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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022834 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6450 on: October 09, 2010, 12:35:31 pm »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%,.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6451 on: October 09, 2010, 12:39:36 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Very stable, but Obama has had a slight medium term improvement.

The state polls don't reflect any improvement, btw, but then again, they always said approval numbers of 46-47 vs. 52-53 disapprove, even last month.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6452 on: October 09, 2010, 03:29:50 pm »

Gallup 47/46

First time he's been positive in their rankings in a long time.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6453 on: October 09, 2010, 04:10:07 pm »

I think he was positive a week and a half ago in Gallup.
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change08
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« Reply #6454 on: October 09, 2010, 04:34:33 pm »

I think he was positive a week and a half ago in Gallup.

I checked on Pollster. Mid-September was the earliest I noticed.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6455 on: October 09, 2010, 04:50:00 pm »

Gallup 47/46

First time he's been positive in their rankings in a long time.

He was positive in Late July - it's only been a few months, not too long.

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J. J.
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« Reply #6456 on: October 09, 2010, 05:13:04 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Very stable, but Obama has had a slight medium term improvement.

The state polls don't reflect any improvement, btw, but then again, they always said approval numbers of 46-47 vs. 52-53 disapprove, even last month.

I'm basically talking about a 2-3 month improvement.  These numbers are certainly an improvement off the lows.

And yes, there was more recent positive Gallup numbers.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6457 on: October 09, 2010, 06:54:29 pm »

Wrong Odysseus...see the post right above yours.  Thanks for playing though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6458 on: October 10, 2010, 08:45:24 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #6459 on: October 10, 2010, 10:19:59 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

Is it possible for him to actually hit 50 without it being a bad sample?
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J. J.
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« Reply #6460 on: October 10, 2010, 10:28:28 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

Is it possible for him to actually hit 50 without it being a bad sample?

The pattern that has developed is approval, high 40's, disapproval low 50's.  The last time, within the last month, Obama hit 50, he couldn't hold it.

If he holds these number for 2-3 more days, it becomes real movement and not noise.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6461 on: October 10, 2010, 10:31:04 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

Is it possible for him to actually hit 50 without it being a bad sample?

Yes. If it hits 50 then his improvement will continue rising, and the current bad trend we've had over the past few months will switch over to positive 50s, negative 40s. We're not going to stay below the fifties forever (as much as our GOP friends would love you to believe the opposite). Right now, somewhat ironically, Obama's own approval graph looks remarkably similar to Reagan's.
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Zarn
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« Reply #6462 on: October 10, 2010, 11:47:51 am »

It's campaign season, it will not simply continue going up. People need a reason to actually changes their minds.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6463 on: October 10, 2010, 12:15:47 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

Is it possible for him to actually hit 50 without it being a bad sample?

The pattern that has developed is approval, high 40's, disapproval low 50's.  The last time, within the last month, Obama hit 50, he couldn't hold it.

If he holds these number for 2-3 more days, it becomes real movement and not noise.

I don't encourage extrapolation. Day-to-day movements typically prove to be noise. It has been a while since the President has had approval ratings in the low forties, which may be more significant.

It could have more immediate effects in some Congressional races. Election 2010 is hardly set in stone, but the current pitch of the GOP and its front groups (Club for Growth, American Crossroads, Americans for Prosperity)is. The Hard Right have been savaging President Obama and any Democratic candidate who has any alignment with him. Running against President Obama may have been attractive in August and September, but it could become a trap for some right-wingers.

It might be too late for a political implosion by the Hard Right in 2010.  It is not too late for the rescue of some Democratic nominees for the House and Senate to save themselves without suddenly becoming conservatives (which would be a political catastrophe for themselves and their campaigns). Strange things have happened in sporting events -- like teams being down 0-3 in post-season play and coming back to win best-of-seven championship series. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6464 on: October 10, 2010, 12:16:23 pm »

Gallup is 48-46 today (+1, nc)
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6465 on: October 10, 2010, 12:36:54 pm »

What Rasmussen may be doing is trying to get the Democrat Party and liberals to cite his polling showing improvement in order to discredit them.  When Obama falls again, he can point to how the Democrat Party and liberals were willing to cite his polls when he showed Obama improvement.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6466 on: October 10, 2010, 01:38:58 pm »

What Rasmussen may be doing is trying to get the Democrat Party (sic) and liberals to cite his polling showing improvement in order to discredit them.  When Obama falls again, he can point to how the Democrat Party and liberals were willing to cite his polls when he showed Obama improvement.

