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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016384 times)
Devilman88
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« Reply #5825 on: August 22, 2010, 12:56:10 pm »

The weekends polls are always good for Obama.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5826 on: August 22, 2010, 03:43:56 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +3.

Disapprove 51%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

For formatting.

Probably a good Obama sample moving into the system.  Still barely within range.

Within the range for recent highs. We have been seeing overall approval ratings between 43% for lows and 49% for highs over the last couple of months.  I haven't seen any approval over 50% for about a year now, which really would be outside the range.





I think it is at the upper end of the "normal" range.  If it's 48%+ in four days, there might be some real movement.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5827 on: August 23, 2010, 09:29:06 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

The strongly numbers are at the edge of pro-Obama range.  It could be a good Obamasample moving through the system.
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« Reply #5828 on: August 23, 2010, 02:35:55 pm »
« Edited: August 24, 2010, 10:31:15 am by pbrower2a »

...not that it changes anything:

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted on August 22, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

20% Strongly approve

14% Somewhat approve

11% Somewhat disapprove

54% Strongly disapprove

  1% Not sure

This one has some significance, though:

Oregon Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
22% Somewhat approve
  5% Somewhat disapprove
42% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  126
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  59
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 122
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 18
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 167



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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Dgov
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« Reply #5829 on: August 23, 2010, 05:13:41 pm »

Gallup's weekly averages are up for the past week, showing 43-50 (From 44-48 last week).  It doesn't look good for him, to say the least.  The only categories he gets above 50% approval in are the under-30s (52%), Blacks (87%), Democrats (76%), Liberals (74%), the unmarried (52%), and some derivatives of the above (Liberal Democrats, etc.).  He's at 50% with Hispanics and Moderates.

The Biggest drops from a week ago are from pure independents (42 to 32), Blacks (93 to 87), the infrequent Churchgoers (45 to 39), and Baby Boomers (45 to 39).  The biggest increases were among under 30s (46 to 52), and Liberal Democrats (82 to 86)
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J. J.
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« Reply #5830 on: August 24, 2010, 08:43:38 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #5831 on: August 24, 2010, 10:33:22 am »
« Edited: August 24, 2010, 04:41:06 pm by Emperor JBrase »

OR & TX


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5832 on: August 24, 2010, 01:14:52 pm »

FL (PPP): 39-55

MO (Rasmussen): 41-58
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5833 on: August 24, 2010, 02:15:32 pm »

Missouri State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 23, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       23% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         9% Somewhat disapprove
       49% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure


Florida poll?  it provokes more questions than it resolves.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  126
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  59
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 122
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 29
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 184



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

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HokeyDood
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« Reply #5834 on: August 24, 2010, 02:35:20 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.


Just curious.  It seems that recently there have been an even number of days showing Obama around 47-48% and those showing him around 44-45%. 

How come every day it goes a little up it must have just been a good Obama sample?  Isn't it just as easy for me to say today's sample is a BAD Obama sample? 
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5835 on: August 24, 2010, 02:48:14 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.


Just curious.  It seems that recently there have been an even number of days showing Obama around 47-48% and those showing him around 44-45%. 

How come every day it goes a little up it must have just been a good Obama sample?  Isn't it just as easy for me to say today's sample is a BAD Obama sample? 

He's not passing judgements on "good" versus "bad" samples, he's stating an obvious fact: That Obama's numbers declined because a strong Obama sample -- that is, one where Obama was viewed favorably -- dropped off the moving average.

Today's sample could be unrepresentative of the average -- or it could be dead on. That's why any analysis here has to be viewed in terms of "ranges" and not solid percentages. Obama has shown himself to be in a somewhat stable net-negative range as of late, with some limited movement back and forth.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5836 on: August 24, 2010, 03:47:42 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.



Just curious.  It seems that recently there have been an even number of days showing Obama around 47-48% and those showing him around 44-45%. 

How come every day it goes a little up it must have just been a good Obama sample?  Isn't it just as easy for me to say today's sample is a BAD Obama sample? 

Over the last two months the low for Obama, which was due to a bad sample, was 41% in approve.  The high was 49%.  Based on that, I generally refer to approval rates at 47%-49% and 41%-43% as probably good and bad samples, respectively, unless they stay around for more than three days. 

