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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1002731 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #6375 on: October 01, 2010, 08:34:12 am »

(I tried using the quote button to respond to pbrower's post about how things will be different in 2012, blah blah blah, but I guess the post was too long, and it was a pain in the arse trying to type a response to it.....Huh)

Anyway....Things might be different in 2012, but I highly doubt it.  The economy shows absolutely no signs of improvement any time in the near future and I really don't see any way that it's going to make a sudden recovery in time for the election.  It may be *somewhat* better, but things will still be bad enough to cause problems for Obama.  And come 2012, he will no longer be able to blame everything on Bush.  That excuse will finally be put to rest as this will be seen, rightfully so, as Obama's economy (and also, Obama's wars, which will also plague him--warS because combat operations are NOT over in Iraq).  He will have to answer for all of it, rather than push the blame on somebody else.  I believe his approval ratings will be in the low 40s, or high 30s by November 2012.

Glad to see you can view things with a clear head Clay. kudos
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J. J.
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« Reply #6376 on: October 01, 2010, 08:44:33 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, u.

I would say that Obama is rallying his base a bit, but not by a lot.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6377 on: October 01, 2010, 09:06:28 am »

I love it how everyone seems to know exactly how 2012 will pan-out...

Going by Gallup at this point he's level with Clinton and 2% ahead of Reagan at the same points in their presidencies... I'm sure people had written their political eulogies in 1982 and 1994... a lot can change... it might not... but it certainly can.

While his 'personal' approval remains in the 50s, there's always room for goodwill and positive movement.

I actually think his increased public exposure, rallying crowds and starting to get the message out.. has affected the numbers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's scraping 50% by Nov.... I also wouldn't be surprised if he's where he is now.

Plus, if the Reps commit political suicide, Obama just need to be more palatable than them...
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6378 on: October 01, 2010, 10:40:55 am »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best. 

     This really needed to be said. Calling random Democrats socialists & random Republicans fascists was dead wrong back when Gore Vidal did it to William F. Buckley & it's still dead wrong today.

You have seen a greater attempt under Obama, with the auto bailouts, to increase the government role in the private sector.  And in that case you cannot make the argument it was there to stabilize a broken infrastructure (unlike TARP).

This is government INVESTMENT in private business, not OWNERSHIP.  Therefore, it is not socialism, or communism, or whatever.  I mean, almost immediately people were complaining about what the auto executives were doing with that money.  Had the government came in and told them exactly what to do with the bailout money half the country would go into a "omgz we're socialists!" panic.  You can't win. 

The kind of federal stimulus that has been going on doesn't even really compare with the complete remaking of the economy that happened under FDR.  Did THAT turn us into a communist country?  No, not at all, it only strengthened the conditions for capitalism to become more effective for more people.  Certainly the New Deal introduced a couple SOCIALIST ideas into the United States, but was that a bad thing?  Shouldn't we evaluate what works for our country rather than sh*tting all over anything and everything that could be called "socialist"? 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6379 on: October 01, 2010, 10:42:57 am »



Things will be very different in November 2012. One will be the economy -- probably better because President Obama greatly harmed the economy.

Another will be that if we see GOP will support fiscal responsibility, unlike 2002-06 and individual freedom. We will also see if those efforts fall to Obama's veto pen.




This is what I can't stand!  What amount of influence do you think ONE MAN in ONE BRANCH of government has on the biggest economy of the planet.  President Obama greatly harmed the economy?  Do you believe that? 
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J. J.
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« Reply #6380 on: October 01, 2010, 10:46:52 am »



Things will be very different in November 2012. One will be the economy -- probably better because President Obama greatly harmed the economy.

Another will be that if we see GOP will support fiscal responsibility, unlike 2002-06 and individual freedom. We will also see if those efforts fall to Obama's veto pen.




This is what I can't stand!  What amount of influence do you think ONE MAN in ONE BRANCH of government has on the biggest economy of the planet.  President Obama greatly harmed the economy?  Do you believe that? 

Absolutely.  He could have declined to advocate the "stimulus," opposed it directly, or used his veto pen, for that matter.

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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6381 on: October 01, 2010, 12:16:54 pm »

His "personal approval" is not over 50%.

And asking for his "personal approval" after asking about his approval rating is misleading.  You are essentially prompting people to make a different response and treat "persoanl approval" as different from "approval."
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6382 on: October 01, 2010, 01:00:39 pm »



Things will be very different in November 2012. One will be the economy -- probably better because President Obama greatly harmed the economy.

Another will be that if we see GOP will support fiscal responsibility, unlike 2002-06 and individual freedom. We will also see if those efforts fall to Obama's veto pen.




This is what I can't stand!  What amount of influence do you think ONE MAN in ONE BRANCH of government has on the biggest economy of the planet.  President Obama greatly harmed the economy?  Do you believe that? 

Absolutely.  He could have declined to advocate the "stimulus," opposed it directly, or used his veto pen, for that matter.



Economic stimulus is what we need right now.  You're not going to see the effects of it immediately, or even maybe for a couple years.  We tried letting the free market solve all our problems and look where that got us. 
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6383 on: October 01, 2010, 01:15:12 pm »

I love how Rasmussen broke Pbrower's heart.  Way to go Ras!

Real heartbreak would come from the Tea Party Movement achieving power in America and establishing a perverse syncretism of absolute plutocracy with Christian Protestant fundamentalism.

