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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1009573 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #4400 on: April 01, 2010, 03:04:54 pm »
« edited: April 01, 2010, 03:50:49 pm by pbrower2a »

ALABAMA

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
8% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

It's Rasmussen, who doesn't do April Fools' jokes. Alabama was one of the strongest states for John McCain in 2008, and apparently a Senate seat is no sure hold for the Republicans. If Alabama should be a close vote for President in 2012, then the GOP is in trouble as deep as some of the valleys of northern Alabama:

Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



Approval only:



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.


Ignoring all polls from before March 22, 2010 we now] have  ten eleven data points. Can we interpret statewide polls, six of approval and one of favorability. Hawaii is off the chart for approval and Rhode Island is nearly so; the Dakotas and Missouri are in the lower-middle 40s in approval, New Mexico and New York are in the lower fifties for approval. Wisconsin just showed 54% favorability, so even if one knocks that one down three points, it is still in the low fifties. The new one is Idaho, off the chart for disapproval of the President suggests that President Obama would be lucky to get 30% of the vote there. Ohio looks like it would be a bare win for the President, and Arkansas is an unmitigated disaster for him.

Add 4 to 5 for any approval poll in the low 40s, and you now get Alabama as simply "solid GOP".

  








deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  43
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  10
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  18
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  14
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 10  


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4401 on: April 01, 2010, 03:25:49 pm »

Rasmussen has the same numbers like PPP for Alabama:

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alabama was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 29, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

So he has better approval ratings in AL than he does in IN, says Rasmussen. Makes sense!

The surprise is Alabama. It could be the strip club scandal involving the Republican Party. So far, President Obama is more squeaky-clean and competent than Michael Steele. Alabama has lots of fundamentalist and evangelical Christians who resent rich people going to sexually-loaded entertainment where they get drunk while dropping lots of money. That might not last.

Indiana is about 2% more Republican than Ohio, so it is probably "too close to call". The Indiana poll came at the nastiest point of the HCR debate, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out with 44% or 45% approval for President Obama. Much the same can be said of any polls that came out in mid-March. That's why I have asterisks on polls that end after March 22, 2010.

We now have eleven statewide polls of approval or favorability (the question is the same) , reasonably scattered across the country. Alabama shows up strongly because of two polls that say much the same.

Michael Steele must go!

These would be interesting:

"Long time, no see": ME, MS, MT, UT, WV, WY, NE-02

(Alabama was in that category)

fringe swing states in clear Republican wins: IA, MN, NH, PA

(Wisconsin was in that category)

legitimate swing states: CO, FL, NV, VA  

(Ohio was in that category)

fringe swing states in Democratic wins

AZ, GA, IN, NC, SC

(Missouri was in that category)

Simply large:

CA, IL, MI, NJ, TX  

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4402 on: April 01, 2010, 05:04:21 pm »

Rasmussen has the same numbers like PPP for Alabama:

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alabama was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 29, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

Err, wow...
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4403 on: April 02, 2010, 07:36:06 am »

Alabama was one of the strongest states for John McCain in 2008, and apparently a Senate seat is no sure hold for the Republicans.

This would be the point where you say "APRIL FOOLS" and we all have a good laugh.

If not, then... I suppose we all still get a good laugh.
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« Reply #4404 on: April 02, 2010, 07:45:30 am »

Alabama was one of the strongest states for John McCain in 2008, and apparently a Senate seat is no sure hold for the Republicans.

This would be the point where you say "APRIL FOOLS" and we all have a good laugh.

If not, then... I suppose we all still get a good laugh.

This was the guy in previous months seriously arguing that DeMint's 2012 prospects are seriously dampened by his lack of certainty for reelection
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J. J.
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« Reply #4405 on: April 02, 2010, 08:39:28 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% -1

Disapprove 53% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.


Basically, Obamacare slightly improved Obama's approval numbers and did boost his "Strongly Approve" numbers.  It rallied the base.
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« Reply #4406 on: April 02, 2010, 09:21:15 am »

Alabama was one of the strongest states for John McCain in 2008, and apparently a Senate seat is no sure hold for the Republicans.

This would be the point where you say "APRIL FOOLS" and we all have a good laugh.

If not, then... I suppose we all still get a good laugh.

This was the guy in previous months seriously arguing that DeMint's 2012 prospects are seriously dampened by his lack of certainty for reelection

HOWARD DEAN CHANGED EVERYTHING
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4407 on: April 02, 2010, 09:45:56 am »

We're getting Wyoming numbers later from Rasmussen. I think that's the first poll there.

No April Fool's joke there.

How conservative is Wyoming?

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Creepy!

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A little better for President Obama than is Idaho, but not much. But it is only 3 electoral votes.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4408 on: April 02, 2010, 10:00:25 am »

Cheney was the House Rep. there for many years, lest we forget.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4409 on: April 02, 2010, 10:02:31 am »

End of the alphabetical list of states  (Wyoming), following the beginning. One chance in 2450 for that to happen, in case you are so inclined to look at such things. March 25. so an asterisk. Long time, no see indeed!

Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



Approval only:



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Twelve states have checked in, and of these Alabama has two polls saying the same thing.  We can now add Wyoming. 




deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  43
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  10
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  18
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  14
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 13  



[/quote]
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4410 on: April 02, 2010, 10:19:38 am »

End of the alphabetical list of states  (Wyoming), following the beginning. One chance in 2450 for that to happen, in case you are so inclined to look at such things. March 25. so an asterisk. Long time, no see indeed!

