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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016385 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6200 on: September 20, 2010, 10:06:03 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +1.

All numbers still in range.


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Jbrase
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« Reply #6201 on: September 20, 2010, 10:18:11 am »

Pa, FL, VT, OH, NH, DE, MA, WI, IN, MD, & NY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #6202 on: September 20, 2010, 10:28:52 am »

Did Rassy release a new VT poll that gave the same 63-37 approval as the last one they did like a few days ago? Uh?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6203 on: September 20, 2010, 11:50:58 am »

Did Rassy release a new VT poll that gave the same 63-37 approval as the last one they did like a few days ago? Uh?

They may have.
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« Reply #6204 on: September 20, 2010, 02:51:04 pm »

Did Rassy release a new VT poll that gave the same 63-37 approval as the last one they did like a few days ago? Uh?

They may have.

No, actually, after checking, you just reposted a poll that you yourself posted 4 days ago. Nice job.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6205 on: September 20, 2010, 03:09:16 pm »

Did Rassy release a new VT poll that gave the same 63-37 approval as the last one they did like a few days ago? Uh?

They may have.

No, actually, after checking, you just reposted a poll that you yourself posted 4 days ago. Nice job.

So I got it right twice.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6206 on: September 20, 2010, 05:52:16 pm »

Rhode Island State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 16, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

 

33% Strongly approve
27% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
30% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  159
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   61
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call  46
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......




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« Reply #6207 on: September 20, 2010, 07:50:15 pm »

West Virginia Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
18% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure
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StatesRights
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« Reply #6208 on: September 20, 2010, 11:56:14 pm »

West Virginia Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
18% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure


Yikes!
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J. J.
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« Reply #6209 on: September 21, 2010, 12:10:27 am »

West Virginia Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
18% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure


Yikes!

Yikes, indeed!

That is probably not recoverable.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6210 on: September 21, 2010, 01:58:04 am »

It wasn't recoverable the day after he was elected...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6211 on: September 21, 2010, 05:49:10 am »

NJ (Monmouth University):

801 Adults: 48-43
726 RV: 47-44

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP35_1.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6212 on: September 21, 2010, 07:21:48 am »

Alaska Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted September 19, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been

doing?

   

    21% Strongly approve
    21% Somewhat approve
      9% Somewhat disapprove
    50% Strongly disapprove

      0% Not sure







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  159
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   61
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 80
white                        too close to call  46
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   26
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......




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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6213 on: September 21, 2010, 08:58:21 am »

All I have to say is that there's seems to be quite a disconnect between the Northeast and the rest of the country when it comes to their opinion of the President. 

58% in New York, 56% in Maryland, 63% in Vermont, 60% in Rhode Island... all from the same polling company that has him at 44% nationally. Barack Obama would not be pulling that percentage of the vote in any of those states in 2012 if he only got 44% of the vote nationally (which is quite a beating). 

It's not a HUGE discrepancy, but it does seem that a lot of Obama's support seems to be quite disproportionally centered in the Northeast. 
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6214 on: September 21, 2010, 09:05:09 am »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/
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Dgov
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« Reply #6215 on: September 21, 2010, 09:09:43 am »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Yet Another set of polls where the Republicans are doing uniformly better with Young voters than with the state as a whole (O'Donnell only loses them 47-43 too).  It remains to be seen if either PPP or these other polls have the age breakdown correct.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6216 on: September 21, 2010, 09:10:57 am »

These state results from FOX would indicate that Obama is somewhere around 37-38% approval nationwide, where he isn't. He's between 44% and 47%.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #6217 on: September 21, 2010, 09:13:57 am »

Still no VA polls from any polling organization?
No VA statewide races this year so why would they poll statewide approval?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6218 on: September 21, 2010, 09:14:13 am »

CNBC/Public Opinion Strategies/Hart Research:

47% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39268766/
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6219 on: September 21, 2010, 10:04:26 am »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen. 
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5280
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« Reply #6220 on: September 21, 2010, 10:49:14 am »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen. 
Unfortunately for members on this forum, nothing should be taken seriously about this thread or Pbrower's predictions for 2012.  He skews them in his favor.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6221 on: September 21, 2010, 10:56:39 am »

These state results from FOX would indicate that Obama is somewhere around 37-38% approval nationwide, where he isn't. He's between 44% and 47%.

Rasmussen polled Alaska, a state that went as firmly against Obama in 2008 (59-39 McCain/Palin), and Obama had a 42% approval there. Scott Rasmussen has far less of an investment in the Tea Party Movement than does Newspeak* Corporation. Newspeak Corporation has a huge stake in the Hard Right, and it has chosen its own narrative.

Rasmussen's approval polls for President Obama have shown him with approvals between 42% and 48% all summer. Polls that fit a specialized narrative and nothing else are best given due respect for their worth, which isn't much.

*Note the Orwell reference!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6222 on: September 21, 2010, 12:12:43 pm »
« Edited: September 21, 2010, 03:19:50 pm by pbrower2a »

Michigan Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  159
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   61
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 80
white                        too close to call  46
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   26
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6223 on: September 21, 2010, 12:22:13 pm »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen. 
Unfortunately for members on this forum, nothing should be taken seriously about this thread or Pbrower's predictions for 2012.  He skews them in his favor.

I look at the numbers in my own way, this is just a nice place to go since all the polls are in one place.

Rasmussen surely have the best idea of where the country is, but when they do a poll specifically to be shown on Fox News, which in my mind is not a news organization, I don't really pay attention to it.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6224 on: September 21, 2010, 01:23:18 pm »
« Edited: September 21, 2010, 01:31:20 pm by Sodium Chloride with Dave Leip »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen.  
Unfortunately for members on this forum, nothing should be taken seriously about this thread or Pbrower's predictions for 2012.  He skews them in his favor.

I look at the numbers in my own way, this is just a nice place to go since all the polls are in one place.

Rasmussen surely have the best idea of where the country is, but when they do a poll specifically to be shown on Fox News, which in my mind is not a news organization, I don't really pay attention to it.

Are you bothered that statistical analysis of past Fox News polls doesn't back up your claim at all?


...thanks.
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