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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014853 times)
Devilman88
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« Reply #6100 on: September 10, 2010, 11:48:01 am »

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:



I really don't see how Obama loses PA as well as an EV in ME, yet wins GA, MO, VA and it's too close to call in NC.  There's just no way this scenario is going to play out.

Nothing this guy does makes sense, he is just an Obama Hack who prays to him every night.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6101 on: September 10, 2010, 12:23:30 pm »

TX (PPP): 40-55

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_910.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6102 on: September 10, 2010, 01:54:42 pm »

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:



I really don't see how Obama loses PA as well as an EV in ME, yet wins GA, MO, VA and it's too close to call in NC.  There's just no way this scenario is going to play out.

A later map shows Obama losing Missouri.

It's just the order in which polls are taken. I can't believe that Pennsylvania would go for any Republican (yes, especially Rick Sanctimonious) in 2012... but so go the most recent polls.

I am predicting that Obama wins the popular vote if he begins with a nationwide approval rating in excess of 44% going into the campaign season. He is in fact very close to both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton at similar stages of their Presidencies. (He is also a bit farther away from Jimmy Carter, but at least President Obama  has some legislative achievements and can -- unlike Carter -- make new and credible promises in 2012 because of those legislative achievements).

President Obama can still lose, but he would have to have some catastrophic events  to which he responds badly. Mishandle a natural disaster, have a scandal blow up on him, experience an international debacle, or have a second phase of an economic downturn? All of those are still possible. Those all happen suddenly and without predictability.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6103 on: September 10, 2010, 02:04:16 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2010, 02:07:16 pm by pbrower2a »

Texas -- some interesting polls from PPP:


Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 55%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Bailey Hutchison’s  (R, TX) job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Q4 Do you think Kay Bailey Hutchison should run
for reelection in 2012?
Yes.................................................................. 36%
No ................................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Cornyn’s (R, TX) job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 37%
Disapprove...................................................... 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 30%

Q8 Do you think Texas should secede from the
United States?
Yes.................................................................. 15%
No ................................................................... 72%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

(Could be trouble for Rick Perry (R) if the Democratic opponent seizes it)

Q10 Looking back on George W. Bush’s time as
President would you rate his performance as
excellent, good, fair, or poor?
Excellent ......................................................... 9%
Good............................................................... 36%
Fair ................................................................. 23%
Poor ................................................................ 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

(not so great for a Favorite Son emeritus!)






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  153
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   52
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  119
white                        too close to call  17
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  55
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6104 on: September 10, 2010, 02:10:25 pm »

South Dakota Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted September 8, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

    23% Strongly approve

    16% Somewhat approve

    15% Somewhat disapprove

    46% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   52
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  119
white                        too close to call  17
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  52
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......




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StatesRights
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« Reply #6105 on: September 10, 2010, 02:53:44 pm »

15% of Texans are FF's apparently.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6106 on: September 10, 2010, 04:14:34 pm »


Indeed.  I would LOVE that state to just go be it's own country. 
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Penelope
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« Reply #6107 on: September 10, 2010, 04:45:08 pm »

Looks like Obama's poll numbers are going up a bit. See: West Virginia, Texas.
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Saff
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« Reply #6108 on: September 10, 2010, 05:03:45 pm »


Indeed.  I would LOVE that state to just go be it's own country. 

Um, pass.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6109 on: September 10, 2010, 05:21:51 pm »

Looks like Obama's poll numbers are going up a bit. See: West Virginia, Texas.

I don't know about WV, but PPP's sample in Texas actually was more favorable to Obama in 2008 than the state as a whole.  McCain only won 52% of the 2008 vote in this group
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6110 on: September 10, 2010, 05:27:51 pm »


Indeed.  I would LOVE that state to just go be it's own country. 
Austin can stay, the rest can leave.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6111 on: September 10, 2010, 09:20:12 pm »


Indeed.  I would LOVE that state to just go be it's own country. 
Austin can stay, the rest can leave.

San Antonio is fun, and Dallas is fairly sophisticated.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6112 on: September 11, 2010, 11:35:05 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, u.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, u.

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6113 on: September 11, 2010, 11:37:35 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, u.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, u.



Those strongly dissapprove numbers show that he has a very solid bloc of the country that would never, ever vote for him.  Moreso than Clinton and certainly moreso than Reagan.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6114 on: September 11, 2010, 11:51:59 am »

How early did polling companies start using strongly and somewhat wording?  Surely we could find data on Clinton and Bush.  What about the Ford-Carter-Reagan era?


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J. J.
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« Reply #6115 on: September 12, 2010, 05:55:32 am »

How early did polling companies start using strongly and somewhat wording?  Surely we could find data on Clinton and Bush.  What about the Ford-Carter-Reagan era?




It's Rasmussen and there not around in the 1970's early 1980's.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6116 on: September 12, 2010, 06:02:56 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, u.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, u.



Those strongly dissapprove numbers show that he has a very solid bloc of the country that would never, ever vote for him.  Moreso than Clinton and certainly moreso than Reagan.

Where the comparison can be made, i.e. on Gallup, Obama has been maintaining higher negatives than his predecessors in general.  While, at points, Obama's positives have been higher, his negatives have tended to be higher at the same time.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #6117 on: September 12, 2010, 09:44:30 am »

TX & SD


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #6118 on: September 12, 2010, 12:05:11 pm »
« Edited: September 12, 2010, 04:06:24 pm by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 54%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6119 on: September 12, 2010, 12:13:47 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 57%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.

103% ?

It´s 46-54 (+4, -3).

Gallup is at 46-46 (+2, -2) today.

Some wild swings lately ...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6120 on: September 12, 2010, 01:52:37 pm »

I'm loving the maps on this thread. Simply loving them.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6121 on: September 12, 2010, 01:54:13 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 57%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.

103% ?

It´s 46-54 (+4, -3).

Gallup is at 46-46 (+2, -2) today.

Some wild swings lately ...

Maybe something related to 9/11 remembrance?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6122 on: September 12, 2010, 02:36:31 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 57%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.

103% ?

It´s 46-54 (+4, -3).

Gallup is at 46-46 (+2, -2) today.

Some wild swings lately ...

Maybe something related to 9/11 remembrance?

9/11 is still a GOP "day". In view of the 9/12 Tea Party rallies, so is 9/12.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6123 on: September 12, 2010, 04:07:22 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 57%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.

103% ?

It´s 46-54 (+4, -3).

Gallup is at 46-46 (+2, -2) today.

Some wild swings lately ...

Thanks, I corrected it!   BYW, if anyone catches a mistake, I'll correct it.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6124 on: September 12, 2010, 05:29:07 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 57%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.

103% ?

It´s 46-54 (+4, -3).

Gallup is at 46-46 (+2, -2) today.

Some wild swings lately ...

Maybe something related to 9/11 remembrance?

9/11 is still a GOP "day". In view of the 9/12 Tea Party rallies, so is 9/12.

Hardly. 9/11 is an emotional day. Much more likely that Obama's approval goes up slightly in the wake of his speech.
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