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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1026188 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #6825 on: November 29, 2010, 11:25:45 pm »

Fresh poll for New Jersey, and any old one is now irrelevant (Fairleigh-Dickinson):

For now, President Barack Obama is ahead in the Garden State: With the heat of the midterm elections behind voters, 51% approve of the president and 40% disapprove, up from 47%-43% in October’s run-up to the mid-term elections.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/njprez101129/

Related to Senator Menendez:

Sen. Menendez Enters New Election Cycle
With one more national election behind him, U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez now faces one ahead — his own. And according to the most recent statewide poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, 31% of his New Jersey constituency have a favorable opinion of him and 25% have an unfavorable opinion. Another 44% either are unsure (29%) or haven’t heard of him at all (15%).


(Huh)





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow 
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow 
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 72
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 21
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6826 on: November 29, 2010, 11:34:10 pm »

Yes - right now it's a tossup race in Kansas!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6827 on: November 29, 2010, 11:40:47 pm »

It's job approval, not a match up...
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6828 on: November 29, 2010, 11:46:22 pm »


I'm referring to the above uberhack's "current projection of the 2010 presidential election."
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6829 on: November 29, 2010, 11:54:18 pm »


I'm referring to the above uberhack's "current projection of the 2010 presidential election."

My mistake, apologies.

I do find it such a pointless exercise to extrapolate a job performance rating to somehow be a strong indicator of electoral success, especially since elections are a determination between two people, not necessarily to do with a person's job performance.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6830 on: November 29, 2010, 11:56:22 pm »

Yes - right now it's a tossup race in Kansas!

I'm not sure that a 44% approval rating for President Obama is legitimate, but at that level he would probably defeat any GOP nominee who is a poor match for Kansas  -- like Palin or Barbour. Thune would probably do very well there, Romney and Hickabee sort of OK
there.  At this stage and this early the state could be the equivalent in 2012 of Indiana in 2008.  Of course it is also possible that the Detroit Losers Football Team could  win the 2013 Super Bowl.

Maybe the propaganda machine of the GOP/ Crossroads GPS/ Freedom Works took Kansas for granted and saw no need to demonize anything liberal there.

Kansas used to be a state of moderate Republicans -- Bob Dole and Nancy Kassebaum.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6831 on: November 30, 2010, 12:07:05 am »

Fresh poll for New Jersey, and any old one is now irrelevant

not how things work, but go on
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6832 on: November 30, 2010, 12:37:19 am »

Kansas just chose Jerry Moran, who is as conservative as they come, to be its new Senator, by the small margin of 44.1 points.  Sam Brownback won the governorship by a mere 31.3%.

Anyone who thinks that Kansas could even theoretically be close if the GOP nominee were Christine O'Donnell is a complete hack.  If you have a poll that looks like a very obvious outlier, you can use your discretion to ignore it.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6833 on: November 30, 2010, 02:09:46 am »

Ha! They're still playing the "We can take Kansas" game? Wow! I remember that one from 2008. It didn't work out so well then. I have a hunch it won't happen in 2012 either.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6834 on: November 30, 2010, 02:13:01 am »

Ha! They're still playing the "We can take Kansas" game? Wow! I remember that one from 2008. It didn't work out so well then. I have a hunch it won't happen in 2012 either.

Only people on crack thought that Kansas was in play in 2008.

The closest Obama came to McCain was in Mid-February 2008, after he had a winning streak in the primaries and even then Obama was down by 8 points.
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jfern
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« Reply #6835 on: November 30, 2010, 02:21:43 am »

Ha! They're still playing the "We can take Kansas" game? Wow! I remember that one from 2008. It didn't work out so well then. I have a hunch it won't happen in 2012 either.

Only people on crack thought that Kansas was in play in 2008.

The closest Obama came to McCain was in Mid-February 2008, after he had a winning streak in the primaries and even then Obama was down by 8 points.

What about that crazy talk about Obama having a chance at a Nebraska elector? Oh, wait....
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6836 on: November 30, 2010, 02:25:24 am »

Ha! They're still playing the "We can take Kansas" game? Wow! I remember that one from 2008. It didn't work out so well then. I have a hunch it won't happen in 2012 either.

Only people on crack thought that Kansas was in play in 2008.

The closest Obama came to McCain was in Mid-February 2008, after he had a winning streak in the primaries and even then Obama was down by 8 points.

What about that crazy talk about Obama having a chance at a Nebraska elector? Oh, wait....

There´s a big difference between KS as a whole and the NE district he won: Polls indicated all the way that he was down by more than or close to 20 in KS, but that he had at least a shot to win the NE district.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6837 on: November 30, 2010, 10:39:46 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6838 on: December 01, 2010, 11:03:19 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6839 on: December 01, 2010, 06:01:47 pm »



Missouri Survey Results (PPP)

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow 
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow 
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 72
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 32
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.




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Zarn
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« Reply #6840 on: December 01, 2010, 06:37:38 pm »

That Menendez poll seems way off. There is no way 44% are unsure with people who haven't even heard of him.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6841 on: December 01, 2010, 06:45:44 pm »

MO is and will not be even close in 2012!!!
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J. J.
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« Reply #6842 on: December 02, 2010, 10:23:20 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -3.

Looking at these rather strange numbers, I suspect a really bad sample.  The 22% Strongly Disapproved is tied for Obama's lowest rating.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6843 on: December 02, 2010, 02:48:24 pm »

PPP will be doing Michigan and Minnesota next week.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6844 on: December 03, 2010, 01:34:59 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

Still strange.
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Ritchie Valens
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« Reply #6845 on: December 03, 2010, 02:19:39 pm »

We'll see if these new unemployment numbers send the President's approval rating lower or not in the coming days.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6846 on: December 03, 2010, 06:44:41 pm »
« Edited: December 04, 2010, 04:31:51 pm by pbrower2a »

Massachusetts Survey Results (PPP)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1203424.pdf

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 55%
Disapprove...................................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 57%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 33%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 57%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 33%
Undecided....................................................... 10%


Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 61%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 32%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 52%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 36%
Barack Obama................................................ 58%
Someone Else/Don't Remember..................... 7%






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,    3              
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 80
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 32
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.





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J. J.
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« Reply #6847 on: December 04, 2010, 03:45:32 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If this is a bad sample, we should know by tomorrow or Monday.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6848 on: December 04, 2010, 05:24:37 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If this is a bad sample, we should know by tomorrow or Monday.

I believe this is real.  Unemployment plus WikiLeaks would be enough to do this IMO.
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Zarn
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« Reply #6849 on: December 04, 2010, 06:27:09 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If this is a bad sample, we should know by tomorrow or Monday.

I believe this is real.  Unemployment plus WikiLeaks would be enough to do this IMO.

Gallup was going the other way.
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