Looking at socialist authoritarian alternative we have with Obama, we can only hope so.

Can we settle down, children?  There will be no theocracy with the Tea Party or socialist authoritarianism with Obama.  Do either of you know ANYTHING about the United States?  The differences between the two parties in America in the grand scheme of things is minimal at best. 

     This really needed to be said. Calling random Democrats socialists & random Republicans fascists was dead wrong back when Gore Vidal did it to William F. Buckley & it's still dead wrong today.

You have seen a greater attempt under Obama, with the auto bailouts, to increase the government role in the private sector.  And in that case you cannot make the argument it was there to stabilize a broken infrastructure (unlike TARP).

     Which is still a far cry from socialism. In other words, if you were to express the government's economic policy in terms of how far it is from socialism, Obama moved us from 25 miles away to 24 miles away. Obama leans a bit more towards socialism than many other Presidents (wouldn't really notice that based on what he has managed so far), but that is very different from actually being socialist.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6384 on: October 01, 2010, 01:36:13 pm »

(Ras) NM: 50-49
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Penelope
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« Reply #6385 on: October 01, 2010, 04:44:59 pm »

Added Minnesota and New Mexico



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6386 on: October 01, 2010, 07:02:37 pm »

What is this "personal approval" thing you guys are talking about?  I think the phrase you're after is "favorability rating".
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6387 on: October 01, 2010, 08:22:27 pm »

I do mean favourability, but personal rating vs job rating...

I would love to know what the alternative to the stimulus should have been.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6388 on: October 01, 2010, 08:35:01 pm »



Things will be very different in November 2012. One will be the economy -- probably better because President Obama greatly harmed the economy.

Another will be that if we see GOP will support fiscal responsibility, unlike 2002-06 and individual freedom. We will also see if those efforts fall to Obama's veto pen.




Why would the economy be better because Obama harmed it?  That makes no sense.

Also, anything Republicans pass in the House will likely die in the Senate. 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6389 on: October 01, 2010, 09:39:32 pm »

Whatever you call it, he's not at 50% as you claimed if you look at averages.  You have huge disparities in favorability but since averages are the chic thing to do, we might as well look at averages.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6390 on: October 01, 2010, 09:48:52 pm »

Fwiw, pollster.com has Obama 45.3%/50.5% approve/disapprove, and 48.4%/43.9% favorable/unfavorable, from a regression fit to all polls:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/06/jobapproval-obama_n_726319.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/05/fav-obama_n_726774.html
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6391 on: October 01, 2010, 10:40:54 pm »

Apologies, the last favourable number I saw was 54/40 - and it wasn't that long ago...
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6392 on: October 01, 2010, 10:50:27 pm »

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6393 on: October 01, 2010, 11:04:05 pm »

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.

I think there is a difference.

You can have a favourable opinion of someone, but not approve of the way they're handling the job. It's interesting, it's rarely the other way in the US.

It seems people can separate liking them as a person, from the job they do... but not consider them doing a good job but disliking them... which is what I felt for Kevin Rudd... I actually felt he was doing a good job, but I didn't like him very much...
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6394 on: October 01, 2010, 11:11:28 pm »

I understand there's a difference but the way it's asked about in polls seems to create that distinction.
I think it's hard to poll both questions in the same poll.  Doing so creates a prompt in my opinion.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6395 on: October 01, 2010, 11:22:52 pm »

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.

I think there is a difference.

You can have a favourable opinion of someone, but not approve of the way they're handling the job. It's interesting, it's rarely the other way in the US.

It did happen in the later years of the Clinton White House.  People thought he was scum in his personal life, but did a good job as president.  So his job approval was higher than his favorability.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6396 on: October 01, 2010, 11:33:43 pm »

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.

I think there is a difference.

You can have a favourable opinion of someone, but not approve of the way they're handling the job. It's interesting, it's rarely the other way in the US.

It did happen in the later years of the Clinton White House.  People thought he was scum in his personal life, but did a good job as president.  So his job approval was higher than his favorability.



Good point...
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #6397 on: October 02, 2010, 01:17:20 am »

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.

I think there is a difference.

You can have a favourable opinion of someone, but not approve of the way they're handling the job. It's interesting, it's rarely the other way in the US.

It seems people can separate liking them as a person, from the job they do... but not consider them doing a good job but disliking them... which is what I felt for Kevin Rudd... I actually felt he was doing a good job, but I didn't like him very much...

I think Bill Clinton's approvals outran his favorability during most of his second term.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6398 on: October 02, 2010, 09:28:46 am »

Update for end of August 2010 (unless something changes greatly in the last couple of days):

All State Polls:  46% Approve (nc), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (nc), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  44% Approve (-2), 50% Disapprove (+1)

Need to recorrect slightly...  Last changes will come through tomorrow.

All State Polls:  45% Approve (-1), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 46% Approve (-1), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve (-1), 50% Disapprove (+1)

For September.  I have narrowed the selection of polls for my average down to July, August and September.  The Fox News polls are included in all state polls, but no other group.  Numbers-wise, I don't think they'd change anything.

All State Polls:  44% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (uc), 52% Disapprove (uc)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (+1), 52% Disapprove (-1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  43% Approve (-2), 52% Disapprove (+2)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6399 on: October 02, 2010, 09:52:40 am »



Spade's favorite map creation - this is one of the more important maps I have that says a lot of 2010 (and possibly beyond).  It also says a lot about the Obama power base.
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