Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 18, 2019, 08:48:29 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 222 223 224 225 226 [227] 228 229 230 231 232 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1010364 times)
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,080
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5650 on: August 12, 2010, 09:34:30 am »

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.

OK, there is a really -good reason to distrust the numbers: they add up to 110%!

Take another look:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

You are right -- I am not going to accept that poll at face value. Just wait for the next one -- a correction, surely.
Maybe if you'd copy down polls right this wouldn't be an issue.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_august_10_2010

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rasmussen corrected a misprint. Such happens.
Of course, silly Rasmussen. Tongue
...
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,004
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5651 on: August 12, 2010, 11:50:28 am »

MO & MI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,301
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5652 on: August 12, 2010, 12:43:07 pm »

FL (Rasmussen): 44-54

IL (Rasmussen): 54-46

MO (Rasmussen): 43-56

WI (Rasmussen): 49-50

CO (Rasmussen): 47-52
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5653 on: August 12, 2010, 02:19:11 pm »

MO & MI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

It looks like a county slipping slowly away from Obama.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5654 on: August 12, 2010, 05:33:26 pm »
« Edited: August 13, 2010, 09:13:41 am by pbrower2a »

Colorado Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 11, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    29% Strongly approve
    18% Somewhat approve
       6% Somewhat disapprove
    46% Strongly disapprove
       1% Not sure

WI corrected.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  67
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 102
white                        too close to call  15
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  33
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......






Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5655 on: August 13, 2010, 09:00:13 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -3.

In range.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5656 on: August 13, 2010, 09:32:43 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -3.

In range.

If this is where President Obama starts in February 2012 then he has about a 90% chance of winning re-election. 44% approval is about the break-even point.

Can he fail? Sure. He could make huge gaffes that discredit him, and there could be a surprisingly-strong candidate. The political culture could conceivably shift severely and quickly to the detriment of the President. There could be some international disaster, and the economy could fall apart quickly.

13 of 18 Presidents seeking re-election since 1900 have been re-elected, which is 72% in a time of changing technologies in communication and transportation, demographic change, official enfranchisement women and genuine enfranchisement of blacks, of population growth, booms and busts, war and peace, the 22nd Amendment (no third term), but essentially the same method of electing the President. Direct election by popular vote would have changed only one election, and that one did not involve an incumbent. (I could make the case that Bill Clinton would have defeated George W. Bush had it not been for the 22nd Amendment, but that is beyond the scope of this argument).

The incumbent has the perquisites of the Presidency, including the ability to establish oneself as a firm and decisive leader, the ability to use a podium with the Presidential seal attached as a source of authority, and greater ability to shape events than any challenger can ever do. His campaign can use campaign advertising to complement the media attention  that he gets. Sure, if he is a failure like Jimmy Carter that advertising must be defensive and ultimately futile.

Day-to-day shifts may reflect the news cycle and day-to-day shifts of the stock market that people pay attention to.  We have seen those and we should draw no conclusions from them.   
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,004
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5657 on: August 13, 2010, 11:27:16 am »

Rasmussen:
MN 47/52
CT 55/46
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,004
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5658 on: August 13, 2010, 11:29:16 am »

FL, MN, & CT



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,712
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5659 on: August 13, 2010, 01:37:18 pm »

So I would figure that the actual approval rating of Obama is right around 46-47%.  I don't really think that's too bad considering the overall negativity of the coverage he's received and that he needs more than 19-20 months to clean up Bush's mess.

I expect him to be back in the green by year's end.  I wish someone other than Rasmussen would do regular state polls so we had a more accurate average.  What happened to SurveryUSA doing approval polls all the time? 
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5660 on: August 13, 2010, 04:47:58 pm »

Georgia Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 11, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

32% Strongly approve
14% Somewhat approve
  5% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

 Minnesota State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

28% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Rasmussen could be undercounting military personnel in Georgia, as they might be hard to poll. Then again, Ras might have been doing so in all previous polls, too.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  15
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  33
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  25
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......







Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5661 on: August 13, 2010, 04:52:22 pm »

So I would figure that the actual approval rating of Obama is right around 46-47%.  I don't really think that's too bad considering the overall negativity of the coverage he's received and that he needs more than 19-20 months to clean up Bush's mess.

I expect him to be back in the green by year's end.  I wish someone other than Rasmussen would do regular state polls so we had a more accurate average.  What happened to SurveyUSA doing approval polls all the time? 

46-47% is about where you want him to be before an electoral campaign is underway. Anything higher than 50% might elicit arrogance that could be trouble  after his nearly-assured victory. 46% or 47%? He would have to convince people that he needs their vote.
Logged
Yelnoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,015
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5662 on: August 13, 2010, 06:25:05 pm »

Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.
Logged
Oakvale
oakvale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,636
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5663 on: August 13, 2010, 06:55:40 pm »

Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.

Obama came pretty close to winning Georgia in 2008, y'know.

I'm just sayin'
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5664 on: August 13, 2010, 07:02:56 pm »

Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.

If he successfully extricates the Armed Forces from Afghanistan and Iraq by 2012 he wins Georgia. Much else, too.

I did suggest that 47% approval in Georgia is hard to believe.
Logged
Yelnoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,015
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5665 on: August 13, 2010, 08:16:59 pm »

Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.

