The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206188 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4700 on: May 03, 2010, 08:52:07 AM »

It's hard for me to take anything Sam says seriously with that dog picture in his signature.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #4701 on: May 03, 2010, 09:05:29 AM »

61% seems a little high for Illinois even though that's his home state and it's a democrat stronghold. I'd put it in the top 5 democrat states at the presidential level with NY, RI, VT, and HI.

I severely doubt the Right Wing Thailand party has much strength in Illinois, New York, or any of the states you mentioned for that matter.

That's what I was saying thanks.

I think you might need some help with your reading comprehension, light bulb.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #4702 on: May 03, 2010, 01:06:02 PM »

What is with the now-dissipated bounce on Gallup?  He went from -3 approval to +7 in about a week, and is now back down to about even.  Am I reading too much into that, or does it seem like more than statistical noise?
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Derek
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« Reply #4703 on: May 03, 2010, 01:12:00 PM »

What is with the now-dissipated bounce on Gallup?  He went from -3 approval to +7 in about a week, and is now back down to about even.  Am I reading too much into that, or does it seem like more than statistical noise?

It's the liberal media what do you expect. Palin says it best..... lamestream!
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J. J.
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« Reply #4704 on: May 03, 2010, 03:10:23 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% u

Disapprove 51% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4705 on: May 04, 2010, 12:36:35 AM »

LA (SMOR)Sad

39% Excellent/Good
58% Fair/Poor

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/Louisiana/Politics/Louisiana_Poll_Jindal_Vitter_Melancon_Landrieu_Budget_Obama_Legislature__10756.asp

UT (Mason-Dixon)Sad

30% Favorable
54% Unfavorable

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_15005335

UT (Dan Jones)Sad

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exopolitician
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« Reply #4706 on: May 04, 2010, 12:59:07 AM »

Orrin Hatch?
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J. J.
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« Reply #4707 on: May 04, 2010, 11:27:01 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% u

Disapprove 51% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4708 on: May 04, 2010, 12:35:08 PM »

Gallup is back to normal

Approve: 50 (+ 3)
Disapprove: 45 (- 2)
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Derek
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« Reply #4709 on: May 04, 2010, 02:07:04 PM »

I can't get over Obama being at 47% in Florida. That seems way too high for how he is doing nationally. Florida is usually about 5 points to the right of the nation at the presidential level.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4710 on: May 04, 2010, 08:33:55 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2010, 08:43:48 PM by ArchangelZero »

I can't get over Obama being at 47% in Florida. That seems way too high for how he is doing nationally. Florida is usually about 5 points to the right of the nation at the presidential level.

The fact that SD is actually red should worry people more.

Of course, poll data did suggest (Nov 2008) that Florida would go McCain and SD to Obama.

What is the margin of error usually between polls and actual elections?
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Derek
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« Reply #4711 on: May 04, 2010, 10:53:55 PM »

I can't get over Obama being at 47% in Florida. That seems way too high for how he is doing nationally. Florida is usually about 5 points to the right of the nation at the presidential level.

The fact that SD is actually red should worry people more.

Of course, poll data did suggest (Nov 2008) that Florida would go McCain and SD to Obama.

What is the margin of error usually between polls and actual elections?

5 points, but I'm referring to actual results and not polling. Are you sure about SD polls because I don't remember seeing any polls there with Obama leading? The closest I remember was McCain by 4 and that was a big Democratic year. Under these conditions I see SD going back to 60% GOP. Most likely upper 50's though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4712 on: May 05, 2010, 12:41:12 AM »

Florida (Rasmussen)Sad

47% Approve
53% Disapprove

(Gov. Crist)

62% Approve
38% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, May 3, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

Missouri (Rasmussen)Sad

42% Approve
56% Disapprove

(Gov. Nixon)

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Missouri was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, May 3, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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J. J.
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« Reply #4713 on: May 05, 2010, 09:15:12 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% u

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

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Zarn
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« Reply #4714 on: May 05, 2010, 09:20:50 AM »

I actually believe that the "strongly disapprove" is the important category... for now. If that number rises, he will be in trouble. The ones who moderately disapprove are a part of the more swayable population.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4715 on: May 05, 2010, 01:05:28 PM »

continuing good news for Obama on Gallup.
Approve: 50
Disapprove: 43 (-2)

could this be the beginning of an upward trend?
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Zarn
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« Reply #4716 on: May 05, 2010, 01:38:34 PM »

It's Gallup... wild swings is its specialty.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4717 on: May 05, 2010, 08:27:07 PM »

At this point, I don't see Obama winning Missouri or Florida in 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4718 on: May 05, 2010, 08:27:27 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2010, 07:25:21 AM by pbrower2a »

First May polls: Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Washington




Mixed approval and favorability (the latter,  Michigan, and Ohio only):



The same key applies to both maps. Take your pick.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

37 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  157
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  16
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 134
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  48
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   42
deep blue                 Republican over 10%
 47  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

Favorability is probably 1% below the vote.  This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.












