Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 07, 2019, 01:29:52 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 255 256 257 258 259 [260] 261 262 263 264 265 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022459 times)
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,116
Bangladesh


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6475 on: October 11, 2010, 02:47:21 am »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Thailand certainly has shifted since the fall of Abhisit, but that's benefited the Democrats, not hurt them.
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,839
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6476 on: October 11, 2010, 02:52:21 am »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Thailand certainly has shifted since the fall of Abhisit, but that's benefited the Democrats, not hurt them.

     I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,315
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6477 on: October 11, 2010, 02:55:58 am »

I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.

Opebo is like family to Tender Branson.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,952
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6478 on: October 11, 2010, 08:46:55 am »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Thailand certainly has shifted since the fall of Abhisit, but that's benefited the Democrats, not hurt them.

     I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.

My post has nothing to do with "spinning the 2010 election".

Itīs more about the 2012 election. Just because this year there are fewer Democrats turning out, it doesnīt mean at all that the electorate has shifted in the last 2 years. To the contrary, there has almost been no change in party identification in the last 2 years, check some of the registration figures below. Democrats are just sitting it out this year, but thereīs a good enough chance that once the Republican Presidential joke is coming out of the primary, they will turn out en masse again. Itīs the silent majority and they will be reactivated by the Obama campaign in Mid-2012.

As for the registration numbers:

California

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/60day-gen-10/hist-reg-stats.pdf

(The number of Republicans there has dropped to record lows)

In Florida, Democrats still have a 600.000 advantage over the Republicans, about the same as it was in 2008.

And so on ...

Thereīs no indicator that the registered electorate has changed the way for example Rasmussen wants to tell us it has ...
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6479 on: October 11, 2010, 09:00:23 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.



I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

As expected.

Obama, however, has improved a bit since mid September.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6480 on: October 11, 2010, 09:05:20 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

Is it possible for him to actually hit 50 without it being a bad sample?

The pattern that has developed is approval, high 40's, disapproval low 50's.  The last time, within the last month, Obama hit 50, he couldn't hold it.

If he holds these number for 2-3 more days, it becomes real movement and not noise.

I don't encourage extrapolation. Day-to-day movements typically prove to be noise. It has been a while since the President has had approval ratings in the low forties, which may be more significant.



Actually, this comment is right, as we can see from today's numbers.

Personally, I look for trends longer than three days.  We've seen a short term (three day) increase where a pro-Obama sample probably dropped out. 

Longer term, over several weeks, we've seen Obama's numbers improve.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,654


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6481 on: October 11, 2010, 09:17:53 am »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Thailand certainly has shifted since the fall of Abhisit, but that's benefited the Democrats, not hurt them.

     I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.

My post has nothing to do with "spinning the 2010 election".

Itīs more about the 2012 election. Just because this year there are fewer Democrats turning out, it doesnīt mean at all that the electorate has shifted in the last 2 years. To the contrary, there has almost been no change in party identification in the last 2 years, check some of the registration figures below. Democrats are just sitting it out this year, but thereīs a good enough chance that once the Republican Presidential joke is coming out of the primary, they will turn out en masse again. Itīs the silent majority and they will be reactivated by the Obama campaign in Mid-2012.

As for the registration numbers:

California

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/60day-gen-10/hist-reg-stats.pdf

(The number of Republicans there has dropped to record lows)

In Florida, Democrats still have a 600.000 advantage over the Republicans, about the same as it was in 2008.

And so on ...

Thereīs no indicator that the registered electorate has changed the way for example Rasmussen wants to tell us it has ...

And there 's no real indicator which says that the registered electorate in any way follows the identifying electorate - party ID in the US tends to be a rather strange and fluid thing.

Besides, Rasmussen's larger partisan trends merely says that any shifts have occurred from less Democratic ID and more Independent ID, not more Republican ID.
Logged
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6482 on: October 11, 2010, 12:17:22 pm »

Party registration tells you nothing.  Party identification is what is key. There are plenty of registered democrats that identify with the Republican Party and would vote for the Republican nominee.

Meanwhile, he's at 46/48 in today's Gallup.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,245
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6483 on: October 11, 2010, 01:12:57 pm »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.
No; the reason why the Democratic Party lost will be because such unusual numbers of Republicanarians showed up.

This is not to say that minorish shifts haven't occurred since 2008. They probably have. That's just a "return to normalcy" thing.
Logged
Dgov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6484 on: October 11, 2010, 01:51:11 pm »

This is not to say that minorish shifts haven't occurred since 2008. They probably have. That's just a "return to normalcy" thing.

Um, the "Return to Normalcy" campaign had the GOP winning almost 70% Majorities in the House, and picking up every single Senate seat outside of the Solid South.  It's actually a relatively good comparison
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,513
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6485 on: October 11, 2010, 03:27:34 pm »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Not likely. The Tea Party has largely taken its support almost entirely from Republicans. It is simply louder.

One might expect a shift toward the Republicans if there were a shift  in America -- let us say a rapid growth in the Mormon or Fundamentalist Christian population. The former may be happening mostly in places that Democrats have no chance in which to win, but the latter just isn't happening.

The people with economic interests identical with those of the economic royalists of our time is not a growing group; it is largely an exclusive club. Racists? The KKK isn't growing, which would be one symptom of a growing racist movement. Programmatic racism is probably on the decline.

What has happened is that the Hard Right has thrown far more money into its loud campaign as a concerted attack on anything that violates the semi-feudal dreams of the American economic elite.
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,839
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6486 on: October 12, 2010, 03:09:13 am »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Thailand certainly has shifted since the fall of Abhisit, but that's benefited the Democrats, not hurt them.

     I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.

My post has nothing to do with "spinning the 2010 election".

Itīs more about the 2012 election. Just because this year there are fewer Democrats turning out, it doesnīt mean at all that the electorate has shifted in the last 2 years. To the contrary, there has almost been no change in party identification in the last 2 years, check some of the registration figures below. Democrats are just sitting it out this year, but thereīs a good enough chance that once the Republican Presidential joke is coming out of the primary, they will turn out en masse again. Itīs the silent majority and they will be reactivated by the Obama campaign in Mid-2012.

As for the registration numbers:

California

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/60day-gen-10/hist-reg-stats.pdf

(The number of Republicans there has dropped to record lows)

In Florida, Democrats still have a 600.000 advantage over the Republicans, about the same as it was in 2008.

And so on ...

Thereīs no indicator that the registered electorate has changed the way for example Rasmussen wants to tell us it has ...

     ...I didn't say you were spinning the 2010 election.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6487 on: October 12, 2010, 05:00:52 am »

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Thailand certainly has shifted since the fall of Abhisit, but that's benefited the Democrats, not hurt them.

     I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.

My post has nothing to do with "spinning the 2010 election".

Itīs more about the 2012 election. Just because this year there are fewer Democrats turning out, it doesnīt mean at all that the electorate has shifted in the last 2 years. To the contrary, there has almost been no change in party identification in the last 2 years, check some of the registration figures below. Democrats are just sitting it out this year, but thereīs a good enough chance that once the Republican Presidential joke is coming out of the primary, they will turn out en masse again. Itīs the silent majority and they will be reactivated by the Obama campaign in Mid-2012.

As for the registration numbers:

California

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/60day-gen-10/hist-reg-stats.pdf

(The number of Republicans there has dropped to record lows)

In Florida, Democrats still have a 600.000 advantage over the Republicans, about the same as it was in 2008.

And so on ...

Thereīs no indicator that the registered electorate has changed the way for example Rasmussen wants to tell us it has ...

     ...I didn't say you were spinning the 2010 election.

Stop spinning!!! Spinning the idea that you were accusing him of spinning into not accusing him of spinning... are you serious?

You cannot help yourself, can you?

I suggest you join Spinners Anonymous.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6488 on: October 12, 2010, 09:38:13 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.


The Strongly Approve number has been mega stable, not moving out of a 4point range in the last five weeks.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6489 on: October 13, 2010, 08:46:21 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


This could be a very anti-Obama sample coming into the system.  Strongly Approved is at low end of where it has ranged since the second week of September.
Logged
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6490 on: October 13, 2010, 09:38:20 am »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,654


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6491 on: October 13, 2010, 09:42:11 am »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Logged
Yelnoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,012
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6492 on: October 13, 2010, 03:56:27 pm »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,839
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6493 on: October 13, 2010, 04:35:52 pm »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.
Logged
Yelnoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,012
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6494 on: October 13, 2010, 04:38:35 pm »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.
That sucks.  I wonder who would pay just for poll data (unless that was related to your job)?
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,839
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6495 on: October 13, 2010, 05:47:55 pm »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.
That sucks.  I wonder who would pay just for poll data (unless that was related to your job)?

     Sam Spade, evidently. Tongue
Logged
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6496 on: October 13, 2010, 06:07:53 pm »

CNN/Opinion Research among registered voters

Delaware: 56/38
Washington: 47/46
West Virginia: 30/63
Wisconsin: 45/51
Logged
Poundingtherock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6497 on: October 13, 2010, 09:51:51 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2010, 10:13:02 am by Dave Leip »

Reuters/Ipsos: 43/53

Link

GOp up 4 on the generic ballot.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,513
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6498 on: October 13, 2010, 11:52:13 pm »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

Precisely.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6499 on: October 14, 2010, 08:44:49 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +2.

This the lowest Approve number in the last three weeks, and it is below the Strongly Disapprove number.  It may be a bad sample however; if so, it should drop out on Saturday.

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 255 256 257 258 259 [260] 261 262 263 264 265 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC