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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1027178 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #6925 on: December 20, 2010, 10:59:25 am »
« edited: December 20, 2010, 06:09:19 pm by J. J. »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +3.

Disapprove 50%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -4.

Probably a good Obama sample entered, yesterday.
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Sbane
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« Reply #6926 on: December 20, 2010, 02:46:43 pm »





Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +3.

Disapprove 50%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -4.

Probably a good Obama sample entered, yesterday.

And yet the strongly approve numbers don't move above 23. There has definitely been some movement and there is less polarization in the approval of the President.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6927 on: December 20, 2010, 05:51:00 pm »

The heat of the electoral campaign has passed, and it is now down to specific legislation.

Interesting things will happen after the 112th Congress commences. If the GOP majority acts much like GOP majorities in the House since 1994 (and I see no reason to expect otherwise except for more polarizing statements by Republicans) then approval ratings for President Obama could rise by default. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #6928 on: December 20, 2010, 06:10:27 pm »





Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +3.

Disapprove 50%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -4.

Probably a good Obama sample entered, yesterday.

And yet the strongly approve numbers don't move above 23. There has definitely been some movement and there is less polarization in the approval of the President.

I think it just might be a skewed good Obama sample.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6929 on: December 20, 2010, 06:16:49 pm »
« Edited: December 22, 2010, 01:02:20 am by pbrower2a »

Florida, PPP:

45% approval, 49% approval

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Florida is of course one of the states that any Republican nominee absolutely must win to have a chance. Enough such states (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) as 50-50 toss-ups, give the Republicans one chance in 32 of winning the election.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 83
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   67
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 37
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 73
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.




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J. J.
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« Reply #6930 on: December 21, 2010, 11:05:17 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

Highestt Approve number since 3/14/10; I strongly suspect a skewed pro-Obama sample.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6931 on: December 21, 2010, 12:59:13 pm »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6932 on: December 21, 2010, 08:44:33 pm »

Don't get too excited Joe.  Gallup has him at 46/48
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6933 on: December 22, 2010, 12:05:40 am »

Don't get too excited Joe.  Gallup has him at 46/48

Hardly bad numbers all things considered.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6934 on: December 22, 2010, 01:09:48 am »

Look at all the genuine tossups -- but all in states that the Republicans all must win to have a reasonable chance. I'm not sure that Kansas is a legitimate tossup, but otherwise everything in white is an obvious must-win for the Republicans.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow 
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow 
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 83
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  66
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 37
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 73
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


I have just altered the electoral votes predicted for Missouri and New York (which will both  lose one) and Texas and Florida, both of which will gain one more than the earlier model had predicted. Totals have been changed.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6935 on: December 22, 2010, 04:34:49 am »
« Edited: December 22, 2010, 04:36:40 am by Odysseus »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

Highestt Approve number since 3/14/10; I strongly suspect a skewed pro-Obama sample.

Considering that he has passed more successful major legislation than he has in several months, and all in the lame duck session, I'd say this is not too far out of range for the President. If we consider the possibility that Rasmussen may not be hitting as many of the disenchanted liberals as Gallup is, I'd say that a 4 or 5 point gap could reasonably exist between the two pollsters.  

Since November, Obama's Democratic Approval has dropped from 83% to 79% - a four point margin which could explain the drop in Gallup, but the rise in Rasmussen.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6936 on: December 22, 2010, 09:46:04 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -2.

Disapprove 51%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +2.

There still might be a pro-Obama daily in there.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6937 on: December 22, 2010, 09:47:59 am »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6938 on: December 22, 2010, 09:55:39 am »





Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +3.

Disapprove 50%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -4.

Probably a good Obama sample entered, yesterday.

And yet the strongly approve numbers don't move above 23. There has definitely been some movement and there is less polarization in the approval of the President.

Well, had the been real movement, we should have seen that number go up, or hold.



Considering that he has passed more successful major legislation than he has in several months, and all in the lame duck session, I'd say this is not too far out of range for the President. If we consider the possibility that Rasmussen may not be hitting as many of the disenchanted liberals as Gallup is, I'd say that a 4 or 5 point gap could reasonably exist between the two pollsters. 

Since November, Obama's Democratic Approval has dropped from 83% to 79% - a four point margin which could explain the drop in Gallup, but the rise in Rasmussen.

Which should have moved all numbers and shouldn't have just started on Monday.

I just won't to be too gleeful if there is a big drop in Obama's numbers by Christmas.
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anvi
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« Reply #6939 on: December 22, 2010, 10:16:47 am »

Looks like the approval of moderates/independents has seen a slight uptick during the Lame Duck.  CNN has it climbing from 55 to 60%

http://www.npr.org/2010/12/21/132235761/obama-do-you-like-me-yet
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Penelope
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« Reply #6940 on: December 22, 2010, 10:21:04 am »
« Edited: December 22, 2010, 10:23:57 am by Odysseus »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6941 on: December 22, 2010, 10:46:47 am »

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...Huckabee would win North Carolina but lose Ohio, so simply exchange the states if Huckabee should be the Republican nominee. Everyone else loses both North Carolina and Ohio (and probably Virginia and Florida) to Obama.

Georgia would be interesting.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow 
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow 
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                   
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 83
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  66
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 52
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 57
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

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Zarn
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« Reply #6942 on: December 22, 2010, 11:02:04 am »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.



Gallup is a bouncy poll. It swings a lot.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6943 on: December 22, 2010, 11:11:34 am »

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.



Gallup is a bouncy poll. It swings a lot.

This is, unfortunately, sometimes true. However, Gallup is the only sufficiently accurate poll that gives as much information as it does without charging me for it.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6944 on: December 22, 2010, 08:27:41 pm »

Harris Pollster has Obama at 36% for December
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6945 on: December 22, 2010, 08:32:52 pm »

Harris Pollster has Obama at 36% for December


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PR
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« Reply #6946 on: December 23, 2010, 02:25:10 am »

Question: Does anyone else suppose that Oregon has a lower current approval rating of Obama than Washington and California because he's not liberal enough for them?

I know that many Democrats and liberals are angry or otherwise frustrated with Obama.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #6947 on: December 23, 2010, 02:59:18 am »

Question: Does anyone else suppose that Oregon has a lower current approval rating of Obama than Washington and California because he's not liberal enough for them?

I know that many Democrats and liberals are angry or otherwise frustrated with Obama.

I don't think so, Oregon is marginally more moderate than Washington or California. Though I would say that Oregon if anything is more 'independent' in their politics, they just don't quite fit as well into the whole left vs right debate.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6948 on: December 23, 2010, 09:12:28 am »

Harris Pollster has Obama at 36% for December

Wasn't that an Internet poll?
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Zarn
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« Reply #6949 on: December 23, 2010, 09:36:29 am »

Question: Does anyone else suppose that Oregon has a lower current approval rating of Obama than Washington and California because he's not liberal enough for them?

I know that many Democrats and liberals are angry or otherwise frustrated with Obama.

Oregon has a lower percentage of Dem leaners...
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