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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1026735 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6850 on: December 04, 2010, 07:12:34 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If this is a bad sample, we should know by tomorrow or Monday.

I believe this is real.  Unemployment plus WikiLeaks would be enough to do this IMO.

The Thursday numbers were really strange, which kind of leads me to think it is a skewed sample.  It will take through today to drop out.  If there are still bad numbers Monday, it isn't a bad sample.

The unemployment numbers didn't come out until yesterday, so it isn't directly related to that.
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« Reply #6851 on: December 05, 2010, 04:28:47 am »

Seems like his numbers are staying consistant recently, no drastic changes.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6852 on: December 05, 2010, 05:43:44 am »

Seems like his numbers are staying consistant recently, no drastic changes.

Well, Obama's numbers were off his summer lows.  The last three days were back to those lows.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6853 on: December 05, 2010, 08:08:57 am »

I think a lot of the approval change also has to do with the changed partisan makeup in November, according to Rasmussen's new sample.

The October sample was: 33.4% R   36.3% D   30.3% I

The November sample is: 36.0% R   34.7% D   29.3% I

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
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Zarn
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« Reply #6854 on: December 05, 2010, 08:45:51 am »

I think a lot of the approval change also has to do with the changed partisan makeup in November, according to Rasmussen's new sample.

The October sample was: 33.4% R   36.3% D   30.3% I

The November sample is: 36.0% R   34.7% D   29.3% I

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Right, but if people feel more Republican, of course they aren't going to like Obama.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6855 on: December 05, 2010, 08:55:46 am »

Well, today the numbers are:

46% (+3) Approve (26% Strongly Approve, +4)
54%  (-2) Disapprove (42% Strongly Disapprove, +1)
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J. J.
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« Reply #6856 on: December 05, 2010, 09:34:10 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +3.

Disapprove 54%, -2. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +4.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

Yes, a bad sample dropped out.

There might be a slight Obama loss since 11/30/10.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6857 on: December 05, 2010, 02:17:57 pm »

Gallup shows 48% approval and 43% disapproval today.

That is the best score for Obama since Mid-July.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6858 on: December 05, 2010, 05:33:23 pm »

weekend poll
every weekend he is going up!!
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Sbane
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« Reply #6859 on: December 05, 2010, 11:03:41 pm »

weekend poll
every weekend he is going up!!

Why is a weekend poll biased? Or are you implying it's the week day polls that are biased? Could it be that these movements are just random and within the margin of error?
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J. J.
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« Reply #6860 on: December 06, 2010, 03:02:11 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #6861 on: December 07, 2010, 09:48:36 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 52%, -1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6862 on: December 07, 2010, 01:45:42 pm »

PPP, Michigan

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_1207930.pdf

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obamaís job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Matchups:

Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 52%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 37%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 56%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 35%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Snyder, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Snyder .................................................... 38%
Undecided....................................................... 14%

...Mitt Romney is the only Republican anywhere close to having an apparent chance in Michigan. Rick Snyder has yet to face the economic mess that Michigan has -- if he succeeds at turning "Michigrim" into the Michigan Miracle,  then he could imaginably win the Presidency in 2016. But to win Michigan he would have to steer clear of the Hard Right. Southern reactionaries are not going to win the electoral votes of Michigan for a long time.

Rick Snyder would not be strong enough to win Michigan as a VP candidate by himself. So much for the Rust belt turning on President Obama.

...PPP had a poll on Minnesota, but that one, so far, involves whether the Republican  nominee for Governor should pack it in and concede defeat.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow 
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow 
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 72
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  41
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 32
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.





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J. J.
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« Reply #6863 on: December 08, 2010, 09:47:26 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6864 on: December 08, 2010, 11:41:27 am »

For what it is worth, Senator Amy Klobuchar looks very safe in Minnesota:

Minnesota Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Frankenís job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobucharís job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 59%
Disapprove...................................................... 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Michelle Bachmann is poison in any statewide race:


Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable........................................................ 37%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Michelle Bachmann will energize the Hard Right nationwide, but any Republican who attaches himself or herself to her rides a dead horse into quicksand. I'm going to guess that Sarah Palin is crass enough and Newt Gingrich is amoral enough to do so, but nothing is said about approval of President Obama in Minnesota in the Minnesota polls by PPP except that "President Obama could use Senator Klobuchar's coattails".

If I were to hazard a guess, then I would figure that as in Michigan, no Southern reactionary is going to win Minnesota for a very long time. Heck, Ronald Reagan lost this state twice -- and it was the only state that he lost in 1984, and Reagan had no regional weaknesses as a candidate. Mitt Romney might fare better than anyone else as a GOP nominee, but likely still lose Minnesota in a close election nationwide. Minnesota is much like Michigan in its politics except that Michigan has more blacks and more exposure to the auto industry. I don't have a poll for Minnesota and President Obama, so Minnesota remains gray on my maps for now.


You see it here first: Amy Klobuchar could well be the next President of the United States.


That is 2016, which is a long way off. But who else would you bet on? She could be the third person not a WASP male to be President (JFK and Obama are the first two).   
 
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6865 on: December 08, 2010, 12:02:25 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2010, 04:08:47 pm by Joementum »

I bet we'll see a drop this week from deflated support on the left.

EDIT: Even before the tax cuts deal, arguably the most unpopular with thing he has done as far as the base is concerned, I think about 20% of those disapproving said they felt so because he wasn't liberal enough.  That number will shoot up this week.  He may fall below 40% approval in the wake of this.
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CJK
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« Reply #6866 on: December 08, 2010, 04:04:11 pm »

Obama approval rating November 2010 (Gallup)

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 52/36 (November 1978)

Reagan: 43/47 (November 1982)

Bush I: 58/32 (November 1990)

Clinton: 45/48 (November 1994)

Bush II: 66/28 (November 2002)

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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6867 on: December 08, 2010, 04:18:27 pm »

For what it is worth, Senator Amy Klobuchar looks very safe in Minnesota:

Minnesota Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Frankenís job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobucharís job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 59%
Disapprove...................................................... 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Michelle Bachmann is poison in any statewide race:


Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable........................................................ 37%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Michelle Bachmann will energize the Hard Right nationwide, but any Republican who attaches himself or herself to her rides a dead horse into quicksand. I'm going to guess that Sarah Palin is crass enough and Newt Gingrich is amoral enough to do so, but nothing is said about approval of President Obama in Minnesota in the Minnesota polls by PPP except that "President Obama could use Senator Klobuchar's coattails".

If I were to hazard a guess, then I would figure that as in Michigan, no Southern reactionary is going to win Minnesota for a very long time. Heck, Ronald Reagan lost this state twice -- and it was the only state that he lost in 1984, and Reagan had no regional weaknesses as a candidate. Mitt Romney might fare better than anyone else as a GOP nominee, but likely still lose Minnesota in a close election nationwide. Minnesota is much like Michigan in its politics except that Michigan has more blacks and more exposure to the auto industry. I don't have a poll for Minnesota and President Obama, so Minnesota remains gray on my maps for now.


You see it here first: Amy Klobuchar could well be the next President of the United States.


That is 2016, which is a long way off. But who else would you bet on? She could be the third person not a WASP male to be President (JFK and Obama are the first two).   
 

Agree on Klobuchar.  Gillibrand is also a good bet to run and do well.  And I don't necessarily think splitting the female vote would be all that big an effect since they are a majority of the electorate and we're just about at the point where almost all men would be willing to vote for a woman for president.  So I could even see a scenario where those two are the two last women standing.  And as I wrote once in the long-term trends thread, I think people are underestimating the chance of the Democratic ticket in 2016 being both women.  Intuitively that feels like a big step, but I bet voters would accept it much easier than people think.

