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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028416 times)
Reaganfan
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« Reply #8075 on: June 10, 2011, 10:02:30 pm »



Dubya, arguably the worst President that anyone not extremely old could know, got re-elected. If he could be re-elected despite lying to get into a war for profit that had begun to go badly, having little legislative achievement (more than Carter, which isn't saying much) and basically a jobless recovery from the high-tech crash of 2002, then think of what President Obama can do.   

The comparison is deeply flawed.

George Bush had a rather strong economy with unemployment at or under 5% in 2004, especially considering the Dot-Com bubble burst and 9/11. He was also extremely popular during his first term. Even in 2003, his approval rating was at time 20+ points higher than Barack Obama's ever was. (If Obama's so unstoppable in 2011 at 57%, why did liberals think Bush was so weak in 2003 at 70%?)

There is a big difference between 5% and under unemployment and 9% unemployment. Despite all of that, and a weak Democratic nominee, the election was close. If it's 9% unemployment, high gas prices, and Barack Obama vs. a formidable Republican, it's not in the bag at all.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8076 on: June 11, 2011, 12:44:06 am »



Dubya, arguably the worst President that anyone not extremely old could know, got re-elected. If he could be re-elected despite lying to get into a war for profit that had begun to go badly, having little legislative achievement (more than Carter, which isn't saying much) and basically a jobless recovery from the high-tech crash of 2002, then think of what President Obama can do.   

The comparison is deeply flawed.

George Bush had a rather strong economy with unemployment at or under 5% in 2004, especially considering the Dot-Com bubble burst and 9/11. He was also extremely popular during his first term. Even in 2003, his approval rating was at time 20+ points higher than Barack Obama's ever was. (If Obama's so unstoppable in 2011 at 57%, why did liberals think Bush was so weak in 2003 at 70%?)

There is a big difference between 5% and under unemployment and 9% unemployment. Despite all of that, and a weak Democratic nominee, the election was close. If it's 9% unemployment, high gas prices, and Barack Obama vs. a formidable Republican, it's not in the bag at all.

Who will put the bell on the cat?

Who is the formidable Republican?

It would take at least another Ronald Reagan to beat President Obama.

Sure, times are tough -- but the Republicans have no workable solutions. Those 'solutions' would simply enrich elites without creating jobs.  The Republicans in Congress  are extremely unpopular -- so voting in a Republican President will seem folly to more people.

We have had the worst economic meltdown since 1929-1933. Such a meltdown precludes any quick and easy recovery.  There's just no possibility of a boom of any kind. The high gas prices have no obvious cause in politics.  Very simply, while Americans are basically replacing cars as they age, the Chinese, Indians, and Russians are putting new ones on the road. The worldwide demand for petroleum is rising, and we Americans can really do nothing about it.

Real estate has been overbuilt for at least five years. We have a glut of housing on the market. It will be ten years before there will be another housing boom.  Retailing is saturated, so don't expect any new shopping malls to pop up.  Any boom in construction is going to be on government projects like high-speed rail -- except that politicians owned by Big Oil have rejected it because it is somehow better that people pay more for and use more petroleum.   

Sure, President Obama has been less than wildly popular. But where are the usual signs of failure? A lack of legislative achievements? He got those early. Scandal? How good is your crystal ball? Military and diplomatic disasters?  Is he capricious, unreliable, or dishonest? So far...

Americans are fussier than they used to be about politics. After eight years of a disaster of a President, we shouldn't give so much leeway as we did with Dubya, who lied to get us into a costly and bungled war, who sponsored a corrupt boom that could only collapse, and who even mishandled a natural disaster. The current President is a stickler for legal formalities, procedural niceties, and historical precedents.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8077 on: June 11, 2011, 12:47:28 am »

Oregon (Davis, Hibbits and Midghall - Oregon Media Survey):

52% Approve
44% Disapprove

(Governor John Kitzhaber)

45% Approve
34% Disapprove

http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/oregon_media_partners--annot--june.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8078 on: June 11, 2011, 02:04:37 am »

Oregon, 52-44 for the President in approval:

http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/oregon_media_partners--annot--june.pdf


Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  







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J. J.
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« Reply #8079 on: June 11, 2011, 02:00:27 pm »
« Edited: June 12, 2011, 08:38:24 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.

There could still be a bad sample in the sample.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8080 on: June 11, 2011, 05:30:20 pm »

I am missing the SUSA numbers in May
for WA CA OR KS
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8081 on: June 12, 2011, 12:37:41 am »

I am missing the SUSA numbers in May
for WA CA OR KS

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.msg2905309#msg2905309
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J. J.
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« Reply #8082 on: June 12, 2011, 08:39:55 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.

If there is a bad sample, it should be out by tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8083 on: June 12, 2011, 10:44:13 am »

NH back to green:

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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8084 on: June 12, 2011, 02:41:35 pm »

Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Approve: 46% (u)
Disapprove: 44% (-1)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8085 on: June 13, 2011, 08:59:53 am »

North Carolina, again, PPP. Approval did slip below 50%, but still positive.

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Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  








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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8086 on: June 13, 2011, 09:01:22 am »

Please color NH green, thx.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8087 on: June 13, 2011, 09:03:51 am »


Got a new poll from New Hampshire? Nevada and Pennsylvania are probably in the same category.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8088 on: June 13, 2011, 09:07:03 am »


Got a new poll from New Hampshire? Nevada and Pennsylvania are probably in the same category.

Yes, 2 posts above yours in the graphic (49-44).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8089 on: June 13, 2011, 09:16:40 am »


Got a new poll from New Hampshire? Nevada and Pennsylvania are probably in the same category.

Yes, 2 posts above yours in the graphic (49-44).

With pleasure! Thank you!

No way can Mitt Romney win either Nevada, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania if the President's approval is  positive -- or near or above 50% in either of those States. Arizona, Georgia, or Missouri -- maybe.


Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 36
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 39
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  
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anvi
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« Reply #8090 on: June 13, 2011, 09:51:00 am »

Is there any raw data available for most recent state-by-state approval-disapproval numbers that can be found in one list?
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J. J.
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« Reply #8091 on: June 13, 2011, 10:11:53 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

Definite erosion in Obama's numbers.  This is the first time he's hit 40 in strongly disapprove since April.

My guess is that it is economy related.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8092 on: June 13, 2011, 10:17:06 am »

Is there any raw data available for most recent state-by-state approval-disapproval numbers that can be found in one list?

Rasmussen used to offer plenty of statewide polling -- but not now. PPP offers the bulk. Quinnipiac University has good polling, but only on a few (but important) states. Occasionally some university or media poll comes out for a state that doesn't get polled often. SurveyUSA seems to poll the same states, but the results almost never jibe with anyone else's polls.

Gallup mostly does nationwide polls that say nothing about individual states -- except that one can leave certain things to the imagination. If the President has an approval rating of 42% nationwide, then he would probably lose a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania. If his approval is about 50%, then he wins both and has a chance to win Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. If his approval is about 55% he wins all five aforesaid states and might pick up Kentucky and Texas.   

The map that I have, flawed as it may be, is modeled after the practices of electoralvote.com which goes into hibernation as soon as the last Senate or House seat is decided. My map probably goes into hibernation when electoralvote.com goes back into action.   
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8093 on: June 13, 2011, 04:05:08 pm »

Obama down to 43%

http://www.zogby.com/
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« Reply #8094 on: June 13, 2011, 04:10:45 pm »

...in a Zogby poll.
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« Reply #8095 on: June 13, 2011, 05:03:12 pm »


I swear you've posted this exact message, always based on a Zogby "poll",  dozens of times.
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« Reply #8096 on: June 14, 2011, 01:35:55 am »

Yes, and its apt. Zogby polls are typically horrible at best.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8097 on: June 14, 2011, 10:20:11 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

Definite erosion in Obama's numbers, but not necessarily in free fall. 
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« Reply #8098 on: June 14, 2011, 11:39:59 am »

Well Obama and his family seem content with him being a one term president as reported by Ann Curry; and perhaps a majority of Americans as well.  I think he tried to do some big historical things like Health Care but was basically in over his head in handling the economy.  He was obviously the best choice over McCain, but I think the GOP will nominate someone like Romney who has the leadership and vision for improving the economy and employment.  Some of the reasons for failure are cyclical, but I don't think Obama's ever claimed to be an expert or leader on economic matters, his calling card was international affairs and the opposition to the Iraq War which McCain favored.  Obama's never claimed to understand blue collar life or small town America, maybe he can change his image over the next 12 months, but I don't think so. 
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« Reply #8099 on: June 14, 2011, 05:53:26 pm »

Respectfully, a few brief replies.

Presidents should be willing to make politically costly decisions if they believe these decisions are truly the right things to do.  There are actually more important things in the world than any president serving two terms.  Though president Bush '41 only served one term, he did so honorably, and I'm very glad it was him at that helm when the Cold War came to an end and Hussein invaded Kuwait.  If guaranteed issue survives in the health insurance industry in our future, I think lots of people will be glad Obama was there to insist on it during his term in the future.

It is simply not true that Obama has never held a blue collar job and has never worked in the private sector--he has done both.  He has also devoted a significant portion of his young life to helping poor people, giving up a much higher-wage position to do so.  Find me a Republican who has done anything like that, and I promise I will listen attentively to anything they have to say.

I come from a small town and lived there till my mid-twenties, and now live in a small town again, so I do understand and, more, am a fan of small-town American people and life.  But there is a reason small-town America is small-town America; not too many Americans live in small towns.  People have to understand a hell of a lot more than small-town life in order to be effective presidents.

It may be the case that Obama is not up to the task of prompting a quick economic recovery, and his legislative record may indeed demonstrate that.  But not one single Republican in the current field is up to that task either, and their respective records demonstrate that just as well.

To borrow yet another phrase from a much better Atlas poster than myself:
The End.
 

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