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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4850 on: May 19, 2010, 09:36:53 am »

Arizona Republicans (Rasmussen)Sad

10% Approve
88% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 541 Likely GOP Voters in Arizona was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

Damn, that sure won't do the Dems any good in the Southwest.  And to think some were actually hoping that the GOP would lose the seat in November.

Don`t worry, Obama got only 8% of Republicans in 2008 against McCain.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4851 on: May 19, 2010, 09:38:16 am »

Minnesota (MPR/Humphrey Institute)Sad



This survey is a collaboration between Minnesota Public Radio News and the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs. The survey was analyzed by the center. The research team was Lawrence R. Jacobs (center director) and Joanne M. Miller (associate professor, Department of Political Science). Geoff Sheagley provided research assistance.

The survey of 701 Minnesota adults was conducted May 13-May 16, 2010, following the three major parties' endorsing conventions. The margin of error is +/-5.8 percentage points. For smaller subgroups, the margin of sampling error is larger.

The distribution of party identification among adults in the full sample is as follows:



http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2010/05/19-gov-race-poll/index.shtml
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #4852 on: May 19, 2010, 10:01:07 am »

Too bad that's a junk uni poll, though Franken having higher approvals than Pawlenty is very amusing.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4853 on: May 19, 2010, 10:14:00 am »

I don't understand the national numbers against the state numbers. The state numbers seem as high as ever....sometimes even higher than they should be.

There's a couple of reasons why - I've laid them out before, maybe I'll lay them out later.
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Derek
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« Reply #4854 on: May 19, 2010, 10:35:49 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Again, it could be a bad sample.

WORD!!!!!
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Badger
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« Reply #4855 on: May 19, 2010, 10:37:05 am »

Arizona Republicans (Rasmussen)Sad

10% Approve
88% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 541 Likely GOP Voters in Arizona was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

Damn, that sure won't do the Dems any good in the Southwest.  And to think some were actually hoping that the GOP would lose the seat in November.

Don`t worry, Obama got only 8% of Republicans in 2008 against McCain.

Yeah, I'm frankly surprised its as high as 10%. This is the AZ GOP we're talking about after all.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4856 on: May 19, 2010, 11:25:48 am »

Arizona (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
60% Disapprove

(Gov. Jan Brewer)

64% Approve
35% Disapprove

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on May 17, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

Colorado (PPP)Sad

45% Approve
50% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 1,060 Colorado voters from May 14th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_519.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #4857 on: May 19, 2010, 11:38:55 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Again, it could be a bad sample.

WORD!!!!!

I'd be a heck of a lot more impressed if the numbers continued in this range for 4-6 days.  This could be a bad sample.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4858 on: May 19, 2010, 11:49:13 am »
« Edited: May 19, 2010, 11:53:24 am by pbrower2a »

AZ and CT updates, MN






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

39 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  171
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  78
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 80
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.



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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #4859 on: May 19, 2010, 09:55:16 pm »

So a 2% approval in Minnesota makes it safe and a 15% disapproval in Texas makes it a tossup.  Yes.  Thank you for your wisdom.
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Derek
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« Reply #4860 on: May 19, 2010, 10:20:06 pm »

He's right above where Bush is remembered at. There was a poll I saw showing that based on what ppl remember Bush was at 41% approval. Nice job Obama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4861 on: May 19, 2010, 11:53:05 pm »
« Edited: May 20, 2010, 06:43:04 am by pbrower2a »

He's right above where Bush is remembered at. There was a poll I saw showing that based on what ppl remember Bush was at 41% approval. Nice job Obama.

The pattern holds true for gubernatorial and senatorial incumbents -- and not for challengers. So why not the President? If anything I mute the effect. An incumbent Governor or Senator can do the sports equivalent of running up the score; if he has a 65% approval rating in May the year of the election he might try for and get 70% of the vote. Obama isn't going to do that in a place like Vermont, and I don't expect him to try to win approval in Idaho where he has no chance of winning.

The difference between approval and vote share for an incumbent is that the incumbent gets huge attention from the media, has already shown the ability to win an election, has a campaign staff from the last time that aided the win, and gets to control the agenda. Sure, should he be a turkey he loses, but that also holds true for an incumbent Senator or Governor. The pattern holds true for winners (extreme examples include Carl Levin and Jon Huntsman) and losers (Rick Santorum and John Corzine) alike. Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) and Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT) piled on the points; Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Governor John Corzine (D-NJ) gained from abysmal starts and still lost badly.

Toward election time one starts to see real-life face-offs in which opponents are even named. But we are at least 29 months away from Election 2012, and we don't know who the opponent. When we start seeing

Missouri -- Obama 47%, Huckabee 52%

in late September then we need attempt to figure what is going on with any adjustments to "norm" the advantages for an incumbent.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4862 on: May 20, 2010, 12:36:02 am »

SurveyUSA - May (600 adults)Sad

California: 51% Approve, 44% Disapprove

Kansas: 33% Approve, 65% Disapprove

New York: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Oregon: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Washington: 49% Approve, 47% Disapprove
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« Reply #4863 on: May 20, 2010, 06:37:30 am »

SurveyUSA - May (600 adults)Sad

California: 51% Approve, 44% Disapprove

Kansas: 33% Approve, 65% Disapprove

New York: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Oregon: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Washington: 49% Approve, 47% Disapprove

Are these real? If so, I have to lol @ Obama supposedly having the same approval in New York and Oregon. Ridiculous.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4864 on: May 20, 2010, 06:46:55 am »

SurveyUSA - May (600 adults)Sad

California: 51% Approve, 44% Disapprove

Kansas: 33% Approve, 65% Disapprove

New York: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Oregon: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Washington: 49% Approve, 47% Disapprove

Are these real? If so, I have to lol @ Obama supposedly having the same approval in New York and Oregon. Ridiculous.

Rasmussen usually refutes SUSA within a few weeks. Supposedly Rasmussen has a model giving a house advantage to Republicans -- but SUSA goes far beyond what Rasmussen is accused of. SUSA generally polls the same group of states, and never ones likely to decide anything.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4865 on: May 20, 2010, 07:46:26 am »

Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Governor John Corzine (D-NJ) gained from abysmal starts and still lost badly.

If by abysmal start, you mean that Corzine ahead of Christie in the matchups in 2008 and steadily declined until he was consistently behind Christie the summer or fall of 2009, where he rebounded slightly but never back to the point where he started, then yeah. As for Santorum, he was always behind Casey by the same ten or so points pretty consistently throughout the campaign. That, of course, exploded to an 18 point loss on Election Day.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4866 on: May 20, 2010, 09:35:33 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% +1

Disapprove 53% -2


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

A bad sample look like it dropped off, but the numbers are still lower.  One more day is needed to confirm that.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4867 on: May 20, 2010, 09:38:29 am »

SurveyUSA - May (600 adults)Sad

California: 51% Approve, 44% Disapprove

Kansas: 33% Approve, 65% Disapprove

New York: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Oregon: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Washington: 49% Approve, 47% Disapprove

Are these real? If so, I have to lol @ Obama supposedly having the same approval in New York and Oregon. Ridiculous.

Rasmussen usually refutes SUSA within a few weeks. Supposedly Rasmussen has a model giving a house advantage to Republicans -- but SUSA goes far beyond what Rasmussen is accused of. SUSA generally polls the same group of states, and never ones likely to decide anything.

Actually Rasmussen generic ballot has dropped slightly.  It is at +6 R, but it was as high as +10 earlier in the year. 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
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« Reply #4868 on: May 20, 2010, 09:41:30 am »

Realclear Politics

48.6   Approve   45.7   Disapprove
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4869 on: May 20, 2010, 12:49:52 pm »

Pennsylvania (Rasmussen)Sad

47% Approve
52% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 19, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

Kentucky (Rasmussen)Sad

36% Approve
63% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on May 19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

South Carolina GOP (Rasmussen)Sad

10% Approve
90% Disapprove

The survey of 931 Likely Republican Primary Voters in South Carolina was conducted on May 17, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4870 on: May 20, 2010, 01:11:51 pm »

So a 2% approval in Minnesota makes it safe and a 15% disapproval in Texas makes it a tossup.  Yes.  Thank you for your wisdom.

Safe?

Hardly. George Allen started with an approval slightly above 50% in 2006 and still lost. He was a rarity -- but so was his "macaca" moment in whyich he said derogatory stuff against a minority group (Asian Indians) against whom few Americans show much antipathy, and so was the assault and battery by staffers against a heckler. Of course, such outrageous behavior is rare among politicians, and so is losing an election despite being up just over 50% a few months before the general election. Sure, 2006 was a bad year for Republicans -- but look at how the pattern held with Santorum, who started below 40% approval and gained... a little.

Of course it is possible that President Obama can still have a sub-par Presidency in which  approval ratings for him sink below 43%, in which case he dooms any effort to get re-elected. It is also possible that something could derail his effort -- something so unforeseeable as a sex scandal or blatant, inexcusable corruption. But 44% WILL BE ENOUGH AT ANY TIME BEFORE ABOUT APRIL 2012 to suggest a 50% share of the vote -- and victory.

Look at what the challenger has to do: not only must the challenger seal up the base, but also

(1) satisfy the factions within the GOP -- the Religious Right and Big Business alike -- and

(2) get the majority of independent voters if not pick off some dissident Democrats

So President Obama isn't the clear perfect match for America. Big deal! No President is!

But neither is any challenger. So far as I can tell, no imaginable GOP nominee has the certifiable ability to

(1) show no regional weaknesses

(2) appeal to the entire GOP coalition without offending just about every Democrat

(3) make inroads into the Blue Firewall.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4871 on: May 20, 2010, 01:15:16 pm »
« Edited: May 20, 2010, 01:19:26 pm by pbrower2a »

KY, PA updates (Sestak leads Toomey, by the way).

I have chosen to ignore the SUSA polls that usually create more trouble than they are worth.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

39 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  171
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  3
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   63
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4872 on: May 20, 2010, 06:17:01 pm »

Democracy Corps (D)

approval/disapproval: 47/47, 46/49 among likely voters

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics:

45/46
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J. J.
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« Reply #4873 on: May 21, 2010, 09:18:54 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% +1

Disapprove 53% u


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.


There might have been slight erosion on Obama's numbers, but across the board.  It doesn't indicate a big shift.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4874 on: May 21, 2010, 10:13:27 am »

Obama: 32/67 in Arkansas
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