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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022498 times)
Iosif
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« Reply #4525 on: April 13, 2010, 11:21:40 am »

Rasmussen has Obama at 49-50 today.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4526 on: April 13, 2010, 09:24:28 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +1

Disapprove 50% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4527 on: April 13, 2010, 09:33:49 pm »




Gallup Obama

Approve: 46% +1

Disapprove: 46% -2

Bad sample dropping off?

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J. J.
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« Reply #4528 on: April 14, 2010, 09:36:45 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50% +1

Disapprove 49% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


This is the first time Obama's positive number were ahead of his negative since 2/3/10.

It could be a bad sample.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4529 on: April 14, 2010, 10:02:05 am »




Gallup Obama

Approve: 46% +1

Disapprove: 46% -2

Bad sample dropping off?




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50% +1

Disapprove 49% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


This is the first time Obama's positive number were ahead of his negative since 2/3/10.

It could be a bad sample.


If good, it will show up in statewide samples. More attention has gone to foreign policy, the stronger area of Obama's Presidency. 

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change08
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« Reply #4530 on: April 14, 2010, 10:03:19 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50% +1

Disapprove 49% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


This is the first time Obama's positive number were ahead of his negative since 2/3/10.

It could be a bad sample.

Rass has had Obama up for the past few days. A trend possibly?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4531 on: April 14, 2010, 10:12:32 am »
« Edited: April 14, 2010, 11:57:26 am by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania, Rasmussen, 4-12-2010

Nothing changes with this poll.


1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly
approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been

doing?

29% Strongly approve

17% Somewhat approve

12% Somewhat disapprove

42% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure

California, April 12

California State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports



1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

37% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
35% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

Letter change, only




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter California, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll

28 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  4
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  69
white                        too close to call  13
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   55
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 21  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.







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J. J.
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« Reply #4532 on: April 14, 2010, 11:24:41 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50% +1

Disapprove 49% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 32%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


This is the first time Obama's positive number were ahead of his negative since 2/3/10.

It could be a bad sample.

Rass has had Obama up for the past few days. A trend possibly?

Only the past three days, including today.  One sample will drop off tomorrow.  If it hold for 4-5 days, you are looking at a potential trend.
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Iosif
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« Reply #4533 on: April 14, 2010, 12:22:08 pm »

Rasmussen is compensating for having Obama in positive approval but having him 44-42 behind 'Tea Party' and only one up on Ron Paul.

Gallup

Approve 49 (+3)
Disapprove 45 (-1)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4534 on: April 14, 2010, 01:09:27 pm »

Rasmussen methodology:

Quote
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It could be more applicable to 2010 than to 2008 -- or 2012. Apparently, Scott Rasmussen assumes that Republicans are more likely to vote.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4535 on: April 15, 2010, 12:22:44 am »

Pennsylvania (Susquehanna)Sad

42% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide poll was conducted April 7-12 with 700 likely general election voters for Premium Access Members and general distribution purposes. The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level, but 6.1% for the sub sample of 254 Republicans and 4.9% for the sub sample of 400 Democrats (which includes an oversample).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/29914043/April-2010-Susquehanna-Research-Poll
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4536 on: April 15, 2010, 01:21:20 am »

Pennsylvania (Susquehanna)Sad

42% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide poll was conducted April 7-12 with 700 likely general election voters for Premium Access Members and general distribution purposes. The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level, but 6.1% for the sub sample of 254 Republicans and 4.9% for the sub sample of 400 Democrats (which includes an oversample).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/29914043/April-2010-Susquehanna-Research-Poll

I can't use it: pollster entirely for Republican and "conservative" interests.
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King
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« Reply #4537 on: April 15, 2010, 02:04:08 am »

Pennsylvania (Susquehanna)Sad

42% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide poll was conducted April 7-12 with 700 likely general election voters for Premium Access Members and general distribution purposes. The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level, but 6.1% for the sub sample of 254 Republicans and 4.9% for the sub sample of 400 Democrats (which includes an oversample).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/29914043/April-2010-Susquehanna-Research-Poll

I can't use it: pollster entirely for Republican and "conservative" interests.

Use me, pbrower.  Use me.  I'm not too conservative to satisfy your sexual fantasies, baby.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4538 on: April 15, 2010, 08:37:12 am »

Pennsylvania (Susquehanna)Sad

42% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide poll was conducted April 7-12 with 700 likely general election voters for Premium Access Members and general distribution purposes. The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level, but 6.1% for the sub sample of 254 Republicans and 4.9% for the sub sample of 400 Democrats (which includes an oversample).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/29914043/April-2010-Susquehanna-Research-Poll

I can't use it: pollster entirely for Republican and "conservative" interests.

They do business with Republican candidates and not Democrats, but they also do work with non-partisan clients: the American Lung Association, ABC27 News, and the Pittsburgh Tribune Review Newspaper to name three.

Not saying you should use it, but it's not an exclusively Republican pollster.
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King
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« Reply #4539 on: April 15, 2010, 10:29:28 am »

Sure, pbrower, ignore my advances. I'll play rough.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4540 on: April 15, 2010, 01:08:35 pm »

New York (Quinnipiac)Sad

62% Approve
33% Disapprove

From April 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,381 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 411 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1443
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4541 on: April 15, 2010, 01:35:59 pm »

SUSA - look at website for details

CA - 55% A, 40% D
KS - 34% A, 62% D
OR - 47% A, 48% D
WA - 51% A, 45% D
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J. J.
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« Reply #4542 on: April 15, 2010, 01:47:40 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% -2

Disapprove 51% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

Probably a bad sample dropping out.

Gallup is unchanged at 49/45.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4543 on: April 15, 2010, 01:56:28 pm »
« Edited: April 15, 2010, 02:15:14 pm by pbrower2a »


SurveyUSA polls added. CA shows an average with a Rasmussen poll -- no change. Others change nothing except as an update: 




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Georgia and Michigan only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll

31 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  16
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  76
white                        too close to call  13
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   55
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 33  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.








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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4544 on: April 15, 2010, 01:58:59 pm »

SurveyUSA polls -- I checked and I saw only obsolete polls (mid-March).

WA:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bd5ed44a-5502-47e4-923b-7f933b1700be

OR:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0b54b35a-c0fb-491e-84b1-109fa0a31f0e

KS:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cb9dc9bb-12d3-4a09-a8f0-02c8f8714f8f

CA:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5f22fad2-4f28-4fa7-8060-56b1373628e3

All done between April 9 and 11.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4545 on: April 16, 2010, 09:10:11 am »
« Edited: April 16, 2010, 03:06:23 pm by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% +1

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.


Just a bad sample dropping off.

(Fixed.  I transposed the numbers.)
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Edu
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« Reply #4546 on: April 16, 2010, 09:14:36 am »

Wasn't he 48 - 51 yesterday? or did you make a typo?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4547 on: April 16, 2010, 09:31:32 am »


Colorado

Colorado Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted April 14, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports



1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

33% Strongly approve
11% Somewhat approve
5% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
0% Not sure


Utah again, in case you missed it after I accidentally erased it

Utah State Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

Conducted April 8, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports



1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

19% Strongly approve

10% Somewhat approve

11% Somewhat disapprove

58% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure

Quinnipiac update in New York State, too:




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter Georgia and Michigan only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

31 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

Georgia is favorability, and 45% favorability suggests about a 46% vote. 41% approval would have about the same effect.



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  16
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  76
white                        too close to call  22
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  9
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   55
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 33  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.









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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4548 on: April 16, 2010, 12:06:18 pm »

It's a typo...it's 47/52 in today's Rasmussen.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4549 on: April 16, 2010, 03:07:21 pm »




Gallup Obama

Approve: 49% u

Disapprove: 45% -1

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