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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4719 on: May 05, 2010, 11:18:55 PM »

Hmm, by that map the election would be 08 all over again without Indiana (and possibly Virginia).

Main difference would probably be that there would be tons more battleground states for the opposition to work out of.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4720 on: May 05, 2010, 11:23:41 PM »

Obama is basically getting to the place he was during the election, with the Northeast, upper midwest and west coast strongly approving, and certain battleground states giving him just majority approval. If the election were held today, he would probably lose Indiana, NC and maybe Virginia but keep everything else.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4721 on: May 06, 2010, 07:45:36 AM »

Obama is basically getting to the place he was during the election, with the Northeast, upper midwest and west coast strongly approving, and certain battleground states giving him just majority approval. If the election were held today, he would probably lose Indiana, NC and maybe Virginia but keep everything else.

I'm not putting much faith in Texas being close in 2012 despite the pale blue shade. Texas is a difficult state to poll because of its size and lack of homogeneity. 

Virginia simply hasn't been polled for a long time. The gubernatorial race is over, and there's no Senate race.   Approval ratings for the Governor would be interesting. Considering how North Carolina is going, neighboring Virginia might not be an assumed lock for the GOP. 

Minnesota hasn't been polled for a long time, either.

Things look much as they did in roughly August 2008, which suggests that

(1) political cultures within the States have on the whole changed little -- except perhaps in Arizona and Indiana.

(2) the acrimony about health-care reform is fading away.

(3) Indiana in 2008 was probably a freakish situation -- the statewide GOP had nothing to lose and contested the race little, the Indiana economy was almost as much in the tank as were the economies of neighboring Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio, and that Obama campaigned heavily there.

(4) The Dakotas were in doubt throughout the summer of 2008. 

Another possibility:

The GOP peaked far too early for the 2012 Presidential election. President Obama seems shrewd enough to have timed his most controversial programs to coincide with the time of greatest safety to himself -- and perhaps (note the weasel word) his Senate and Congressional allies.

This country now needs a genuine conservative opposition to this President -- an opposition that doesn't simply vote in lockstep, but instead votes for what is best for its states and Congressional districts irrespective of partisanship.  It needs to establish some credibility -- an individual characteristic and not the result of some partisan or ideological position.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4722 on: May 06, 2010, 11:53:01 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% -1

Disapprove 52% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.


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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4723 on: May 06, 2010, 12:26:57 PM »

Rasmussen North Carolina: 44/56
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old timey villain
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« Reply #4724 on: May 06, 2010, 12:29:29 PM »

We might as well throw in the towel, folks.  Obama is rebounding rapidly, the economy is growing almost too fast, and in contrast to Bush and Katrina, Obama reacted quickly to the oil spill in only six days.  Meanwhile, the Republican Party is divided over illegal immigration, and Hispanics are rapidly turning away from the GOP.  I hate to say it, folks, but if we keep this up then in 2012 we'll lose:

TEXAS
As much as I want to jump for you at this prospect, I would say that it's way too early to make this assessment. A few months ago, after Scott Brown was elected Obama was in dire straits and both the 2010 and 2012 elections looked to be bad for dems. Honestly, I didn't think any of us dems expected healthcare to be such an ugly, bitter fight. My point is, things could change rapidly- and they probably will in some way or another. Here is what is certain right now-
1) Republicans have pissed off hispanics through the Sotomayor conformation and the Arizona immigration law. I don't see them being a competitive group in 2012 unless the GOP does a hell of a lot to woo them.
2) Blacks love Obama, young people love Obama, highly educated people love Obama, jews love obama, most asians love Obama, he has these groups in the bag.
3)The economy is improving and when real improvement is seen Obama's approvals go up.
4)Terrorism could be his weakness, a successive number of terror scares can and will damage his credibility.
5) Immigration reform will be polarizing

that's all I got...
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