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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022420 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #4325 on: March 27, 2010, 08:26:58 pm »

The Gallup poll was the daily, showing a six point shift, overall, for the last two days.

The only thing "obsolete" is the belief that Obamacare would greatly help boost Obama's overall approval numbers.  It does look like it it did help rally his base, on Rasmussen.  It did not show a major boost in the overall approve/disapprove numbers.  Gallup is showing no major boost and no real change in disapproval.  Take the Gallup numbers for what you will, but they as heck are not obsolete.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4326 on: March 28, 2010, 12:31:49 am »

New Mexico (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Mexico was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, March 24, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_mexico/toplines/toplines_new_mexico_governor_march_24_2010
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change08
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« Reply #4327 on: March 28, 2010, 06:39:15 am »

New Mexico (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Mexico was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, March 24, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_mexico/toplines/toplines_new_mexico_governor_march_24_2010

Not bad. Not much down from the actual 2008 numbers. It was +2 Obama in 2008, now it's +5 according to Rasmussen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4328 on: March 28, 2010, 08:31:01 am »

New Mexico, a state that the Democrats haven't lost in a win since 1976:



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Far more significant as a statewide poll than the either of those in  Hawaii or North Dakota. It's almost a ten-pint swing from February, and likely a full ten from mid-March.
Unless activity in statewide polling slows, I expect a lot of states in white or sand to go green, and those in pale shades of green to go to deeper green.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4329 on: March 28, 2010, 11:29:55 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53%

(Both unchanged)


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

The "Strongly Approve" number is -4 of the post Obamacare high, but still within the MOE, and still shows a bounce from the 23%-26% numbers prior to that.  "Strongly Disapprove," while still within the MOE, is tied for the highest number ever.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4330 on: March 28, 2010, 11:42:51 am »

The latest from Polling Report

Washington Post


    Approve      Disapprove    Approve
                                                         minus         
          %                   %          Disapprove         
 
            53                  43               10         

3/23-26/10
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #4331 on: March 28, 2010, 12:15:48 pm »

Gallup's latest today

46% approve
46% disapprove
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #4332 on: March 28, 2010, 01:07:27 pm »

Tender Branson, that goes for you too. Don't post links that make the page horrendously wide.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4333 on: March 28, 2010, 02:47:29 pm »

Gallup's latest today

46% approve
46% disapprove

It could be a really bad sample, or Gallup is just goofy. 
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Rowan
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« Reply #4334 on: March 28, 2010, 02:54:45 pm »

Tender Branson, that goes for you too. Don't post links that make the page horrendously wide.

It doesn't show up wide if you use FireFox.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4335 on: March 28, 2010, 03:12:04 pm »

Tender Branson, that goes for you too. Don't post links that make the page horrendously wide.

It doesn't show up wide if you use FireFox.

I'm on FireFox and he's right.  It is two lines, the second one beginning "/new_mexico."
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #4336 on: March 28, 2010, 03:18:32 pm »

Tender Branson, that goes for you too. Don't post links that make the page horrendously wide.

It doesn't show up wide if you use FireFox.

Well, yeah, I know, but that doesn't change my point.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4337 on: March 28, 2010, 05:18:44 pm »

Tender Branson, that goes for you too. Don't post links that make the page horrendously wide.

It doesn't show up wide if you use FireFox.

Well, yeah, I know, but that doesn't change my point.

How can someone tell it's "too long" if it isn't on their screen?
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Lunar
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« Reply #4338 on: March 28, 2010, 05:22:19 pm »

um, it's REALLY easy to tell what a really long link is.

If it's questionable, all you have to do is go"
Code:
[url=reallyLongLinkButI'mNotSureIfIt'sTooLongOfALinkMaybeIWillThinkAboutIt]SOURCE[/url]

If it's a grey zone area, why risk screw up everyone else's viewing experience?

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J. J.
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« Reply #4339 on: March 28, 2010, 05:25:16 pm »

um, it's REALLY easy to tell what a really long link is.

If it's questionable, all you have to do is go"
Code:
[url=reallyLongLinkButI'mNotSureIfIt'sTooLongOfALinkMaybeIWillThinkAboutIt]SOURCE[/url]

If it's a grey zone area, why risk screw up everyone else's viewing experience?



Okay, but that grey zone is some sort of measure.
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Lunar
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« Reply #4340 on: March 28, 2010, 05:29:13 pm »
« Edited: March 29, 2010, 05:58:39 am by Lunar »

It's not scientific dude.  I'm sure you could research the exact amount of characters it takes to screw up the tables for 51% of forum members here, but are people going to count characters in their links?  

