The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4675 on: May 02, 2010, 02:43:36 AM »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

UGLY! How did he actually win that state again? Haha.
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Derek
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« Reply #4676 on: May 02, 2010, 03:08:29 AM »

That's what I'm talking about! Bye Bye Barack.
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Sbane
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« Reply #4677 on: May 02, 2010, 03:40:54 AM »

What kind of age demographics are these national polls (Rasmussen, Gallup) using? If they are using a LV screen for the midterms to get these numbers, they are vastly underestimating the number of young voters who will turn out to vote in 2012. If this is the case, wouldn't Obama's approval be a few points higher amongst a 2012 electorate than is being shown by the current polls?
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Derek
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« Reply #4678 on: May 02, 2010, 04:04:57 AM »

What kind of age demographics are these national polls (Rasmussen, Gallup) using? If they are using a LV screen for the midterms to get these numbers, they are vastly underestimating the number of young voters who will turn out to vote in 2012. If this is the case, wouldn't Obama's approval be a few points higher amongst a 2012 electorate than is being shown by the current polls?

In theory, but if Obama is prancing around college campuses instead of fighting Al-Qaida, then the GOP will more than make up for it with TV ads showing that's what he is doing.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4679 on: May 02, 2010, 05:44:03 AM »

That's what I'm talking about! Bye Bye Barack.

He's here until January 2013 at the very least, so I'd try get used to him. Tongue
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Franzl
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« Reply #4680 on: May 02, 2010, 07:32:25 AM »

Rasmussen in my home state of Illinois

61% approve
39% disapprove


And Rasmussen in Delaware

54% approve
46% disapprove


Is it just me or are state approvals quite a bit better than national approvals would suggest?
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Rowan
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« Reply #4681 on: May 02, 2010, 08:21:06 AM »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

UGLY! How did he actually win that state again? Haha.

Because John McCain was a lousy candidate?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4682 on: May 02, 2010, 10:13:32 AM »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

UGLY! How did he actually win that state again? Haha.

Because John McCain was a lousy candidate?

No, because the McCain camp took Indiana for granted, just like Coakley took MA for granted.

BTW, todays Rasmussen:

48% Approve (+2)
51% Disapprove (-2)
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #4683 on: May 02, 2010, 11:19:17 AM »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

I'd take that with a grain of salt. I just read it, it says that 77% of people who said they voted for Obama still approve of him. 90% of people who voted for McCain dissaprove.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4684 on: May 02, 2010, 11:48:20 AM »

Could we be getting low numbers possibly due to the attention on the oil crisis?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4685 on: May 02, 2010, 12:06:33 PM »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

I'd take that with a grain of salt. I just read it, it says that 77% of people who said they voted for Obama still approve of him. 90% of people who voted for McCain dissaprove.

There have been several polls taken in Indiana, all with similar results. He is despised in rural areas right now, so this comes as no suprise to me.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4686 on: May 02, 2010, 12:08:13 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2010, 01:01:57 PM by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 51% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.
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CJK
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« Reply #4687 on: May 02, 2010, 12:38:16 PM »

Obama approval rating for April 2010 (Gallup):

49% Approve

45% disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 41/43 (April 1978)

Reagan: 44/47 (April 1982)

Bush I: 68/17 (April 1990)

Clinton: 50/43 (April 1994)

Bush II: 76/19 (April 2002)
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #4688 on: May 02, 2010, 01:18:57 PM »

You guys do know that Pollster.com does a pretty good job at tracking these kinds of things, right?
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Derek
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« Reply #4689 on: May 02, 2010, 02:46:27 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 51% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


how terrible
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4690 on: May 02, 2010, 03:07:08 PM »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

UGLY! How did he actually win that state again? Haha.

1. Indiana is ordinarily a difficult state in which to campaign for the Presidency.  It has few direct flights except from neighboring states. To get to almost anywhere in Indiana  from outside Indiana by air one practically has to go through Chicago.

The only two Democratic Presidents who have made Indiana close in anything other than monumental blowouts in this century have been Truman (with his whistle-stop train tour that had few logistical difficulties but will never be repeated) and Obama.

