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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1027186 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7475 on: March 02, 2011, 03:24:26 pm »


The guys that run SurveyUSA sure do their best to destroy whatever credibility they still have after the 2010 debacle.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7476 on: March 02, 2011, 06:56:32 pm »

Tennessee (Middle Tennessee State University):

39% Approve
52% Disapprove

Poll interviews were conducted by telephone Feb. 14 26, 2011 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 589 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such as question wording, also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are greater for sample subgroups.

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Spring2011report1.pdf

I can't read the link. There's no indication of any screen of voters, so I can't use it until I see what sort of voters are identified.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7477 on: March 03, 2011, 12:09:58 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If this in a bad sample it should drop out over the weekend.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7478 on: March 03, 2011, 05:48:36 pm »

Quinnipia: 46/46

45/47 deserves re-election

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quinnipiac.edu%2Fx1295.xml%3FReleaseID%3D1563&h=e4b24
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7479 on: March 03, 2011, 06:41:15 pm »

PPP, Wisconsin:

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Morning Call/Muhlenberg College, Pennsylvania:

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  




[/quote]
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7480 on: March 04, 2011, 01:22:18 am »

We need a new Michigan poll that actually asks for "Approve/Disapprove", not the crappy "Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor" ...
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« Reply #7481 on: March 04, 2011, 09:37:52 am »

Obama average approval rating February 2011 (Gallup)

47% Approve

44% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 40/44 (February 1979)

Reagan: 40/50 (February 1983)

Bush I: 80/15 (February 1991)

Clinton: 46/46 (February 1995)

Bush II: 59/36 (February 2003)
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J. J.
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« Reply #7482 on: March 04, 2011, 09:48:30 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7483 on: March 04, 2011, 12:24:44 pm »

Wisconsin (Rasmussen):

55% Approve, well actually "favorable" but it doesn't make sense - Rasmussen has never polled Obama's favorables in a state so far, only approvals - so I think they made a typo.

(Gov. Walker)

43% Approve
57% Disapprove

73% of Wisconsin Republicans approve of the job Walker is doing. 89% of the state's Democrats and 56% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties disapprove.

The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on March 2, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/wisconsin_governor_walker_43_approval_rating
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7484 on: March 04, 2011, 01:09:39 pm »
« Edited: March 04, 2011, 02:08:56 pm by pbrower2a »


Wisconsin (Rasmussen):

55% Approve, well actually "favorable" but it doesn't make sense - Rasmussen has never polled Obama's favorables in a state so far, only approvals - so I think they made a typo.

(Gov. Walker)

43% Approve
57% Disapprove

73% of Wisconsin Republicans approve of the job Walker is doing. 89% of the state's Democrats and 56% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties disapprove.

The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on March 2, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/wisconsin_governor_walker_43_approval_rating

I'm going to accept that 'favorably' is a typo because Rasmussen then uses this language:

Quote
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Rasmussen may not be perfect, but he doesn't ordinarily muddle language.

The PPP and Rasmussen polls are about a week apart, and the Rasmussen poll is the first March poll. I am chary of averaging polls between months. I happen to like Rasmussen because of fewer undecided voters, and approval ratings in a state with such fast-changing political realities as Wisconsin are fluid in the extreme. Wisconsin is unique these days.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   87
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   87
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  




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J. J.
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« Reply #7485 on: March 05, 2011, 02:18:48 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7486 on: March 05, 2011, 02:59:47 pm »

Gallup National Approval

Approve - 47%, +2

Dissaprove - 44%, -2

Other/Not Sure - 9%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I'm beginning to wonder if Rasmussen just lumps all the "Not Sure" answers in with the Dissaproval percentage.
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« Reply #7487 on: March 06, 2011, 12:10:51 am »

Gallup National Approval

Approve - 47%, +2

Dissaprove - 44%, -2

Other/Not Sure - 9%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I'm beginning to wonder if Rasmussen just lumps all the "Not Sure" answers in with the Dissaproval percentage.

different criteria
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« Reply #7488 on: March 06, 2011, 12:27:00 am »

Wow, Rassmussen isn't trying to spin for Walker? Color me a tad surprised.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7489 on: March 06, 2011, 01:35:57 am »

WI (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

(Scott Walker)

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/WPRI-Toplines-030311.pdf
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« Reply #7490 on: March 06, 2011, 02:20:43 am »

WI (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

(Scott Walker)

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/WPRI-Toplines-030311.pdf

Interesting . .  the Walker favorable numbers are the same as the approval numbers, but less strong.

Also, His plan overall is a bit more favorable than he is (46-51), and different wording yields wildly different results on collective bargaining.  The Democratic-spin one is 32-58, while the Republican spin one is 47-50.

Also interesting is that the "Compromise" plan is about as unfavorable than that, at 36-60.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7491 on: March 06, 2011, 02:30:51 am »

WPRI doesn't poll very often, they had Obama winning against McCain by 6 in August 2008.

In 2006, they showed Doyle winning by 5.

They also had Bush ahead of Kerry by 10, just after the 2004 GOP convention.

