The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1205263 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #4025 on: March 02, 2010, 04:20:23 PM »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 52%

Obama's "strongly approve" number is 27%, +1; "strongly disapprove" is at 40, +2.





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4026 on: March 02, 2010, 04:23:16 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2010, 11:46:31 PM by pbrower2a »

PA, RI updates; others change nothing.  



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4027 on: March 03, 2010, 12:54:16 AM »

New York (Rasmussen)Sad

57% Approve
42% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New York was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 1, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_york/toplines/toplines_2010_new_york_governor_election_march_1_2010
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RIP Robert H Bork
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« Reply #4028 on: March 03, 2010, 09:55:52 AM »


An improvement over his actual vote total, for what it's worth...

Yeah, that's kind of interesting.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4029 on: March 03, 2010, 09:57:11 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53%

Obama's "strongly approve" number at -1; "strongly disapprove" unchanged


His January number were 47% approve, 52% disapproved.  Since October, Obama's monthly numbers approval have ranged from 46%-48%.  Very stable.



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DariusNJ
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« Reply #4030 on: March 03, 2010, 04:36:53 PM »


An improvement over his actual vote total, for what it's worth...


Interesting, but a bit high I would think. Rasmussen has Obama at 47% nationally and then at 38% in Oklahoma? Only 9 points less?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4031 on: March 04, 2010, 01:44:28 AM »

Tennessee (MTSU)Sad

42% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 15-27, 2010, by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 634 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of ± 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence.

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/s2010/MTSU%20Poll%20National%20Politics%20Report%20Spring%202010.htm
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4032 on: March 04, 2010, 08:33:47 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2010, 08:51:19 AM by pbrower2a »

Tennessee checks in for the first time in a long time:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Surprisingly good for Obama. Still a February poll.

Maine, Mississippi, Montana, and West Virginia polls would be extremely welcome.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4033 on: March 04, 2010, 08:49:48 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2010, 08:52:05 AM by pbrower2a »


An improvement over his actual vote total, for what it's worth...


Interesting, but a bit high I would think. Rasmussen has Obama at 47% nationally and then at 38% in Oklahoma? Only 9 points less?

If you look at my approval map, you will notice that President Obama has higher approval than disapproval in every polled state that George W. Bush failed to win in both 2000 and 2004 except for Wisconsin. Wisconsin was very close in 2004, so it is almost a quibble, but if you trade South Carolina for Wisconsin, you get a fair idea of the Blue Firewall, deep blue for those with percentages over 50% and plain blue for states with larger approvals than disapproval but under 50%  -- and I will guess that approval ratings for Obama  are above 50% in Maine, Hawaii, and DC -- that President Obama wil have to win to have a real shot at re-election.

States in sand include the three states that Dubya won once in 2000 and 2004 (IA, NH, NM)-- and Obama needs to win all three of them to have a real chance. All states in sand show Obama with at least 45% support. But in a nationwide election, an incumbent President has about a 50% chance of winning nationally with an approval of 44% nationwide (Nate Silver) in the Gallup approval poll closest to the election. To suggest that the same applies to states seems reasonable enough. At 47% approval, the chance of winning is about 95%.

In 2008 Obama won every state in this category except South Carolina, which is something of a surprise -- for South Carolina.

In tan are states in which Obama has an approval rating between 40% and 44%, inclusively. At 42% approval the chance of winning is about 5%, at 43%, maybe 20%.  Of these states, Obama won only two -- Ohio and Indiana. He would probably win two of the states in this category -- most likely Ohio, but the other is about as likely Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, or Missouri. We may see a reversion toward the mean, with approval ratings coming down to Earth in some places and rising toward the mean where he was crushed in 2008.

Red? Approval below 40% or unknown and probably not very good. I adapted this map from somewhere else, and the only reasonable conclusion about these states is NO WAY.

Green appears for Nebraska, which splits its electoral votes. NE-03 is arguably the last electoral vote that could ever go for Barack Obama in 2012, a district so strongly Republican that it likely overpowers the rest of the state even if Obama wins two of the three districts. NE-01 votes much like Texas; NE-02 votes much like Indiana.



 

The patterns of approval for the President now look much like those of 2008. Add 5% to the approval rating in most states and one gets about how most states voted in 2008 except that Obama seems to do better in those states in which he did very badly.  

