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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016586 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #4875 on: May 21, 2010, 10:32:43 am »
« edited: May 21, 2010, 11:52:49 am by pbrower2a »

Arkansas State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

19% Strongly approve
13% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
57% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

This looks like about the range in which military coups happen in most countries. Mercifully for President Obama, Arkansas isn't particularly representative of the United States at large, or else he might be seeking political asylum..

North Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 18-19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

23% Strongly approve
18% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
44% Strongly disapprove
2% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

39 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  171
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #4876 on: May 21, 2010, 10:39:37 am »

I wanna see Obama's approval drop more just to see how pbrower can still twist it into an Obama advantage.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4877 on: May 21, 2010, 07:33:14 pm »

I wanna see Obama's approval drop more just to see how pbrower can still twist it into an Obama advantage.

I am not enough of a liar to be a propagandist. If President Obama's approval rating should sink into the thirties, then his Administration is likely doomed. Low foerties? Troubvle, but not insurmountable. High forties?

By 2012 the campaign machine will be out of mothballs and the campaign will use its resources wisely to play the margins as it did in 2008.

President Obama has yet to show any suicidal vanity in his campaigns. He is a formidable speaker, and when he is on a full campaign he is as effective as Ronald Reagan.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #4878 on: May 21, 2010, 07:43:26 pm »

Looking at these numbers, I think the add 10 rule is more appropriate than anything else (add 10 to the approval rating). This puts Texas and Arizona in play. Obama is still safe for reelection against anyone the Republicans put up.
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Franzl
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« Reply #4879 on: May 21, 2010, 07:55:07 pm »

This looks like about the range in which military coups happen in most countries. Mercifully for President Obama, Arkansas isn't particularly representative of the United States at large, or else he might be seeking political asylum..

lol, idiot
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Vepres
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« Reply #4880 on: May 21, 2010, 08:18:30 pm »

This looks like about the range in which military coups happen in most countries. Mercifully for President Obama, Arkansas isn't particularly representative of the United States at large, or else he might be seeking political asylum..

lol, idiot

Grin
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Franzl
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« Reply #4881 on: May 21, 2010, 08:21:01 pm »

This looks like about the range in which military coups happen in most countries. Mercifully for President Obama, Arkansas isn't particularly representative of the United States at large, or else he might be seeking political asylum..

lol, idiot

Grin

I have him on ignore actually....but I sometimes do look at the posts anyway. I sincerely regret it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4882 on: May 22, 2010, 10:33:16 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.


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DariusNJ
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« Reply #4883 on: May 22, 2010, 05:26:46 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.




So I guess it was a bad sample for the last few days.

I disapprove, I am really disappointed (to say the least) at his response to this oil spill.
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Derek
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« Reply #4884 on: May 22, 2010, 10:06:59 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

What is a bad sample?


So I guess it was a bad sample for the last few days.

I disapprove, I am really disappointed (to say the least) at his response to this oil spill.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4885 on: May 22, 2010, 11:37:52 pm »

Florida (Ipsos Public Affairs/St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald etc.)

48% Approve
46% Disapprove

The telephone survey of 607 registered voters was conducted May 14–18 for News 13, Bay News 9, the St. Petersburg Times and the Miami Herald.

The poll was done by Ipsos Public Affairs, a Washington, D.C.-based independent, nonpartisan research company.

The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points overall, and slightly more than 6 percentage points for questions asked solely to Democrats or Republicans.

Link
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4886 on: May 23, 2010, 06:12:27 am »
« Edited: May 23, 2010, 02:05:18 pm by pbrower2a »

Florida update:




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

39 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  171
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  30
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4887 on: May 23, 2010, 10:12:41 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% -3

Disapprove 54% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #4888 on: May 23, 2010, 10:20:32 am »



So I guess it was a bad sample for the last few days.

I disapprove, I am really disappointed (to say the least) at his response to this oil spill.

No, it is not a bad (or skewed) sample.  Any sample drops off after three days.  This started clearly on 5/17 and is still there.  Also Obama's disapproval numbers did not go up too much on Rasmussen.  This is back to the erosion of the base.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #4889 on: May 23, 2010, 01:39:14 pm »

Gallup: 48/45
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Derek
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« Reply #4890 on: May 23, 2010, 08:20:58 pm »

where are ppl getting the add 10 points to the approval? Just for the sake of doing it?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #4891 on: May 23, 2010, 08:29:32 pm »

where are ppl getting the add 10 points to the approval? Just for the sake of doing it?

pbrower introduced us to the add 6 rule, where you add six to the approvals to get what percentage the incumbent will get in an election. I decided I would be a smart ass and add 10. I just made that up.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #4892 on: May 23, 2010, 09:58:21 pm »

I missed the maps rowans did. So here is an up to date one with his colors colors.


