Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 15, 2019, 10:08:53 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 174 175 176 177 178 [179] 180 181 182 183 184 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015345 times)
Derek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,616
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4450 on: April 05, 2010, 11:02:32 am »

I saw 49% approve and 51% disapprove but that seems kinda good for him these days.  That was Rasmussen, it's the most conservative and most accurate. Something funny?
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,948
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4451 on: April 05, 2010, 11:16:40 am »

Iowa
42/50

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Magellan-Iowa-General-Election-Survey-Release-0401102.pdf

Magellan (R)
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,721
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4452 on: April 05, 2010, 11:48:09 am »

The horror scenario for Republicans concerning 2012 is taking shape.

It's 2 and a half years out. Don't jump the gun.

Understood, but you have to keep in mind the trends.  The economy is certainly trending towards recovery; especially in job creation.  This trend is not only prevalent right now during Obama's administration, but has been seen over many different Democratic administrations. 

Someone used to have a very useful graph of job creation during Republican and Democratic admins as their signature and I wish they still had it. 

Either way, the economy and job markets are most likely going to be at least somewhat  better in 2012 than when Obama took office.  If it's only meager improvement I could see a good GOP campaign stealing one... but I don't think we are going to see a gigantic rejection ala Jimmy Carter in 2012.   
Logged
DariusNJ
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 416


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4453 on: April 05, 2010, 11:52:38 am »
« Edited: April 05, 2010, 11:54:45 am by DariusNJ »

The horror scenario for Republicans concerning 2012 is taking shape.

Obama creates jobs and his poll numbers rise:

Fridayís report on job creation has provided a boost in both consumer and investor confidence. Confidence is now back to where it was when Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008. Since release of the employment data, the number of unaffiliated voters who Strongly Approve of the Presidentís performance has increased from 20% to 27%. Forty-five percent (45%) of unaffiliateds still Strongly Disapprove.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 34% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -7. These are the Presidentís best ratings since February 1.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Overall:

49% Approve (+3)
51% Disapprove (-2)

Also: Thx to all for the already 200.000 clicks on this topic ... Smiley

That's good news. I think we also have to give credit to the fact that he announced support for offshore drilling, which is wildly popular. (72% supported it in a Rasmussen poll on April 2)

 Not to mention that the health care debate is not in the news nearly as much.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,948
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4454 on: April 05, 2010, 11:54:30 am »

The horror scenario for Republicans concerning 2012 is taking shape.

It's 2 and a half years out. Don't jump the gun.

Understood, but you have to keep in mind the trends.  The economy is certainly trending towards recovery; especially in job creation.  This trend is not only prevalent right now during Obama's administration, but has been seen over many different Democratic administrations. 

Someone used to have a very useful graph of job creation during Republican and Democratic admins as their signature and I wish they still had it. 

Either way, the economy and job markets are most likely going to be at least somewhat  better in 2012 than when Obama took office.  If it's only meager improvement I could see a good GOP campaign stealing one... but I don't think we are going to see a gigantic rejection ala Jimmy Carter in 2012.   

True, but still Obama only gets good buzz from it if the media says he's done well jobs wise.
Logged
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4455 on: April 05, 2010, 12:45:14 pm »

Gallup shows no improvement: 48/46
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,655
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4456 on: April 05, 2010, 01:01:11 pm »

Nevada (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 31, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,432
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4457 on: April 05, 2010, 01:52:05 pm »
« Edited: April 05, 2010, 01:56:51 pm by pbrower2a »

Nevada, where Harry Reid is still in trouble:




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Sixteen states have checked in, and of these Alabama has two polls saying the same thing.


deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  88
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  10
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  33
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  20
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   20
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 13  
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4458 on: April 05, 2010, 02:21:22 pm »

The horror scenario for Republicans concerning 2012 is taking shape.



Actually, Obama is 48% (u), 46% (+1) on Gallup.

I really think that both of these are just bad samples.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,447
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4459 on: April 05, 2010, 03:23:13 pm »

Before we all start getting too excited about job creation, remember that a heck of a lot of jobs being "created" right now are for the U.S. Census Bureau, and will only last through July.
Logged
21st Century Independent
Full Member
***
Posts: 120


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4460 on: April 05, 2010, 03:45:13 pm »

Nevada (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 31, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

That's a big ouch. Especially considering his margin of victory in 08 in that state. That's a significant drop and well below the average.

Logged
21st Century Independent
Full Member
***
Posts: 120


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4461 on: April 05, 2010, 03:51:03 pm »

Before we all start getting too excited about job creation, remember that a heck of a lot of jobs being "created" right now are for the U.S. Census Bureau, and will only last through July.

I personally believe corporations are growing accustomed to the lesser amount of work staff still handling their workload while being paid overtime. These companies also have substantial cash on the side which they like very much and only helps the stock prices of these same entities.

This job recovery will be lethargic due to companies having gone through the mill and back during these last two painful years.

This will not be the usual recession ending, unemployement dropping, economy when things turn around. Unfortunately. I truly hope I am dead wrong about this. However, this is what I am seeing.

