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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028294 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #7725 on: April 27, 2011, 09:21:56 am »

I don't understand - Obama is only leading Romney by 3 and Huckabee by 1, yet you're giving North Carolina a 5-9.9% shade.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #7726 on: April 27, 2011, 09:22:53 am »

I don't understand - Obama is only leading Romney by 3 and Huckabee by 1, yet you're giving North Carolina a 5-9.9% shade.

You're still reading pbrower2a's posts, after all this time?  Huh
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #7727 on: April 27, 2011, 09:32:04 am »

I don't understand - Obama is only leading Romney by 3 and Huckabee by 1, yet you're giving North Carolina a 5-9.9% shade.

You're still reading pbrower2a's posts, after all this time?  Huh
I have it on ignore, but I do show it's posts from time to time for humor. Hundreds of tl;dr post's later, I still cannot understand it's method is for these maps, and I doubt many can.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #7728 on: April 27, 2011, 11:10:15 am »

I don't understand - Obama is only leading Romney by 3 and Huckabee by 1, yet you're giving North Carolina a 5-9.9% shade.

You're still reading pbrower2a's posts, after all this time?  Huh
I have it on ignore, but I do show it's posts from time to time for humor. Hundreds of tl;dr post's later, I still cannot understand it's method is for these maps, and I doubt many can.

Obama will win Ohio because he is a Christian and because Carter won it in 1976, also Reagan won it in 1980 because he was an athiest but Clinton won it in 1992 and 1996, therefore Bloomberg win win Florida in 2012 because Lieberman will be his running mate and Obama will win Pennsylvania because he supports universal healthcare but McCain won Arizona in 2008 because he has been a Senator there for years but Palin will win Texas narrowly and Obama will be re-elected.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7729 on: April 27, 2011, 05:35:05 pm »

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_0427513.pdf

Big slippage of approval for President Obama. I suppose that some of those who disapprove aren't GOP-friendly, either.

 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 47
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 0
Obama wins against all but  Romney 61
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  




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J. J.
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« Reply #7730 on: April 28, 2011, 09:06:08 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -2.

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Dgov
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« Reply #7731 on: April 28, 2011, 01:54:26 pm »

Obama down to 42-49 in Gallup Today:

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7732 on: April 28, 2011, 06:57:49 pm »

Obama down to 42/53 in PA

Quinnipiac
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7733 on: April 29, 2011, 12:19:34 am »

SurveyUSA's monthly polls for April are out:

California: 46-50

Kansas: 36-61

Oregon: 47-49

Washington: 49-47
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7734 on: April 29, 2011, 12:29:26 am »

New Hampshire (UNH):

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2011_spring_presapp042811.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #7735 on: April 29, 2011, 08:51:53 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.

Could someone get this for the next few days?


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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #7736 on: April 29, 2011, 09:11:23 am »

SUSA polls... a JOKE
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7737 on: April 29, 2011, 10:38:08 am »

SurveyUSA's monthly polls for April are out:

California: 46-50

Kansas: 36-61

Oregon: 47-49

Washington: 49-47

Does SurveyUSA ever poll a different set of states or get different results?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7738 on: April 29, 2011, 10:48:49 am »
« Edited: April 29, 2011, 10:51:56 am by pbrower2a »




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 38
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 51
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 0
Obama wins against all but  Romney 65
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  





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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #7739 on: April 30, 2011, 01:39:59 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Gallup:
Approve: 45% (+2)
Dissaprove 47% (-2)
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J. J.
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« Reply #7740 on: April 30, 2011, 06:52:59 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7741 on: May 01, 2011, 02:13:57 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.



Much above recent showings. We are likely to see some interesting results in statewide polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7742 on: May 01, 2011, 08:54:08 am »

Sunday, May 01, 2011

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

...

The good disaster management in the tornado-affected areas maybe ?

"Government’s Disaster Response Wins Praise"

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/us/01fema.html
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change08
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« Reply #7743 on: May 01, 2011, 09:03:03 am »

Could see some good numbers from the southern states in the next few days. "Rally around the President" effect
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J. J.
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« Reply #7744 on: May 01, 2011, 09:09:11 am »

Sunday, May 01, 2011

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

...

The good disaster management in the tornado-affected areas maybe ?

"Government’s Disaster Response Wins Praise"

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/us/01fema.html

Thanks for getting that.  Please someone else get for me over the next few days.

It just could be a good Obama number working its way through the numbers.  4/29-30 were up a bit. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7745 on: May 01, 2011, 12:08:12 pm »

Gallup is 46-46 today, so let's wait a few days, but it seems that Obama is up from his recent low.
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CJK
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« Reply #7746 on: May 01, 2011, 12:15:21 pm »

Obama Approval Rating April 2011 (Gallup)

44% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 40/46 (April 1979)

Reagan: 42/47 (April 1983)

Bush I: 79/13 (April 1991)

Clinton: 48/43 (April 1995)

Bush II: 70/26 (April 2003)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7747 on: May 01, 2011, 12:29:53 pm »

Sunday, May 01, 2011

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

...

The good disaster management in the tornado-affected areas maybe ?

"Government’s Disaster Response Wins Praise"

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/us/01fema.html

Such is a huge difference from the Dubya-era response to Katrina. Presidents can do nothing to stop tornadoes, but they can respond quickly and effectively to disasters through FEMA if they are so disposed.

Tornadoes scare the hell out of people not in the South, so a swift and effective response to tornadoes in Dixie can have effects farther north -- as in Nebraska and Ohio. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7748 on: May 01, 2011, 12:30:13 pm »

Gallup is 46-46 today, so let's wait a few days, but it seems that Obama is up from his recent low.

Maybe the birth certificate actually helped him?  I mourn for my country if that is the case...
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« Reply #7749 on: May 01, 2011, 08:40:49 pm »

Gallup is 46-46 today, so let's wait a few days, but it seems that Obama is up from his recent low.
While I hope he is, this wouldn't be the first time that both Gallup and Rasmussen had blips in the same direction.
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