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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1009764 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #4375 on: March 31, 2010, 05:53:00 pm »


Right. Most of America doesn't rely upon farming, ranching, logging, and mining. Idaho has no giant cities. Few minorities?

Sarah Palin country, her "Real America" to a tee.
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Rowan
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« Reply #4376 on: March 31, 2010, 05:57:53 pm »

Pbrower, I know facts are not your strong suit, but Obama got 36% in Idaho in 2008. So your comment that he would be lucky to get 30% is just absurd, not like that's any different than most of the stuff you post anyway.
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Zarn
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« Reply #4377 on: March 31, 2010, 06:00:49 pm »


Right. Most of America doesn't rely upon farming, ranching, logging, and mining. Idaho has no giant cities. Few minorities?

Sarah Palin country, her "Real America" to a tee.

I question why you would have to throw something in about minorities in there.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4378 on: March 31, 2010, 06:13:08 pm »


Right. Most of America doesn't rely upon farming, ranching, logging, and mining. Idaho has no giant cities. Few minorities?

Sarah Palin country, her "Real America" to a tee.

I question why you would have to throw something in about minorities in there.

Most nonwhite citizens don't vote Republican?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4379 on: March 31, 2010, 07:03:33 pm »


Right. Most of America doesn't rely upon farming, ranching, logging, and mining. Idaho has no giant cities. Few minorities?

Sarah Palin country, her "Real America" to a tee.

I question why you would have to throw something in about minorities in there.

Because it makes the difference between Idaho, a sure state for Republicans, and Colorado, a genuine swing state.
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Badger
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« Reply #4380 on: March 31, 2010, 07:06:48 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%

Disapprove 53% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, unchanged.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.



Its just going to get worse for Obama.

Oh wow, you can see the future? Can you tell me next week's lottery numbers?

Go ahead and keep thinking the economy is not going to COLLAPSE. Go ahead with your bad self. We shall see.

It already did just prior to his taking office. Now we're in recovery. The only question is whether jobs will follow quick enough for the Democrats to retain the House in November.

What makes you think it won't happen again?

Because since the 20's Democratic presidents have universally had higher rates of job growth than every Republican president. Even Carter was better than Eisenhower in this regard. Also, I find no reason grounded in reality to buy into the right wing chicken littles who instinctively believe that the moderate improvement on the social safety net and deficit cutting measuer that health care reform entails is going to destroy the American economy.
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Zarn
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« Reply #4381 on: March 31, 2010, 07:56:57 pm »


Right. Most of America doesn't rely upon farming, ranching, logging, and mining. Idaho has no giant cities. Few minorities?

Sarah Palin country, her "Real America" to a tee.

I question why you would have to throw something in about minorities in there.

Because it makes the difference between Idaho, a sure state for Republicans, and Colorado, a genuine swing state.

Right, but you made reference to 'Real America.'
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4382 on: March 31, 2010, 09:52:04 pm »

I'm actually working on an approval release myself right now (in addition with state polling stuff).

However, I work on spreadsheet, not maps, so don't expect anything fancy for me.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4383 on: March 31, 2010, 11:08:41 pm »


Right. Most of America doesn't rely upon farming, ranching, logging, and mining. Idaho has no giant cities. Few minorities?

Sarah Palin country, her "Real America" to a tee.

I question why you would have to throw something in about minorities in there.

Because it makes the difference between Idaho, a sure state for Republicans, and Colorado, a genuine swing state.

Right, but you made reference to 'Real America.'

For her "Real America" seemed to have meant "rural America" and "small-town America" as opposed to urban and suburban America. She appeared in places like rural Ohio and praised "the Real Ohio", meaning in essence places without traffic jams. The problem with that divide is that most Americans live in urban and suburban America, where government services are costly. So if you use Ohio, most of the land is farmland, but most of the people live in small areas within the state -- greater Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati....

If you think that it is merely a regional divide, then think again.  Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, New Orleans, Memphis, Louisville, Nashville, and Birmingham (Alabama) don't count as the "Real America", either. 

What she thought "the Real America" seemed to vote for her. The not-so-real America voted against her.
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Zarn
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« Reply #4384 on: April 01, 2010, 12:20:19 am »


Right. Most of America doesn't rely upon farming, ranching, logging, and mining. Idaho has no giant cities. Few minorities?

Sarah Palin country, her "Real America" to a tee.

I question why you would have to throw something in about minorities in there.

Because it makes the difference between Idaho, a sure state for Republicans, and Colorado, a genuine swing state.

Right, but you made reference to 'Real America.'

For her "Real America" seemed to have meant "rural America" and "small-town America" as opposed to urban and suburban America. She appeared in places like rural Ohio and praised "the Real Ohio", meaning in essence places without traffic jams. The problem with that divide is that most Americans live in urban and suburban America, where government services are costly. So if you use Ohio, most of the land is farmland, but most of the people live in small areas within the state -- greater Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati....

If you think that it is merely a regional divide, then think again.  Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, New Orleans, Memphis, Louisville, Nashville, and Birmingham (Alabama) don't count as the "Real America", either. 

What she thought "the Real America" seemed to vote for her. The not-so-real America voted against her.

That's not what I was talking about.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4385 on: April 01, 2010, 12:45:41 am »

Alabama (PPP)Sad

42% Approve
55% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,270 Alabama voters from March 27th to 29th. The margin of error for
the survey is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting,
may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AL_331.pdf

New York (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New York was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 29, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

Ohio (Quinnipiac)Sad

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

From March 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,526 registered Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1440

Seattle-Tacoma (SurveyUSA)Sad

56% Approve
38% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cdbe826a-14ce-4b24-9175-5557c245f084
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xavier110
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« Reply #4386 on: April 01, 2010, 12:56:04 am »

Alabama (PPP)Sad

42% Approve
55% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,270 Alabama voters from March 27th to 29th. The margin of error for
the survey is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting,
may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AL_331.pdf

New York (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New York was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 29, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link



LOL
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4387 on: April 01, 2010, 09:17:10 am »
« Edited: April 01, 2010, 11:15:50 am by pbrower2a »

I checked the link and didn't see the 42/57 split on Alabama. I know what day it is! Scott Rasmussen, so far as I can tell, does not play April Fools' Day jokes with polling, and he gives a 36-61 split for Arkansas.

New York and Ohio also check in:

Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



Approval only:



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.


Ignoring all polls from before March 22, 2010 we now have only seven data ten data points. Can we interpret statewide polls, six of approval and one of favorability. Hawaii is off the chart for approval and Rhode Island is nearly so; the Dakotas and Missouri are in the lower-middle 40s in approval, New Mexico and New York are in the lower fifties for approval. Wisconsin just showed 54% favorability, so even if one knocks that one down three points, it is still in the low fifties. The new one is Idaho, off the chart for disapproval of the President suggests that President Obama would be lucky to get 30% of the vote there. Ohio looks like it would be a bare win for the President, and Arkansas is an unmitigated disaster for him.




(The one for Alabama would be medium-blue if I accepted it).



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  43
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  10
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  18
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  14
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 10  


The 54% approval in New York translates to about a 56% vote; the 48% approval in Ohio is good enough for a bare win of the state -- probably 50-52%. 36% approval in Arkansas suggests that he could at most get about 40% of the vote there.

It's beginning to look much like November 2008 again with Missouri, New Mexico, and Ohio  where they were then.
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change08
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« Reply #4388 on: April 01, 2010, 09:27:01 am »


What was the 2008 margin?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4389 on: April 01, 2010, 12:25:36 pm »

Rasmussen has no poll involving the President in Ohio, but it does have the Governor's race tightening. Quinnipiac gives the Democrats the lead in the race for the open US Senate seat that Senator Voinovich will retire from.

Hint: the Republican nominee for President will likely have to win Ohio fair and square in 2012, making things more difficult than they were in 2004. So far, the Republicans have never been able to win the Presidency without winning Ohio -- going with every Republican Presidential win since Abraham Lincoln in 1860.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4390 on: April 01, 2010, 12:48:37 pm »

I checked the link and didn't see the 42/57 split on Alabama. I know what day it is!

Im not joking. They somehow included the overall Obama approvals in the primary numbers.

But today they also released the 42-57 numbers in their Senate release:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AL_401.pdf
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Rowan
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« Reply #4391 on: April 01, 2010, 12:53:10 pm »

We're getting Wyoming numbers later from Rasmussen. I think that's the first poll there.
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change08
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« Reply #4392 on: April 01, 2010, 01:06:14 pm »

We're getting Wyoming numbers later from Rasmussen. I think that's the first poll there.

If Obama's not got atleast 55% approval there, then i'll eat my hat.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4393 on: April 01, 2010, 01:08:22 pm »

We're getting Wyoming numbers later from Rasmussen. I think that's the first poll there.

And Alabama.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4394 on: April 01, 2010, 01:18:15 pm »

Rasmussen has no poll involving the President in Ohio, but it does have the Governor's race tightening. Quinnipiac gives the Democrats the lead in the race for the open US Senate seat that Senator Voinovich will retire from.

Rasmussen probably has Obama in positive territory in Ohio, that`s why they removed his numbers from the release (contrary to any other release).

Obama having positive numbers in a swing state ? At Rasmussen ? REMOVE, before anyone notices ... Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #4395 on: April 01, 2010, 01:44:22 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% +1

Disapprove 53% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, unchanged.


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J. J.
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« Reply #4396 on: April 01, 2010, 01:45:44 pm »

50% (u), 42% (-1), on Gallup.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4397 on: April 01, 2010, 02:21:22 pm »

Rasmussen has the same numbers like PPP for Alabama:

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alabama was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 29, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link
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xavier110
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« Reply #4398 on: April 01, 2010, 02:39:41 pm »

Rasmussen has the same numbers like PPP for Alabama:

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alabama was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 29, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

So he has better approval ratings in AL than he does in IN, says Rasmussen. Makes sense!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4399 on: April 01, 2010, 02:55:46 pm »

Instead of conspiracies, I'd expect to see approvals in the Senate numbers.
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