Maybe geography suggests the explanation:  Truman was from Missouri, a state similar to Indiana in many respects; Obama campaigned from Chicago  and could turn the usual advantages of the GOP on their head. In close elections, Kennedy '60 (from New England), Carter '76 (from the South), Gore '00 (from who knows where), and Kerry '04 (from New England) got clobbered in Indiana even though winning some nearby states. Bill Clinton, who won with electoral-vote majorities similar to those of Obama '08, lost Indiana by a large margin twice despite winning every state surrounding Indiana.

Obama turned the usual advantages of Republicans against John McCain in Indiana... and won this time.
   
The Obama campaign operated from Chicago. and Obama could campaign extensively in the state in 2008 with frequent appearances. He won't get that chance in 2012 unless the state is the absolute difference between winning and losing.

2. Indiana became contested because of its location. Obama got huge amounts of free publicity while the junior Senator from Illinois not only in Chicago, whose TV broadcasts cover the highly-populated northwestern part of the state, but also Terre Haute and Evansville, whose signals go deep into Illinois.   Michigan was in doubt long into the summer, and to get advertising time into a significant part of Michigan, the campaign had to buy advertising in South Bend. To reach parts of northwestern Ohio, always in doubt until Election Night, the Obama campaign had to buy advertising time in Fort Wayne. Southeastern Indiana is flooded with advertising from Dayton and Cincinnati... and the Obama campaign bought much time in Dayton and Cincinnati.

Indiana was close throughout 2008 -- and when it appeared that Indiana was winnable, the Obama campaign bought ad time in Indianapolis. A state that rarely gets advertising in Presidential elections got huge amounts in 2008. 2012? Obama could win 400 electoral votes and still lose Indiana.

2. It is entirely possible that Obama won the state over issues of economics. Indiana, like its neighbors, is part of the Rust Belt.  (Louisville is Rust Belt, so don't try to use Kentucky as an exception). People who feared a reprise of the Great Depression and thought the GOP unable to meet the danger voted for Obama. In 2012 Obama will preside over a greatly-improved economic situation in which Indiana reverts to its more usual concerns in national politics or one little improved, for which he will be blamed.

3. Indiana is one of two states in whole or part in the northeastern quadrant of the United States (Virginia is the other) that had not voted for a Republican in any Presidential election since 1964. The state may have been drifting D for a decade or so, but it is still more R than the national average. Obama loses this state  with anything less than a 53-47 split of the popular vote.

This entire quadrant has been drifting D since 1980. Economic circumstances are now similar  to those of Michigan and Ohio. 2008 may have been a fluke in Indiana, but if it isn't... 

4. I don't see Indiana as a likely win for Obama in 2008 unless he has an electoral blowout.  It is far easier and more rewarding to campaign in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. He can't do as extensive campaigning in 2012 in Indiana as he did in 2008. Even Texas, of all places, looks like a more likely win for Obama in 2012 than does Indiana.   
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yougo1000
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« Reply #4691 on: May 02, 2010, 03:07:44 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 51% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


how terrible
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4692 on: May 02, 2010, 09:26:03 PM »

Rasmussen in my home state of Illinois

61% approve
39% disapprove


And Rasmussen in Delaware

54% approve
46% disapprove


Is it just me or are state approvals quite a bit better than national approvals would suggest?

My particular formula says no.  I'm going to update the state approvals next week when I get the last straggler April polls, but unless something surprising occurs, it will say this:

ALL POLLS:  48% Approve, 48% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 49% Disapprove)
W/O RASMUSSEN:  48% Approve, 46% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 47% Disapprove)
RASMUSSEN LAST POLL/COMBINED LAST THREE:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove (unchanged)

Rasmussen is saying 47/52 last month (among LV).  Gallup says 49/45 last month (among adults, which, given Gallup's normal formula for RV/LV, means you move the numbers 3 to 4 points towards Republicans, which also therefore means that his approval with Gallup aligns with Rasmussen).

48% is not different enough from 47% for me to say that it's anything except for MOE.  The disapprovals differ, but that probably has to do with methodology (and we can argue on that a bit, whatever). 