The DJIA's recovery has been based not on a turn around, but on the health of companies balance sheets and earnings reports. When a company has thinned it's staff out so much and rid itself of backed inventory, it is only natural that profits will resume if they are garnering at least the same amount of business. In other words, these companies kept subtracting their losses until there was profit.
Logged
DariusNJ
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 416


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4462 on: April 05, 2010, 04:28:11 pm »

Nevada (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 31, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Seems a few points too low, although I agree that he is below 50 in Nevada.
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,721
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4463 on: April 05, 2010, 04:33:49 pm »

I think Rasmussen is probably always going to be a few points skewed towards the Republicans in state polls. 
Logged
ConservativeIllini
Full Member
***
Posts: 104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4464 on: April 05, 2010, 04:40:30 pm »

That's because Rasmussen polls what its likely voter model, which always tends to skew Republican.  I'd say ~45% is right in Nevada, but what the hell do I know
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,432
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4465 on: April 05, 2010, 04:49:29 pm »

Nevada (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 31, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

That's a big ouch. Especially considering his margin of victory in 08 in that state. That's a significant drop and well below the average.



Nevada was a nailbiter until early November, when the effects of the failure of predatory lending and reckless speculation turned a close race into a blowout.

There's no quick cure for such economic circumstances.   
Logged
21st Century Independent
Full Member
***
Posts: 120


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4466 on: April 06, 2010, 12:28:54 am »

Nevada (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 31, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

I agree with no quick fix, but the people of Nevada feel otherwise with that polling result.

That's a big ouch. Especially considering his margin of victory in 08 in that state. That's a significant drop and well below the average.



Nevada was a nailbiter until early November, when the effects of the failure of predatory lending and reckless speculation turned a close race into a blowout.

There's no quick cure for such economic circumstances.   
Logged
21st Century Independent
Full Member
***
Posts: 120


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4467 on: April 06, 2010, 12:29:56 am »

I think Rasmussen is probably always going to be a few points skewed towards the Republicans in state polls. 

Not really. Rasmussen is one of the most accurate pollsters out there.
Logged
Sasquatch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,077


Political Matrix
E: -8.13, S: -8.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4468 on: April 06, 2010, 04:51:31 am »

I think Rasmussen is probably always going to be a few points skewed towards the Republicans in state polls. 

Not really. Rasmussen is one of the most accurate pollsters out there.
Rasmussen was spot on in 2004. Had all the states and even the margins right.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4469 on: April 06, 2010, 08:39:56 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% -1

Disapprove 51% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.



Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,655


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4470 on: April 06, 2010, 09:28:37 am »

FYI about Rasmussen:

He had about a 2% GOP bias, on the whole, in his state polls in 2006 and 2008 (I need to recheck 2008, but I'm pretty sure that's right).  2000 (which most people don't remember) and 2004, his state polls were dead-on.  In 2000, this occurred even though his national poll was, well,... we remember.

Funny thing about 2006 is that his polls had less GOP bias in the end than SUSA, and definitely less than Mason-Dixon.  This is one of the reasons, btw, why I consider 2006 to be a wave election and not 2008.

Anyway, I think it's up to him to show that his polls don't just have a continual GOP bias and that 2006 and 2008 were not signs of a trend (i.e. show to me that 2006 was a wave election oddity and that 2008 was just because his weightings weren't right).  We'll see.

Right now, I am loathe to do this because a composite view of his state numbers matches his national numbers.  That being said, even if I include a 2% GOP bias, the state polls are still not very pretty.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,432
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4471 on: April 06, 2010, 09:46:20 am »
« Edited: April 06, 2010, 02:10:57 pm by pbrower2a »

Kentucky

Obama --

Approve 38%
Disapprove 62%

Rasmussen, March 31: "Likely voters". Definitely no swing state except in an Obama landslide Rasmussen seems to be showing few polls for genuine swing states.

First two April polls -- letter D, and no asterisk, both from PPP.

Illinois (PPP):

50% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. The Democratic candidates for US Senate have trouble.


Pennsylvania (PPP). Swing state if the Democrats are in trouble:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.







Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Wisconsin only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

Nineteen states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House, and of these Alabama has two polls saying the same thing.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  88
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  30
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  53
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  20
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   20
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 21  
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4472 on: April 06, 2010, 01:41:33 pm »

Gallup Obama

Approve: 49% +1

Disapprove: 46% (u)
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,432
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4473 on: April 06, 2010, 04:17:22 pm »
« Edited: April 06, 2010, 04:20:42 pm by pbrower2a »

Isn't it remarkable that Rasmussen has shown few polls with Obama with approval over 50%? Read between the lines on Alabama and the Dakotas. He did show Hawaii and Rhode Island as extreme outliers for America as a whole.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Rasmussen polls from  Utah, Louisiana, Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia at any moment.  


Michigan? Oregon? Washington? Minnesota? Massachusetts? Maine? New Hampshire? Hmmm.

I wonder about Georgia, Florida, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia, Montana, and Colorado.


... Does anyone have any problems if I remove the recordings of the most recent polls in Montana and Utah? Those are the last 2009 polls on the map. Spring housekeeping, so to speak.
Logged
ConservativeIllini
Full Member
***
Posts: 104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4474 on: April 06, 2010, 04:55:08 pm »

Yea, I'd say get rid of any 2009 polls for sure.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 174 175 176 177 178 [179] 180 181 182 183 184 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC