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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1027055 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6600 on: October 26, 2010, 08:37:49 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #6601 on: October 26, 2010, 08:52:58 am »

Obama's numbers were a bit higher at this point last year, before the election.  It was not a good year for Democrats.
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change08
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« Reply #6602 on: October 26, 2010, 08:57:05 am »

Obama's numbers were a bit higher at this point last year, before the election.  It was not a good year for Democrats.

Judging by NJ and VA, yes it was a bad year. Democrats did well in the house special elections though and they defied expectations (but still lost) in NYC.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6603 on: October 26, 2010, 09:08:46 am »

Obama's numbers were a bit higher at this point last year, before the election.  It was not a good year for Democrats.

Judging by NJ and VA, yes it was a bad year. Democrats did well in the house special elections though and they defied expectations (but still lost) in NYC.

Well, NYC was a competition between a Liberal and a kind-of Liberal, so I don't know if that counts.  November was also when the GOP won in Nassau and Westchester, so it's not like the GOP lagged much in New York.

Anyway, Democratic turnout will probably be better than last year, but that's probably offset by Obama's roughly 7-point drop in the polls from then.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6604 on: October 26, 2010, 09:12:36 am »

Obama's numbers were a bit higher at this point last year, before the election.  It was not a good year for Democrats.

Judging by NJ and VA, yes it was a bad year. Democrats did well in the house special elections though and they defied expectations (but still lost) in NYC.

I said "not a good year for Democrats," but not a disaster either.

I think in PA, one incumbent Republican at the county level lost (and I contributed to his opponent).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6605 on: October 26, 2010, 10:11:29 am »

Obama's numbers were a bit higher at this point last year, before the election.  It was not a good year for Democrats.

I wouldn't read too much into NJ and VA, period.  They both went D in 2001 when Bush had ~90% approval.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #6606 on: October 26, 2010, 12:09:13 pm »

Gallup:

Approve - 43% (NC)
Disapprove - 49% (+1)
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WillK
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« Reply #6607 on: October 26, 2010, 12:51:45 pm »

Gallup:

Approve - 43% (NC)
Disapprove - 49% (+1)

I have been phone polled several times in the last week -- a new experience for me.  It has shown to me a flaw in the Approve/Disapprove stat: the question completely lacks any connection to why. 

Each time I was polled I answered Disapprove because I am disappointed in Obama.  I am disappointed in him for being too moderate on healthcare, stimulus, war, financial reform.  But my disapproval does not translate into opportunity for the Republicans.  Match Obama against any Republican, and I would pick Obama every time. 
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6608 on: October 26, 2010, 04:56:58 pm »

Obama at 37%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FINALLY!!!!!


harrisinteractive
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change08
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« Reply #6609 on: October 26, 2010, 05:37:40 pm »

Obama at 37%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FINALLY!!!!!


harrisinteractive

LOL, an "interactive" poll.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6610 on: October 27, 2010, 12:59:25 am »

Among registered voters

SurveyUSA-North Carolina
http://www.wral.com/asset/news/local/politics/2010/10/26/8514186/WRAL_News_poll_Oct._26_2010_.PDF


Obama: 34/54 favorable/unfavorable

That comes out to a favorable rating of 36% nationally
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J. J.
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« Reply #6611 on: October 27, 2010, 11:35:15 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +2.



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Penelope
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« Reply #6612 on: October 27, 2010, 01:56:06 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2010, 03:47:46 pm by Odysseus »

Added Polls:

SurveyUSA (NC)
34/54 Oct. 26
PPP (CO)
43/53 Oct. 25
PPP (KY)
34/61 Oct. 26
Muhlenburg College (PA)
41/52 Oct. 27





Key:


Below 40%: 60% Red
40-44% Approval: 40% Red  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
50%: 10% Yellow (really white)
50-55%: 30% Green
56-59%: 60% Green

60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Out-dated poll = 30% Orange

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December


IF OBAMA WAS ON THE BALLOT:

(this year, Obama versus Republican Front-runner)

 

               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 102
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin 99
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 15
white                        too close to call  109
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  5
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  50
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  164  

------
Total Obama 215
Total Romney 214

Toss Up 109
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6613 on: October 27, 2010, 03:56:05 pm »

It's like christmas when Obama's approval ratings come in:

Among registered voters for CNN:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/10/27/topstate8.pdf

Nevada: 44/52
Colorado: 44/51
Penn: 46/47
California: 54/40
Kentucky: 36/58
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6614 on: October 27, 2010, 06:44:11 pm »

Poundintherock why do you take thRV numbers???
LV are much more important
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J. J.
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« Reply #6615 on: October 27, 2010, 07:06:58 pm »

Poundintherock why do you take thRV numbers???
LV are much more important

A week before the election, likely voters are hugely more important.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6616 on: October 27, 2010, 07:32:19 pm »

Because I'm trying to show how much Obama is struggling by citing to registered voters because of the Democrat Party narrative about that the reason why Obama's numbers are so low is because his voters are getting screened out by tight likely voter samples.
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« Reply #6617 on: October 27, 2010, 07:38:07 pm »

Because I'm trying to show how much Obama is struggling by citing to registered voters because of the Democrat Party narrative about that the reason why Obama's numbers are so low is because his voters are getting screened out by tight likely voter samples.

Again, why is a Thai political party so concerned by Obama's approval ratings?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6618 on: October 27, 2010, 07:56:31 pm »

In case you haven't figured it out, I don't respect the "Democratic Party" [sic].  Therefore, I refer to it with a pejorative term.

CBS/NY Times has Obama at 31/42 favorable/unfavorable among independents.  Will the left continue to try and claim that independents only disapprove of Obama but like him personally?  CBS/NY Times is a pretty favorable pollster for Obama.  The sample includes 13% more  Obama voters than McCain voters and 9% more Democrats than Republicans.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/27/politics/main6997687.shtml?tag=contentMain
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6619 on: October 27, 2010, 08:02:23 pm »

I've decided to rename 'Poundingtherock' 'floggingthedeadhorse'
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« Reply #6620 on: October 27, 2010, 08:09:47 pm »

In case you haven't figured it out, I don't respect the "Democratic Party" [sic].  Therefore, I refer to it with a pejorative term.

wOw ur so cool!!!11

Go get yourself a candy bar, buster.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6621 on: October 27, 2010, 11:01:56 pm »

Just for comparison:

George W. Bush's favorable rating in the final CBS/NY Times poll taken right before the 2004 election was 48/42

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/12/politics/main3362530.shtml

So Obama's polling behind Bush in favorability right now, two years before his prospective re-election.  Two years after Bush posted a 48/42 favorable/unfavorable, he was down to 34/52.

The problem for Obama is that Obama is not polling well enough personally after only two years in office.  He hasn't even experienced the inevitable decline since most voters say they don't blame him primarily for the economic decline.  They have decided to dislike him personally even without blaming him.
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WillK
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« Reply #6622 on: October 27, 2010, 11:13:52 pm »

Just for comparison:

George W. Bush's favorable rating in the final CBS/NY Times poll taken right before the 2004 election was 48/42

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/12/politics/main3362530.shtml

So Obama's polling behind Bush in favorability right now, two years before his prospective re-election.  Two years after Bush posted a 48/42 favorable/unfavorable, he was down to 34/52.

The problem for Obama is that Obama is not polling well enough personally after only two years in office.  He hasn't even experienced the inevitable decline since most voters say they don't blame him primarily for the economic decline.  They have decided to dislike him personally even without blaming him.

Compare Obama's polling with Reagan's. 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6623 on: October 27, 2010, 11:29:15 pm »

The "compare Obama's ratings to Reagan's" logic is ridiculous.  Why?  Because if Obama's ratings were high right now, I could just say "compare Obama's ratings to George H.W. Bush's ratings."  The logic would be that since Obama's ratings are just as high Bush I's ratings, he'll lose re-election.   You'd find that logic laughable and rightly so.
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WillK
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« Reply #6624 on: October 27, 2010, 11:43:05 pm »

The "compare Obama's ratings to Reagan's" logic is ridiculous.  Why?  Because if Obama's ratings were high right now, I could just say "compare Obama's ratings to George H.W. Bush's ratings."  The logic would be that since Obama's ratings are just as high Bush I's ratings, he'll lose re-election.   You'd find that logic laughable and rightly so.

What you have just pointed out is the stupidity of your own initial post. 
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