I also think Franken is woefully under-apprectiated up there.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6868 on: December 08, 2010, 04:23:54 pm »

Agree on Klobuchar.  Gillibrand is also a good bet to run and do well.

I honestly find Gillibrand pretty underwhelming.  Klobuchar, sure.  I could see her run for president at some point.  But Gillibrand?  Is there anything more there than the fact that she's a young female Senator from New York?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6869 on: December 08, 2010, 05:34:24 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2010, 05:55:08 pm by pbrower2a »

Minnesota, PPP.... Obama job approval 49% with lesser disapproval (46%).

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obamaís job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 49%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%


Romney is in range in the event that things go badly for the President:


Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%
Undecided....................................................... 10%


but other candidates  would do about as well as John McCain did at best against President Obama:

 
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 38%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 40%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 54%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 36%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Including the soon-to-be-former governor:


Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 43%
Undecided....................................................... 6%






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 72
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   51
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 32
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6870 on: December 08, 2010, 06:13:51 pm »

I bet we'll see a drop this week from deflated support on the left.

EDIT: Even before the tax cuts deal, arguably the most unpopular with thing he has done as far as the base is concerned, I think about 20% of those disapproving said they felt so because he wasn't liberal enough.  That number will shoot up this week.  He may fall below 40% approval in the wake of this.

I don't think so.  This plan is, so far anyway, relatively popular, and Obama getting some visible distance between him and Liberal Democrats will probably help his image.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145109/Americans-Support-Major-Elements-Tax-Compromise.aspx
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6871 on: December 08, 2010, 06:42:45 pm »

Ya, I think Gillibrand benefits from being in Hillary's seat, the biggest media market and a fundraising talent.  I'm guessing based on frustrations with Obama that someone particularly scrappy might fare well in a primary.  And I do think there will be Democrats first elected in 2012 who garner considerable 2016 buzz as Obama did it in 4 years and the Christie buzz.  Maybe just a product of the internet world.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6872 on: December 08, 2010, 08:00:50 pm »

I bet we'll see a drop this week from deflated support on the left.

EDIT: Even before the tax cuts deal, arguably the most unpopular with thing he has done as far as the base is concerned, I think about 20% of those disapproving said they felt so because he wasn't liberal enough.  That number will shoot up this week.  He may fall below 40% approval in the wake of this.

I don't think so.  This plan is, so far anyway, relatively popular, and Obama getting some visible distance between him and Liberal Democrats will probably help his image.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145109/Americans-Support-Major-Elements-Tax-Compromise.aspx

Andrew Sullivan agrees with you.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/12/winning-back-the-independents-.html
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6873 on: December 08, 2010, 08:20:35 pm »

Sullivan's analysis is completely wrong.

Nobody does well by taking on the "left" or the "right" in a non-primary setting.  What indies seem to hate more than anything is conflict and that's what it appears Obama is creating.  So the interpretation that indies have for the middle isn't actually for moderate positions but rather the perception that there is no conflict.

However, there is a different dynamic at play in a primary setting.  It helps you dramatically to be running against someone viewed to your political extreme in a primary.  The problem for Obama is that indies won't view it that way outside a political campaign.  They view it as "even Democrats think he's falling apart, so he must be bad" rather than "he's willing to take on the Democrat Party."

We'll see what the Gallup tracking poll and Rasmussen daily tracking polls show the next couple days.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6874 on: December 08, 2010, 08:25:25 pm »

Klobuchar and Gillibrand are two talentless hacks from blue states that can in no way be won by any Republican in a one-on-one matchup.  Pawlenty woould have never left the hockey rink without third party liberals in Minnesota.  It is impossible for a Republican to win statewide in either NY or MN.

The Democrat Party, if it were intelligent, would instead rally around people like Joe Manchin, not people like Klobuchar and Gillibrand who do not have to do anything to win re-election.
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