Let no one say you lack a unique writing style. The non sequiturs could use some work, though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4411 on: April 02, 2010, 11:40:57 am »
« Edited: April 02, 2010, 02:45:42 pm by pbrower2a »

Arizona, 41-55, Daily Kos, Research2000

It reads as favorable/unfavorable; it acts as approve/disapprove. No politician ispopular in Arizona right now, so draw such conclusions as you wish. Even John McCain is below 50% approval, and Senator Kyl isn't much more popular than President Obama.

FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE

                                     VF    F   U      VF    DK
MCCAIN                          22   25   26   20   7
HAYWORTH                  11   23   21   21   24
BABBITT                          16   27   17   14   26
GIFFORDS                          11   21   14   10   44
GLASSMAN                   8   15   8   7   62
STOCKHOLM WALDEN   5   6   2   1   86
BREWER                          14   25   28   26   7
KYL                                  21   24   22   21   12
OBAMA                          19   22   27   28   4

Because non-Arizona politicians will be the Presidential and VP candidates for the Republican Party, even Obama could win this state in 2012.  Talk about a poisoned political environment!


Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Thirteen states have checked in, and of these Alabama has two polls saying the same thing.  We can now add Arizona.  




deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  43
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  10
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  18
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  14
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   20
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 13  



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4412 on: April 02, 2010, 11:57:43 am »

End of the alphabetical list of states  (Wyoming), following the beginning. One chance in 2450 for that to happen, in case you are so inclined to look at such things. March 25. so an asterisk. Long time, no see indeed!

Let no one say you lack a unique writing style. The non sequiturs could use some work, though.

50 x 49 = 2450. It's even more unlikely than that, as neither Alabama nor Wyoming gets polled often.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4413 on: April 02, 2010, 12:07:34 pm »

Instead of conspiracies, I'd expect to see approvals in the Senate numbers.

As predicted:

Approval 46%
Disapproval 53%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_senate_race_march_30_2010
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Dodger Blue
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« Reply #4414 on: April 02, 2010, 12:20:09 pm »


The question is, will those numbers hold?
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« Reply #4415 on: April 02, 2010, 01:00:49 pm »

End of the alphabetical list of states  (Wyoming), following the beginning. One chance in 2450 for that to happen, in case you are so inclined to look at such things. March 25. so an asterisk. Long time, no see indeed!

Let no one say you lack a unique writing style. The non sequiturs could use some work, though.

50 x 49 = 2450. It's even more unlikely than that, as neither Alabama nor Wyoming gets polled often.



I understand where you got 2450 from. But there's no use in assigning exact mathematical odds to something that is not left up to random chance. Rasmussen isn't picking state names out of a hat.

Hence why I called it a "non sequitur."
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J. J.
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« Reply #4416 on: April 03, 2010, 09:35:09 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% u

Disapprove 53% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.


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J. J.
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« Reply #4417 on: April 03, 2010, 03:20:16 pm »

Obama's numbers "Gallup" lower. Wink

Approve 48% -2

Disapprove 45% +2

In all seriousness, it looks like the standard "wobble."  His numbers have ranged Approve 46%-50%, Disapproved 43%-46%.

I didn't know Zogby owned Gallup?  Wink
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CJK
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« Reply #4418 on: April 03, 2010, 08:22:00 pm »

Obama approval for March 2010 (Gallup):

48% approve

44% disapprove

Trends for comparsion:

Carter: 49/36 (March 1978)

Reagan: 46/45 (March 1982)

Bush I: 71/17 (March 1990)

Clinton: 51/41 (March 1994)

Bush II: 79/16 (March 2002)
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4419 on: April 03, 2010, 10:23:36 pm »

Magellan Strategies Iowa

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Magellan-Iowa-General-Election-Survey-Release-0401102.pdf

42/50 approve/disapprove
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4420 on: April 03, 2010, 11:36:44 pm »


The kicker is on the last page:

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How else could anyone come up with a poll that suggests that President Obama is as unpopular in Iowa as he is in Alabama or Arizona, and less popular in Iowa than in Missouri?

REJECT!



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4421 on: April 04, 2010, 02:01:13 am »

California (USC/Los Angeles Times)Sad

58% Approve
34% Disapprove

64% Favorable
33% Unfavorable

The Los Angeles Times/USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences poll was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in conjunction with American Viewpoint, both based in Washington, D.C. The findings are based on a random sample survey of 1,515 registered voters in California conducted from March 23 to 30, 2010. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 1,515 registered voters is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-poll4-2010apr04,0,5948679.story
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4422 on: April 04, 2010, 02:05:29 am »

North Carolina (High Point University)Sad

48% Approve
44% Disapprove

The survey, which was conducted over a two-week period, polled 578 North Carolina residents and their views on several current political and public policy issues. The HPU Poll contacted a random digit dial (RDD) sample of households with landline telephones and was conducted on March 15-18, 20, and 22-26. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/USFMWF/slides
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4423 on: April 04, 2010, 02:13:45 am »

That High Point poll is no more credible than the Magellan poll.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4424 on: April 04, 2010, 02:17:06 am »

Illinois We Ask America poll

Obama: 47/50

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/03/11/il-approve-46-65-disapprove-49-54-unsure-3-81/

Michigan, Michigan Resource Group

Obama: 47/50

http://www.detnews.com/article/20100324/POLITICS03/3240428/1361/Obama--Granholm-get-negative-job-ratings-in-Michigan-poll
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