Fact is, I think it's pretty clear to me that 46% of the country is in the solid disapproval category and 46%-48% of the country is in the solid approval category.  And this is where I agree with Rasmussen (and have said so before) because I think it's been this way since October of last year (maybe since after Labor Day, but not before then).  It can stay this way for a while, and may well do so.  I think we get some action on way or another before 2012, of course, and probably during 2011, at latest.
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Derek
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« Reply #4693 on: May 02, 2010, 10:17:16 PM »

61% seems a little high for Illinois even though that's his home state and it's a democrat stronghold. I'd put it in the top 5 democrat states at the presidential level with NY, RI, VT, and HI.
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President Mitt
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« Reply #4694 on: May 02, 2010, 10:18:44 PM »

61% seems a little high for Illinois even though that's his home state and it's a democrat stronghold. I'd put it in the top 5 democrat states at the presidential level with NY, RI, VT, and HI.

I severely doubt the Right Wing Thailand party has much strength in Illinois, New York, or any of the states you mentioned for that matter.
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Derek
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« Reply #4695 on: May 02, 2010, 10:22:40 PM »

61% seems a little high for Illinois even though that's his home state and it's a democrat stronghold. I'd put it in the top 5 democrat states at the presidential level with NY, RI, VT, and HI.

I severely doubt the Right Wing Thailand party has much strength in Illinois, New York, or any of the states you mentioned for that matter.

That's what I was saying thanks.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4696 on: May 03, 2010, 01:48:54 AM »

Rasmussen in my home state of Illinois

61% approve
39% disapprove


And Rasmussen in Delaware

54% approve
46% disapprove


Is it just me or are state approvals quite a bit better than national approvals would suggest?

My particular formula says no.  I'm going to update the state approvals next week when I get the last straggler April polls, but unless something surprising occurs, it will say this:

ALL POLLS:  48% Approve, 48% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 49% Disapprove)
W/O RASMUSSEN:  48% Approve, 46% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 47% Disapprove)
RASMUSSEN LAST POLL/COMBINED LAST THREE:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove (unchanged)

Rasmussen is saying 47/52 last month (among LV).  Gallup says 49/45 last month (among adults, which, given Gallup's normal formula for RV/LV, means you move the numbers 3 to 4 points towards Republicans, which also therefore means that his approval with Gallup aligns with Rasmussen).

48% is not different enough from 47% for me to say that it's anything except for MOE.  The disapprovals differ, but that probably has to do with methodology (and we can argue on that a bit, whatever). 

Fact is, I think it's pretty clear to me that 46% of the country is in the solid disapproval category and 46%-48% of the country is in the solid approval category.  And this is where I agree with Rasmussen (and have said so before) because I think it's been this way since October of last year (maybe since after Labor Day, but not before then).  It can stay this way for a while, and may well do so.  I think we get some action on way or another before 2012, of course, and probably during 2011, at latest.

46% approval looks bad, and you can argue that it is, but 46% of people also voted against him in 2008, and his victory was considered a landslide. What I can see from the approval ratings these days is that most of the people disapproving of him disapproved from the start and just gave him a honeymoon, while most people approving were always rooting for him.
  The current political and social polarization so present in these uncertain times have created sort of a stagnant approval for Obama, with people firmly planted in their approval/disapproval camps where they'll hunker down until things get better. If they do get better then we'll see more people approve of him, but if things get worse then the opposite will happen.
  Fast forward to 2012, let's say things are looking good for the O. There's still only so many votes he can get. Bubba down in south Alabama aint votin for so Osama Muslim, no matter how good things are for him or the country. Consequently, a San Francisco tree hugger will never vote for the current Republican party in 2012, no matter how unpopular Obama may be. So basically, both parties really only have a little wiggle room- let's see what they do with it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4697 on: May 03, 2010, 07:38:48 AM »

In anticipation of the Kentucky Derby:

No, just coincidence!

Not too bad for a state in which President Obama lost badly in 2008.



Mixed approval and favorability (the latter, Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

37 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  145
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  12
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  37
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   53
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 47  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.










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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4698 on: May 03, 2010, 07:43:12 AM »

Indiana (SurveyUSA)Sad

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using a registration  based sample (RBS) provided by Aristotle, of Washington DC. All respondents heard the  questions asked identically. The calls were conducted from April 22 through 26.

http://www.scribd.com/INSenPollRCP/d/30717107

UGLY! How did he actually win that state again? Haha.

voodoun magicks
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4699 on: May 03, 2010, 07:44:42 AM »

In anticipation of the Kentucky Derby:

No, just coincidence!

Not too bad for a state in which President Obama lost badly in 2008.

OMGZ !!! Rasmussen exposes their GOP hackishness !!!

Look at the picture on their website:



The real picture should look like this:



Smiley
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