How about, if it's a long link, you use the URL code to shorten it so people's tables don't potentially get ruined?  If it's borderline, it's not a big deal either way because the worst case scenario is that you only screw up the tables slightly.  

Why are you trying to overthink this?
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Lunar
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« Reply #4341 on: March 28, 2010, 05:36:08 pm »

okay, here's a compromise:

Rasmussen links ALWAYS destroy the tables.  Shorten them. 

Ignore everything else.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4342 on: March 28, 2010, 06:30:24 pm »

It's not scientific dude.  I'm sure you could research the exact amount of characters it takes to screw up the tables for 51% of forum members here, but are people going to count characters in their links?  

How about, if it's a long link, you use the URL code to shorten it so people's tables don't POTENTIALLY get ruined.  If you have no concept of the difference between a long link and a short link in your own mind, I'm not sure what I can do for you.  If it's borderline, it's not a big deal either way because the worst case scenario is that you only screw up the tables slightly.  

There is NO drawback to shortening your link, there's no negative consequences or blowback, I don't see why some sort of decision calculus needs to exist here, sheesh.

Why are you trying to overthink this?

I'm not trying "overthink" this.  Those of us who use Firefox don't have the problem, so we can't know.
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Lunar
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« Reply #4343 on: March 28, 2010, 06:52:39 pm »
« Edited: March 28, 2010, 07:11:34 pm by Lunar »

Rasmussen = too long.

That's all you gotta know in most cases.  

Rasmussen links are the only ones I've had to edit in the forum I moderate.


edit: I didn't really realize that this was so defined by browsers, I thought it was defined by screen resolution and window size (and perhaps the forum's code).  Perhaps I was way too antagonistic, and I'm sorry.  I love Chrome and Chrome is my baby, but when I used the same window in Firefox, it didn't have its tables screwed up.

But even in Firefox, the URL runs 3-4 lines long, it's pretty obviously a long URL.  Like, it's not hard to understand that when it runs the second and third line for you, for the rest of everyone else, it just pushes the tables rightward and screws up the entire readability of the page, right?  It's not like FireFox converts the URL into magic pixie dust.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4344 on: March 28, 2010, 10:06:24 pm »

Lunar, I think your comments are valid, but please keep in mind that some of us, like me, literally cannot see the problem.  I understand that you are not able to look over my shoulder and see my screen.  Smiley   That is why I was asking you explain and give some parameters.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4345 on: March 29, 2010, 10:10:52 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 52% -1




"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, unchanged.

It looks like Obamacare did rally the base, but the "Strongly Disapproved" is still tied for a record high.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4346 on: March 29, 2010, 12:43:56 pm »

Quote
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Rhode Island, 61-39



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

No surprise, and hard to see.

New Mexico is the only state polled that was interesting.

What I'd like to see polled:

Fringe of Republican contention: IA, MN, NH, PA, WI (NM has been polled and was in this category)

Genuine swing states: CO, FL, OH, VA

Fringe of Democratic contention: AZ, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, NE-02

Can't figure them out: NV, SC, TN

Long time, no poll: ME, MS, WV

Only due to size: CA, NY, TX

 
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J. J.
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« Reply #4347 on: March 29, 2010, 02:37:02 pm »

Gallup is less goofy today:

48%  Approve (+2)

46% Disapprove (u)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4348 on: March 29, 2010, 03:23:58 pm »

Daily Kos/Research 2000 Wisconsin Poll

Daily Kos/Research 2000 Wisconsin Poll
Research 2000, MoE 4%, Mar 22, 2010 - Mar 24, 2010
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE
     VERY FAV    FAV    UNFAV    VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

                        VF     F      U     VU    DK

FEINGOLD   16   37   23   18   6
THOMPSON   19   34   24   18   5
WALL           15   22   17   15   31
WESTLAKE   14   17   15   15   39
KOHL           17   38   21   17   7
DOYLE           15   29   26   24   6
OBAMA           24   30   21   20   5

With the rationale that passage of the HCR legislation has ensured that people who dislike his policies or consider him inadequate still like him, I propose that we now consider favorability  practically identical to approval. It's hard to see how people can have a divide between liking him and thinking him "effective with good results".

Wisconsin would go for the Republican nominee if the Republican won about 52% of the vote; it barely went for Kerry in 2004.   

With the favorability poll just shown we have this:




but without it we have this:



The same key applies to both maps.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

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xavier110
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« Reply #4349 on: March 29, 2010, 03:29:18 pm »

LMAO.............
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