The political culture of most states seems much the same as within the period 1992-2008. This is 32 months before the 2012 election, before many of the events that define Presidential success or failure can have occurred, and of course before electoral campaigns are in the field and paid political ads are on the air.    

 
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J. J.
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« Reply #4034 on: March 04, 2010, 09:37:03 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% (+1)

Obama's "strongly approve" number is 26%,-1.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4035 on: March 04, 2010, 02:34:51 PM »

New Jersey (FDU)Sad

53% Approve
38% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 801 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from Feb. 23, 2010, through March 1, 2010, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/menendez1003/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4036 on: March 04, 2010, 02:37:32 PM »

Connecticut (Rasmussen)Sad

53% Approve
46% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 2, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/toplines/toplines_2010_connecticut_senate_march_2_2010

Kentucky (Rasmussen)Sad

37% Approve
59% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 3, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/toplines/toplines_2010_kentucky_senate_race_march_2_2010
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4037 on: March 04, 2010, 02:44:11 PM »

New Texas Rasmussen stuff will also be released later today at 5pm.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #4038 on: March 04, 2010, 05:53:38 PM »

Texas (Rassmussen)
29% approve
62% disapprove
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/election_2010_texas_governor
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #4039 on: March 04, 2010, 06:07:32 PM »


...Lowest approval in the nation? Doubt it...
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Oakvale
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« Reply #4040 on: March 04, 2010, 06:12:55 PM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4041 on: March 04, 2010, 06:48:34 PM »

First March polls (letter C). The Texas poll is EGFP, which is not to be used:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Surprisingly good for Obama. Still a February poll.

Maine, Mississippi, Montana, and West Virginia polls would be extremely welcome.


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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #4042 on: March 04, 2010, 07:09:01 PM »

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

    * Strongly approve 27% {25%} [27%] (29%)
    * Somewhat approve 9% {16%} [14%] (15%)
    * Somewhat disapprove 8% {7%} [10%] (8%)
    * Strongly disapprove 55% {50%} [48%] (46%)

Appears to be 36/63 to me
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Devilman88
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« Reply #4043 on: March 04, 2010, 07:20:21 PM »

First March polls (letter C). The Texas poll is EGFP, which is not to be used:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Surprisingly good for Obama. Still a February poll.

Maine, Mississippi, Montana, and West Virginia polls would be extremely welcome.




Texas isn't a EGFP poll...
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Franzl
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« Reply #4044 on: March 04, 2010, 07:23:45 PM »

Devilman...pbrower knows that. What he meant to say was: "This poll shows a result I disapprove of, and that's why I don't wish to include it."
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4045 on: March 04, 2010, 08:14:46 PM »

This is the issue measured:

Twenty-nine percent (29%) think President Obama is doing a good or excellent job handling health care reform. Sixty-two percent (62%) rate his performance in this area as poor.
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Rowan
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« Reply #4046 on: March 04, 2010, 08:20:27 PM »

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted March 3, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

27% Strongly approve

9% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

55% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure
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Smid
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« Reply #4047 on: March 04, 2010, 08:22:43 PM »

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted March 3, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

27% Strongly approve

9% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

55% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure

When will your next map be up?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4048 on: March 04, 2010, 08:45:19 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2010, 12:34:15 PM by pbrower2a »

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted March 3, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

27% Strongly approve

9% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

55% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure



Not so screwy -- must be premium data. Texas checks in, and it is not a one-issue or EGFP poll.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

As for Texas -- it has perhaps the greatest "jumpiness" in approval polls even with the same pollster. Considering that the state isn't in a well-defined region of the US, and isn't even a region to itself, and is so huge and diverse (the state straddles regions), a 500-person sample might be wholly inadequate for a reliable poll. The only other states with any semblance of such regional division are perhaps Missouri and Virginia because they straddle the North and South... and for them, 500-person samples are enough.

The gubernatorial race is tightening. Draw your own conclusions on how that will affect Texas politics in 2010 and 2012. President Obama will not win Texas except in a 35-state landslide and about 450 electoral votes at the least, Texas accounting for roughly 35 of them. 

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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #4049 on: March 04, 2010, 09:45:52 PM »

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted March 3, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

27% Strongly approve

9% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

55% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure

When will your next map be up?

I've been real busy lately. Hopefully sometime this weekend I'll have it updated.
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