is worth watching.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3929 on: February 20, 2010, 02:12:38 pm »

Gallup: 48/45

Gallup really is one erratic pollster.  He was at 53/40 just seven days ago.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3930 on: February 20, 2010, 02:21:51 pm »

Approvals look like a bunch of noise to me for the past few months - around 50% in adult polls and 2-4 points less in RV/LV polls. 

Carry on, I'll post again if something interesting happens.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3931 on: February 21, 2010, 04:41:47 am »

It's probably in the late 50's, given the pollster. I'm actually surprised it is not higher.

Oh come on, it's not even a Dailykos sponsored poll and how should it be any higher than that given his national approval numbers?
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Zarn
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« Reply #3932 on: February 21, 2010, 08:00:16 am »

It's probably in the late 50's, given the pollster. I'm actually surprised it is not higher.

Oh come on, it's not even a Dailykos sponsored poll and how should it be any higher than that given his national approval numbers?

It's Vermont...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3933 on: February 21, 2010, 08:45:15 am »

Iowa - Des Moines Register/Selzer:

46% Approve

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100221/NEWS09/2210329/-1/iowapoll/Iowa-s-independent-voters-turning-away-from-Obama
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3934 on: February 21, 2010, 11:05:28 am »


Selzer is one of the best pollsters, but the disapproval is not shown. In the 45-49% approval range it is essential to know whether approval is higher than disapproval, as there are three different categories for such approval (approval greater, disapproval greater, or tie) -- so I can't use it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3935 on: February 21, 2010, 11:59:29 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%

Disapprove 54%

Obama's "strongly approve" number is 22%, the lowest ever.

Again, it might be a bad sample, but it deserves watching.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3936 on: February 21, 2010, 12:08:20 pm »

Given that the "Strongly approve" figures dropped sharply in the past days, it might be that liberal Democrats are abandoning him because he wants to build 2 more nuclear reactors in Georgia.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3937 on: February 21, 2010, 12:18:34 pm »

Given that the "Strongly approve" figures dropped sharply in the past days, it might be that liberal Democrats are abandoning him because he wants to build 2 more nuclear reactors in Georgia.

I doubt that there's more than 3 people in the US who care about whether we build nuclear reactors in GA.
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Franzl
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« Reply #3938 on: February 21, 2010, 12:21:11 pm »

Given that the "Strongly approve" figures dropped sharply in the past days, it might be that liberal Democrats are abandoning him because he wants to build 2 more nuclear reactors in Georgia.

Tender, there are extremely few people seriously opposed to nuclear power in the U.S., it's accepted overwhelmingly by anyone that matters.

That's certainly an issue where I appreciate the American thinking Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #3939 on: February 21, 2010, 12:24:35 pm »

Given that the "Strongly approve" figures dropped sharply in the past days, it might be that liberal Democrats are abandoning him because he wants to build 2 more nuclear reactors in Georgia.

I'm not too sure that there wasn't a bad sample, pro-Obama, that pushed up the numbers on 2/17, 2/18, and 2/19 (27%).  The week before his "Strongly Approve" numbers were all at 24%, 25%, then there was a three day jump.  Then there was this drop.  It might be erosion, or another bad sample.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3940 on: February 21, 2010, 12:35:12 pm »

Given that the "Strongly approve" figures dropped sharply in the past days, it might be that liberal Democrats are abandoning him because he wants to build 2 more nuclear reactors in Georgia.

Tender, there are extremely few people seriously opposed to nuclear power in the U.S., it's accepted overwhelmingly by anyone that matters.

That's certainly an issue where I appreciate the American thinking Smiley

Rasmussen had it 49-30 or so in favor of the construction, with many undecided. Hardcore liberals might oppose this stuff and say temporarily "somewhat approve" instead of "strongly approve" to him. Im not talking about Republicans or Independents, which are generally in favor of the nuke plants.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #3941 on: February 21, 2010, 02:21:12 pm »

This is really not in the news at all.
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MK
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« Reply #3942 on: February 21, 2010, 06:32:10 pm »

 The Ump index  is all obama needs to worry about when it comes to his approval ratings.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3943 on: February 22, 2010, 12:08:25 pm »

No change in the Rasmussen numbers today.  If it was a bad sample, it should drop out in tomorrow's numbers.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3944 on: February 22, 2010, 02:16:24 pm »

Iowa(Rasmussen)
Approve 45%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_2010_iowa_governor_election_february_18_2010

Vermont updated as well.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3945 on: February 22, 2010, 02:19:57 pm »

It's probably in the late 50's, given the pollster. I'm actually surprised it is not higher.

Oh come on, it's not even a Dailykos sponsored poll and how should it be any higher than that given his national approval numbers?

It's Vermont...

And? It's already way higher than his national approval numbers so I fail to see what you are getting at.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3946 on: February 22, 2010, 05:10:10 pm »

The Rasmussen poll for Iowa is valid because it shows a disapproval:




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3947 on: February 23, 2010, 12:59:22 am »

Georgia (Rasmussen)Sad

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Georgia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/georgia/toplines/toplines_election_2010_georgia_governor_february_18_2010
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3948 on: February 23, 2010, 07:36:11 am »

Quinnipiac Ohio: Obama 44/52
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Beet
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« Reply #3949 on: February 23, 2010, 07:41:01 am »

I don't understand how his approval can be so low in the states yet still at around 48/48 (according to pollster) nationally? If it's at 44/52 in Ohio it seems like it should be near 44/52 nationally.
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