In other words, every little down is a bad Obama sample.  I'm saying he's staying stable.

I would note that when Obama was at 43% approval (about 10 days ago), I said "bad Obama sample."

Perhaps I should ask why you only ask the question after the good sample moves through the numbers, and not when a bad sample drops out?
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Jbrase
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« Reply #5837 on: August 24, 2010, 04:48:49 pm »

MO & FL


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Apocrypha
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« Reply #5838 on: August 24, 2010, 05:45:49 pm »

Wow, FL swung hard against Obama once more.

Might it have only been a bounce from cleaning up the spill?
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J. J.
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« Reply #5839 on: August 24, 2010, 06:04:46 pm »

Wow, FL swung hard against Obama once more.

Might it have only been a bounce from cleaning up the spill?

It just could have been a really skewed poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5840 on: August 25, 2010, 08:24:45 am »

Illinois Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 23, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

35% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       40% Strongly disapprove
         0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  146
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 122
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 29
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 184



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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J. J.
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« Reply #5841 on: August 25, 2010, 08:35:14 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +2.

In range, but the disapprove numbers are near the upper end of the range.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #5842 on: August 25, 2010, 09:56:33 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.



Just curious.  It seems that recently there have been an even number of days showing Obama around 47-48% and those showing him around 44-45%. 

How come every day it goes a little up it must have just been a good Obama sample?  Isn't it just as easy for me to say today's sample is a BAD Obama sample? 

Over the last two months the low for Obama, which was due to a bad sample, was 41% in approve.  The high was 49%.  Based on that, I generally refer to approval rates at 47%-49% and 41%-43% as probably good and bad samples, respectively, unless they stay around for more than three days. 

In other words, every little down is a bad Obama sample.  I'm saying he's staying stable.

I would note that when Obama was at 43% approval (about 10 days ago), I said "bad Obama sample."

Perhaps I should ask why you only ask the question after the good sample moves through the numbers, and not when a bad sample drops out?


Because the thread has become rather "hackish" at times.  I'm well aware of the mean and range of the numbers, I'm just wondering how you are interpreting it. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5843 on: August 25, 2010, 01:27:02 pm »

CA (Rasmussen): 55-43

WI (Rasmussen): 48-51
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« Reply #5844 on: August 25, 2010, 01:59:28 pm »

Because the thread has become rather "hackish" at times.  I'm well aware of the mean and range of the numbers, I'm just wondering how you are interpreting it. 

Dude, this thread is the definition of "hack."
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« Reply #5845 on: August 25, 2010, 02:17:30 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2010, 02:27:30 pm by MagneticFree »

my current prediction minus the midterm elections

Obama - 214
Opposition - 324

the light cannot be seen at the end of the tunnel, lol

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« Reply #5846 on: August 25, 2010, 02:30:49 pm »

42-51 in Gallup, down from 45-50 yesterday.  Either a really bad Obama sample has just entered the system, a really good one has just left, or (most likely) both.
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« Reply #5847 on: August 25, 2010, 03:17:16 pm »

CA & WI


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5848 on: August 25, 2010, 03:21:02 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2010, 06:55:57 pm by pbrower2a »

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

36% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
36% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure

Oregon Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
22% Somewhat approve
  5% Somewhat disapprove
42% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

Wisconsin State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
  5% Somewhat disapprove
46% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Utah State Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted August 23, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

 

19% Strongly approve

14% Somewhat approve

16% Somewhat disapprove

51% Strongly disapprove

  1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  146
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 111
white                        too close to call  26
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 29
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 184



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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« Reply #5849 on: August 25, 2010, 04:52:01 pm »

A prediction at this point it's kind of hard to do.... but I'm going to guess it ends up kind of like this.  



Obama 323 - 52%
Challenger 215 - 47%

Basically, the conservatives that went with him in 2008 are pushed away by now, costing him NC and IN.  He loses the big margins in the West and 9 EVs in the historically very anti-incumbant Colorado.  Other than that the economy SEEMS to be heading in the right direction and Obama is able to highlight the things he has been able to accomplish.  Not the victory he enjoyed in 2008, but since generally the country seems to be making progress we stick with him.  

(Not only that, but I'm predicting the GOP winds up with a candidate and campaign that's WAAAAAAAY too much to the right of the country as a whole)
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