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4893 on: May 24, 2010, 05:41:12 am »

Texas (University of Texas / YouGov / Texas Tribune)Sad

35% Approve
58% Disapprove

This is the third University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The Internet survey of 800 registered voters was conducted May 14-20 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent.

http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/UTTT_May_2010_Poll-day1-toplinespdf.pdf
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yougo1000
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« Reply #4894 on: May 24, 2010, 07:19:57 am »

Pollster   Date   Approve   Disapprove
AVERAGE        43.8%    52.3%
AP GFK   5/7-11/10   45   52
CBS   4/28-5/2/10   48   47
ABC Washington Post   4/22-25/10   49   49
Quinnipiac   4/14-19/10   40   55
FOX   4/6-7/10   42   53
USA Today Gallup   3/26-28/10   37   61
CNN ORC   3/25-28/10   44   55
NBC WSJ   1/10-14/10   43   49
American Research Group   12/17-20/09   45   52
Bloomberg   12/3-7/09   45   50
Barack Obama's Handling of Afghanistan War

Do you approve/disapprove of Obama's handling of Afghanistan?
Pollster   Date   Approve   Disapprove
AVERAGE        48.3%    40.1%
AP GFK   5/7-11/10   49   39
ABC Washington Post   4/22-25/10   56   36
Fox   4/6-7/10   49   36
CBS   3/29-4/1/10   48   36
CNN   3/19-21/10   55   42
USA Today Gallup   2/1-3/10   48   47
Quinnipiac   4/14-19/10   49   39
NBC WSJ   12/11-14/09   46   42
Bloomberg   12/3-7/09   48   43
Rasmussen Reports   11/19-20/09   35   41
Barack Obama's Handling of the Federal Budget Deficit

Do you approve/disapprove of Obama's handling of the federal budget deficit?
Pollster   Date   Approve   Disapprove
AVERAGE        34.3%    59.9%
AP GFK   5/7-11/10   35   56
ABC Washington Post   4/22-25/10   40   55
Quinnipiac   4/14-19/10   34   59
Fox   4/6-7/10   31   62
USA Today Gallup   3/26-28/10   31   64
CNN   3/19-21/10   36   62
Gallup   2/1-3/10   32   64
Bloomberg   12/3-7/09   35   57
Barack Obama's Handling of Jobs and Unemployment

Do you approve/disapprove of Obama's handling of unemployment?
Pollster   Date   Approve   Disapprove
AVERAGE        41.1%    52.3%
AP GFK   5/7-11/10    43   48
Fox   4/6-7/10   40   54
CNN ORC   3/19-21/10   45   53
Gallup   3/4-7/10   38   54
ABC   2/4-8/10   47   51
Quinnipiac   4/14-19/10   38   56
CBS   12/4-8/09   38   47
USA Today Gallup   11/20-22/09   40   55
Barack Obama's Handling of Health Care

Do you approve/disapprove of Obama's handling of health care?
Pollster   Date   Approve   Disapprove
AVERAGE        43.0%    52.3%
AP GFK   5/7-11/10   45   51
CBS NYT   4/28-5/2/10   44   48
ABC Washington Post   4/22-25/10   49   49
Quinnipiac   4/14-19/10   40   55
Fox   4/6-7/10   40   53
USA Today Gallup   3/26-28/10   42   54
CNN ORC   3/25-28/10   45   54
NBC   3/11,13-14/10   41   57
Bloomberg   12/3-7/09   40   53
Marist   10/7,8&12/09   44   49
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4895 on: May 24, 2010, 08:07:59 am »

Texas (University of Texas / YouGov / Texas Tribune)Sad

35% Approve
58% Disapprove

This is the third University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The Internet survey of 800 registered voters was conducted May 14-20 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent.

http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/UTTT_May_2010_Poll-day1-toplinespdf.pdf

Internet and interactive polls are not usable.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4896 on: May 24, 2010, 08:18:44 am »

where are ppl getting the add 10 points to the approval? Just for the sake of doing it?

pbrower introduced us to the add 6 rule, where you add six to the approvals to get what percentage the incumbent will get in an election. I decided I would be a smart ass and add 10. I just made that up.

If you do not add at least 15 yuo aer a rethuglican HACK
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J. J.
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« Reply #4897 on: May 24, 2010, 11:21:17 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


There is erosion in the base.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4898 on: May 24, 2010, 11:56:11 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


There is erosion in the base.

It's the oil spill.  When that blows over in the media it will come back up a little bit.  As of right now, it doesn't seem like calling the spill "Obama's Katrina" (as retarded as it is) is helping him at all. 

And Rasmussen is probably a little more to the right, so I'd put his approval probably around 47-48. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4899 on: May 24, 2010, 12:07:27 pm »

Alabama (Research 2000)Sad

29% Favorable
66% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Alabama Poll was conducted from May 17 through May 19, 2010. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/5/19/AL/525
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