That would not work. It is impossible to predict whether the bandwagon effect or complacency is more powerful. But at that, non-Rasmussen polls have shown some races getting much closer.

Polling is a tricky business, but interpreting polls is even trickier.

It could be that Democrats are running against some of the more outrageous statements of high-profile Republicans, including some candidates for Governor (Carl Paladino in New York) and US Senate (Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, Christine O'Donnell). Such is so in some Congressional races, too. Some stealth campaigns may be exposed as such.

Congressional representatives have typically represented their districts; shadowy right-wing groups  have tried to "buy" districts so that a heavily-agricultural district might become the political property of, for example, the oil industry even if the district has no more than average involvement with the oil industry. Likewise states.

People don't want higher taxes for themselves and generally don't care about how high taxes go on super-rich people to whom they have little connection. Most people don't want Social Security privatized, and they don't want lower wages. Politicians associated with toxic causes are often defeated.

That's one interpretation. The other is of course that the Tea Party Movement is convincing Americans that they can trust tycoons, executives, and executives more than they can trust liberal politicians. Perhaps people are beginning to recognize that their ultimate self-interest is in creating wealth without asking how the wealth is used irrespective of the personal consequences. Perhaps the loud repetition of right wing propaganda gives it the ring of truth.

Are people rational actors or are they gullible robots? Such remains a philosophical question beyond any convincing answer.

...Rasmussen usually gets the results... late, and then correct. Should the Democrats have perhaps a 50-46-4 split of the Senate (before one counts Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats and tries to figure what victorious Senators Crist and Murkowski are) and a bare Democratic hold of the House, then  Scott Rasmussen will explain very rationally how things got that way.  if you want a sports analogy, then consider the baseball team that loses despite having a 7-2 lead going into the seventh inning. It could be luck, but it could also be that the losing team has a staff of aging starters losing their durability to pitch later into the game and poor relief pitchers, and that the winning team has great bench players.

Everything is up for scrutiny in a political campaign -- including finances, associations, and even driving records. (Do not trivialize the danger of driving 51 in a 25 zone in an electoral campaign; a 25 zone is often a school zone in which speeding might kill a child!)  As Jack Webb droned on in his monotonous rendition of a suspect's Miranda rights to a criminal suspect in the 1960s series Dragnet, "anything you say can and will be used against you in a court of law". A Republican who says that he supports repeal of the minimum wage, privatization of Social Security, or a new tax structure that lightens burdens upon the super-rich while increasing them on the working poor can expect such statements turned against him by the Democrats. Since they have used "voted with President Obama" frequently as an attack, the converse is no less valid.    If President Obama finds approval ratings near 50% nationwide, even the appeal "voted 92% of the time with President Obama" might not resonate so favorably toward Republican nominees in the more average districts as it did when approval ratings for the President were closer to 45%.

 

 

   
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6467 on: October 10, 2010, 02:53:20 pm »

Michigan:

http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/political/exclusive-poll%3A-large-lead-for-snyder-over-bernero-michigan-governor

47/47 favorable/unfavorable

He won Michigan with 57% of the vote.
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Zarn
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« Reply #6468 on: October 10, 2010, 02:56:31 pm »

First, your Rasmussen comment makes no sense. Pollsters jobs are to get results, not stories.

Second, favorables are meaningless.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6469 on: October 10, 2010, 03:21:48 pm »

It was tongue in cheek.  The Democrat Party citing to Rasmussen for the Obama surge is one of the funnier things this election cycle besides watching moderate Republicans fail miserably.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #6470 on: October 10, 2010, 03:33:30 pm »

Obama isn't in the Democrat party though, so why would they cite Rass to support him.
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Zarn
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« Reply #6471 on: October 10, 2010, 04:50:27 pm »

Democratic
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6472 on: October 10, 2010, 04:59:39 pm »


Approval rating and the proportion of the vote you get against a specific opponent don't have that specific a correlation.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6473 on: October 11, 2010, 02:00:16 am »


In an electorate that is 15% more Republican than on Election Day 2008.

So his favorables would basically be the same as in 2008 ...
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6474 on: October 11, 2010, 02:23:10 am »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.
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