In 2000, they had Bush ahead of Gore by 6 in Mid-July.
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« Reply #7492 on: March 06, 2011, 02:38:37 am »

Wow, Rassmussen isn't trying to spin for Walker? Color me a tad surprised.

Scott Rasmussen must know a lost cause when he sees it, and not only when someone has bad polling numbers.

Scott Walker can thank his lucky stars that the prank phone call wasn't an FBI sting, because if it were, then he would be in deep trouble.   You can bet that every move that he makes is now under the scrutiny of the Department of Justice for either violations of civil rights or various forms of corruption. This is without precedent in American history; consequences are hard to predict.  It's hard to predict how a Governor behaves when he has the federal attention typical of an Imperial Wizard, a Mafia capo, or the head of an outlaw biker gang.

Governor Walker's poll numbers are the least of his problems now. If you think that the protests were large on chilly days in Wisconsin, then just think of what they can be like in the summer, when teachers have their summer breaks.

WI (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

(Scott Walker)

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/WPRI-Toplines-030311.pdf

...nothing to change my map, but plenty to give me cause for confidence on the Rasmussen poll.

 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7493 on: March 06, 2011, 03:10:25 am »

Wow, Rassmussen isn't trying to spin for Walker? Color me a tad surprised.

Scott Rasmussen must know a lost cause when he sees it, and not only when someone has bad polling numbers.

Scott Walker can thank his lucky stars that the prank phone call wasn't an FBI sting, because if it were, then he would be in deep trouble.   You can bet that every move that he makes is now under the scrutiny of the Department of Justice for either violations of civil rights or various forms of corruption. This is without precedent in American history; consequences are hard to predict.  It's hard to predict how a Governor behaves when he has the federal attention typical of an Imperial Wizard, a Mafia capo, or the head of an outlaw biker gang.

Governor Walker's poll numbers are the least of his problems now. If you think that the protests were large on chilly days in Wisconsin, then just think of what they can be like in the summer, when teachers have their summer breaks.

WI (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

(Scott Walker)

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/WPRI-Toplines-030311.pdf

...nothing to change my map, but plenty to give me cause for confidence on the Rasmussen poll.

 

It seems the Walker-hatred is growing day by day in Wisconsin:

GQR/AFL-CIO (Feb. 16-20): 44-50
GQR/AFL-CIO (Feb. 19-20): 41-51
PPP (Feb. 24-27): 46-52
WPRI (Feb. 27-March 1): 43-54
Rasmussen (March 2): 43-57
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #7494 on: March 06, 2011, 11:35:18 am »

The Wisconsin fiasco seems to be helping Democrats in the state.  I wonder if this effect will help Obama and the Democrats across the entire region.  I would say that completely depends on whether or not it is resurrected as an issue in the 2012 campaign.... if not it will be completely out of peoples' minds by then. 
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« Reply #7495 on: March 06, 2011, 12:26:51 pm »

The Wisconsin fiasco seems to be helping Democrats in the state.  I wonder if this effect will help Obama and the Democrats across the entire region.  I would say that completely depends on whether or not it is resurrected as an issue in the 2012 campaign.... if not it will be completely out of peoples' minds by then. 


You can trust that Big Labor will keep bringing it up. The only state that Wisconsin borders that has voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1992 is Iowa (barely in 2004).

How large is the 'region'? Indiana is separated from Wisconsin only by Greater Chicago. No Republican can win without it. Missouri was a bare McCain state in 2008. Get Big Labor active, and it is a possible Obama pickup. Ohio? Probably the definitive bellwether state. No way do the Republicans win without it. 

Scott Walker has turned upon the occupational group that only fools would turn upon: teachers. Teachers are everywhere. They are smart, they organize easily, and they are generally recognized as working people. They are generally able to get their point across to most people (if they couldn't, then they would be doing something else), and they are often in civic groups and church groups as leaders. They form one of the largest occupational groups in America. Going after teachers isn't quite as unwise as would have been going after farmers a century ago, but it is as close as one now gets.   

Wisconsin rarely makes national news unless it involves the Green Bay Packers, Jeffrey Dahmer (that goes back some time), or a natural disaster. Governor Walker put the state front and center in American news in the worst possible way for the Republican Party.     
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« Reply #7496 on: March 06, 2011, 01:56:43 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7497 on: March 07, 2011, 03:30:53 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7498 on: March 07, 2011, 09:12:24 pm »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 11:44:03 am by pbrower2a »

PPP will have polls on Maine (we shall see how the Governor does, whether Senator Olympia Snowe is vulnerable to tea-bag types, and whether the Democrats could have someone capable of winning against her or a Tea-bagger. How would she do as an Independent?

Olympia Snowe could be in 2012 what Blanche Lincoln was in 2010: someone weak with the base and vulnerable in the general election.

I wouldn't make much of the difference between the two Congressional districts of Maine, as President Obama would have to lose about 55-45 nationwide for there to be a difference in how the districts vote.

Missouri is the other, and it of course was the state closest to being an Obama win in 2008 that wasn't. It has an apparently-vulnerable Democratic Senator.  We may also get some taste of the political geography; as Virginia seems to be leaving the South, is Missouri joining it?  
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« Reply #7499 on: March 08, 2011, 10:54:35 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 51%,-1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

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