If he successfully extricates the Armed Forces from Afghanistan and Iraq by 2012 he wins Georgia. Much else, too.

I did suggest that 47% approval in Georgia is hard to believe.
Maybe, but then again maybe Petraeus is exonerated while Obama is pretty much discredited.  Obamaphobia is high amongst the suburbs and an epedimic in the sticks which is more than enough to counteract the votes of intellectuals, blacks, urban dwellers, and other assorted democratic voters.

I'm inclined to think this poll is a blip.
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,004
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5666 on: August 13, 2010, 08:22:52 pm »

Like those weird SUSA polls showing Obama unsualy low on the west coast, this is unusualy high for Georgia, so I'll wait to see the next poll.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5667 on: August 13, 2010, 10:44:19 pm »

Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.

If he successfully extricates the Armed Forces from Afghanistan and Iraq by 2012 he wins Georgia. Much else, too.

I did suggest that 47% approval in Georgia is hard to believe.
Maybe, but then again maybe Petraeus is exonerated while Obama is pretty much discredited.  Obamaphobia is high amongst the suburbs and an epedimic in the sticks which is more than enough to counteract the votes of intellectuals, blacks, urban dwellers, and other assorted democratic voters.

I'm inclined to think this poll is a blip.

1. The historical pattern is that successful generals win wars and win landslide victories for incumbent Presidents.  Think Lincoln 1864, McKinley 1900, FDR 1944... McKinley was a below-average President, and FDR was a dying man. A general who solves an international mess that the previous President created solves a big problem for Obama.

2. Blip? Some polls last month showed Obama with approvals in the 42% and 43% range in Kentucky and Tennessee last month. Genuine? Who knows?

3. You did notice, surely, that on the same post that showed Obama having 47% approval in Georgia showed the same number in Minnesota.  That looks like an implausible situation.

4. The GOP has not won the Presidency without winning Georgia since 1980, and that year Georgia had the favorite-son candidate. Nixon won without Georgia in 1968 (Georgia going to the racist George Wallace) and Eisenhower lost Georgia twice in a political environment very different from what exists now.

5. The states most likely to swing in raw vote toward Obama are the Southern states in which he got creamed. First, Southerners tend to have more deference toward military service and heroism -- and the Republican nominee of 2012 will have no record of military heroism. Southern white voters generally have more misgivings about any non-white political figure, but should President Obama allay many of those fears those states become much closer in 2012 even if he doesn't win them. Georgia is more like those states than any state that Obama came close to winning -- even North Carolina. The difference between Georgia and either Alabama or Mississippi is Metro Atlanta.   

6. Barack Obama won without winning a constituency that Carter appealed to successfully in 1976 (but lost them in 1980) and Clinton won in 1992 and 1996: poor Southern whites.  Mondale, Gore, Kerry, and Obama lost them. Obama did not try. He could never run as a Southern populist in 2008 and will be unable to do so in 2012. But he can give the results if all goes right, and that might swing a state or two. Georgia is the most likely such state, and  I can think of only one state that President Obama would more like to swing in 2012. That state lies to the immediate west of Louisiana.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5668 on: August 14, 2010, 08:45:00 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

In range.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5669 on: August 14, 2010, 08:50:39 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -3.

In range.

If this is where President Obama starts in February 2012 then he has about a 90% chance of winning re-election. 44% approval is about the break-even point.



This is August 2010, not February 2012.  There has been a general and substantial decline in his number, long term.  The only good news for Obama, is that, sort term, there has been no decline, though no improvement.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5670 on: August 14, 2010, 10:53:37 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -3.

In range.

If this is where President Obama starts in February 2012 then he has about a 90% chance of winning re-election. 44% approval is about the break-even point.



This is August 2010, not February 2012.  There has been a general and substantial decline in his number, long term.  The only good news for Obama, is that, short term, there has been no decline, though no improvement.

I assume no further long-term decline. There will be statistical noise, perhaps reflecting the news of the day (including economic indicators as announced). The potential for a big economic downturn is much smaller than it was in the winter of 2008-2009. There is no speculative boom for the simple reason that none is possible. The US is pulling out of combat operations in Iraq (a good thing, because they were ineffective) and has a scheduled exit from Afghanistan. It might not be Eisenhower getting an armistice in Korea, but it isn't the worst scenario possible. Sure, I'd love to see Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri on the way to a federal criminal trial for the capital offense of genocide for 9/11 -- but who knows whether either is alive.

As I have said elsewhere, President Obama will run on his achievements in 2012 and win -- or try to run from his failures (yet to be shown) and lose.  Such will manifest themselves in approval polls.
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,004
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5671 on: August 14, 2010, 12:01:15 pm »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,301
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5672 on: August 14, 2010, 12:04:48 pm »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link


It´s 46-53.
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,004
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5673 on: August 14, 2010, 12:08:50 pm »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link


It´s 46-53.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,301
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5674 on: August 14, 2010, 12:10:46 pm »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link


It´s 46-53.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Click on the topline page.

The Senate and the Governor poll were conducted on the same day, it´s 46-53.

Rasmussen did write it wrong in their release.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 222 223 224 225 226 [227] 228 229 230 231 232 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC