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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028422 times)
Dgov
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« Reply #7700 on: April 22, 2011, 02:34:17 am »

Wisconsin (Wisconsin Public Radio):

"Still, 52 percent said they approve of Obama. That's up from a 42 percent approval rating last fall."

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/e9c17199b86c4dbcbb158ac816d00f66/WI--Poll-Approval-Ratings/

Though it also gives Walker a 46% Approval rating, which makes him an above-average Governor i think.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7701 on: April 22, 2011, 08:50:09 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

Strongly Approve number has recovered slightly.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7702 on: April 22, 2011, 08:04:14 pm »

Gallup's up to 44-47. Obama seems to be doing about 2 points better across the board.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7703 on: April 23, 2011, 09:12:01 am »
« Edited: April 24, 2011, 12:04:40 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

FIXED

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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #7704 on: April 23, 2011, 09:35:22 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 4%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.



The all-time lowest approval rating for a U.S. President.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #7705 on: April 23, 2011, 10:55:54 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 4%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.



The all-time lowest approval rating for a U.S. President.

hahahah... what happened? Obama announced the USA would become a communist country?
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7706 on: April 23, 2011, 05:04:23 pm »

Obama at 38%


http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/mid/1508/ArticleId/760/Default.aspx
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TXsaff
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« Reply #7707 on: April 23, 2011, 05:38:23 pm »


That's hilarious.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #7708 on: April 23, 2011, 06:18:31 pm »


That's Harris Interactive haha..
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7709 on: April 23, 2011, 11:16:41 pm »


It's an E/G/F/P poll. Pretty useless.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7710 on: April 24, 2011, 12:02:42 am »
« Edited: April 24, 2011, 09:42:53 am by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 4%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.






hahahah... what happened? Obama announced the USA would become a communist country?

No, just a typo which I'll fix, but it wouldn't be the lowest it's +1 from 3.  Smiley
The all-time lowest approval rating for a U.S. President.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7711 on: April 24, 2011, 08:09:37 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 4%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.




No, just a typo which I'll fix, but it wouldn't be the lowest it's +1 from 3.  Smiley
The all-time lowest approval rating for a U.S. President.

hahahah... what happened? Obama announced the USA would become a communist country?

President Obama is now also the official record-holder for re-gaining the most approval of any President in a single day:

He went from 4% approval yesterday to 48% approval today ... Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #7712 on: April 24, 2011, 09:45:08 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.

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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #7713 on: April 24, 2011, 10:22:27 am »

Who and how did someone get 3%?!

I can understand twenty-somethings....but under 20% seems really hard to believe.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #7714 on: April 24, 2011, 02:31:21 pm »

Who and how did someone get 3%?!

I can understand twenty-somethings....but under 20% seems really hard to believe.
It has already been said that it was a typo...
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J. J.
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« Reply #7715 on: April 25, 2011, 09:18:33 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -2.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7716 on: April 25, 2011, 04:33:13 pm »

Gallup's weekly summary is up:

In short, no significant changes.  Obama's up 4 with women, down 3 with men, minimal changes by age, down 3 in the East, up 3 in the West and 2 in the South.

He's down 1 with Whites, up 3 with Non-whites, up 2 with Republicans, and 2 with Liberals.

The only big change is that he's down to 29% with "Pure Independents", a drop of 7 (though this is after a gain of 4 last week, and is not likely an actual drop)

EDIT: forgot link
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7717 on: April 25, 2011, 06:24:07 pm »

Obama down to 41% in Zogby
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J. J.
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« Reply #7718 on: April 26, 2011, 08:42:06 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

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Dgov
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« Reply #7719 on: April 26, 2011, 08:14:27 pm »

Obama at 44-50 Approval by Daily Kos/PPP

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/4/21

Also he's down 46-45 against "Generic GOP" with some amusing cross tabs (Asians break Obama 80-11, in line with blacks, but Hispanics are only 52-39.  Also, Boomers are Obama's best demographic group, winning them by 5, a point more than Generation Y.  Remember that cross tabs have much higher MOE's.  Still kind of funny though).
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J. J.
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« Reply #7720 on: April 26, 2011, 08:31:59 pm »

It looks like the 'bots got it right, again.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7721 on: April 27, 2011, 12:36:35 am »

California - USC / LA Times / GQR (D):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

58% Favorable
39% Unfavorable

http://gqrr.com/articles/2628/6573_USC-LATimes%20Results%20%284.25.11%29.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7722 on: April 27, 2011, 12:38:13 am »

South Carolina (Winthrop University):

43% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804
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« Reply #7723 on: April 27, 2011, 01:54:36 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2011, 02:12:45 am by pbrower2a »

North Carolina gets about as much attention as any state, probably because PPP is located in North Carolina. PPP now shows the President winning against everyone:

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I was going to ignore any poll of state officials made during Tornado Weekend, but the tornadoes have nothing to do with the President. The President would barely win against Mike Huckabee (well within the margin of error) and by about a 4% margin (roughly the margin of error) against Romney.   The move of North Carolina from a tie only with Mike Huckabee to a likely Obama win results from the replacement  of a tie with a bare edge over Huckabee and supplants the judgment of an earlier poll.

Sarah Palin seems to be losing credibility as a campaigner -- fast:

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This is almost as bad as the rejections of her in some western states (CA, CO, NV, NM) with large numbers of people not native speakers of English. If such is how she fares in North Carolina, a state roughly 50-50 in its vote in 2008, then I can imagine her losing nationally on the scale of Landon in 1936, Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, or Mondale in 1984.

California - USC / LA Times / GQR (D):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

58% Favorable
39% Unfavorable

http://gqrr.com/articles/2628/6573_USC-LATimes%20Results%20%284.25.11%29.pdf

Even with the partisan bias it looks reasonable. The most that accepting it would do is to accept it as an update, in which case nothing changes except the date of the latest poll.  


Pollster with which I am unfamiliar, but it changes nothing from January. If South Carolina is still this close, then the GOP is in big trouble in any effort to achieve the greatest goal of Senator Mitch McConnell, which is to make Barack Obama a one-term President.

 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 0
Obama wins against all but  Romney 55
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  



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J. J.
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« Reply #7724 on: April 27, 2011, 09:18:25 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.


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