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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028651 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #8125 on: June 15, 2011, 12:50:19 pm »

I wish that Quinnipiac would "do" Indiana some time. That state has about the most mysterious politics.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8126 on: June 15, 2011, 12:57:26 pm »

I wish that Quinnipiac would "do" Indiana some time. That state has about the most mysterious politics.

Quinnipiac only polls CT, FL, NJ, NY, OH and PA and some swing states a few months before the election.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #8127 on: June 15, 2011, 02:49:20 pm »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism.  That can be expected from someone who never governed a large entity or served in any executive capacity.  He tried to be Reagan without the management experience.  I wonder if the "enthusiasm gap" has trickled down to his supporters, it certainly seems the enthusiasm gap is missing from his closest family members, his wife and children - if they don't want him to be president, how can the rest of the country want him to be president.  I really think unless the GOP nominates a geriatric, they will win in a Landslide, similar to the reverse of 2008.  The issues have changed from foreign policy to domestic policy. 

As for Obama's upbringing or perspective, he has to win the votes of the suburban white blue collar man and woman.  These are factory workers, truckers, middle class voters who don't want big govt, don't want high taxes, and want a president who feels their pain, sort of like Bill Clinton and ranch cowboy Dubya Bush.  That's the dichotomy between urban life and suburban life, and sometimes its along racial lines, but Obama needs to over come that to win re-election.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8128 on: June 15, 2011, 03:28:39 pm »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism.  That can be expected from someone who never governed a large entity or served in any executive capacity.  He tried to be Reagan without the management experience.  I wonder if the "enthusiasm gap" has trickled down to his supporters, it certainly seems the enthusiasm gap is missing from his closest family members, his wife and children - if they don't want him to be president, how can the rest of the country want him to be president.  I really think unless the GOP nominates a geriatric, they will win in a Landslide, similar to the reverse of 2008.  The issues have changed from foreign policy to domestic policy. 

He now has that management experience, having done about the biggest managerial job that there is. GOP landslide? You must have been looking at the color scheme and misreading it. Enthusiasm gap? The campaign has yet  to start.

It's the Republicans who are enduring the enthusiasm gap. It is going to hurt them badly.

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Dubya feels their pain? I am laughing so hard that I could vomit. People want better lives, and they don't care whether they get it through "big government". Big Business has failed them badly, as have its stooges in the Reactionary Party. High gas prices (and that hurts everyone not invested in or working in oil) have not resulted from any legislation but instead through the behavior of free-market speculators. No legislation can stop speculators from cornering the market -- and if anything, those speculators have good friends in the GOP.

Nobody likes high taxes. But they don't want the consequences of failed government -- poor public services or the privatization of public services from a public trust into a monopolistic gouge, either. Sure, President Obama does not relate well to blue-collar white workers, as shown in 2008. But he won without them in 2008 and can obviously win again as the polls now show that he can.

He is not the new Bill Clinton; he can't be. He's not from the culture that Bill Clinton came from.  He is far better than Dubya, that "ranch cowboy" who certainly treated the common man like cattle.

 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8129 on: June 15, 2011, 03:36:02 pm »

North Carolina (Civitas)Sad

51% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/2011/may-2011-poll-results
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J. J.
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« Reply #8130 on: June 15, 2011, 05:25:29 pm »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8131 on: June 15, 2011, 06:33:55 pm »

Obama at 43%

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20110615.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8132 on: June 16, 2011, 12:27:14 am »

WSJ/NBC Poll:

49% Approve
46% Disapprove

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8133 on: June 16, 2011, 01:01:13 am »


But he would still beat all Republican challengers.

The Republicans are doing practically nothing to satisfy voters other than the base.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8134 on: June 16, 2011, 01:55:29 am »

What has to be pretty scary for moderate GOPers (all 12 of them Tongue) is that in order to win their primary - the candidates have to run so far to the right on economic and social issues that you have to wonder how on EARTH?! they manage to pull that back to present a case that appeals to those groups who the GOP actually needs to win... women? latinos? Independents?

Which is why people can say "I'm not happy with the way Obama has performed so far... but then they look at the GOP options and think... "yeah, Obama's not that bad"...
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J. J.
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« Reply #8135 on: June 16, 2011, 09:37:00 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.

Erosion, and it is the strongly disapprove numbers that are showing the most change.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #8136 on: June 16, 2011, 11:27:11 am »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.

I think Obama has mentally checked out, he said his wife and children are happy with only 1 term.  Unless he starts smoking again maybe he'll exhibit more energy on the campaign trail. 
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Oakvale
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« Reply #8137 on: June 16, 2011, 01:31:47 pm »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.

I think Obama has mentally checked out, he said his wife and children are happy with only 1 term.  Unless he starts smoking again maybe he'll exhibit more energy on the campaign trail. 

u mad
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Dgov
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« Reply #8138 on: June 16, 2011, 03:39:24 pm »

Obama down 5 to generic Republican in Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148076/2012-Voter-Preferences-Obama-Republican-Remain-Close.aspx

Though they do point out polls from June of the year before elections generally don't have good predicting values for the eventual result.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8139 on: June 16, 2011, 04:07:59 pm »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.

I think Obama has mentally checked out, he said his wife and children are happy with only 1 term.  Unless he starts smoking again maybe he'll exhibit more energy on the campaign trail. 

You say more about yourself than about the President. Such is projection.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8140 on: June 16, 2011, 04:17:14 pm »

PPP will be polling Florida and Montana next week. Florida is of course about as definitive a swing state as there is, and Montana is just simply intriguing.

Michigan, anyone?

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?
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« Reply #8141 on: June 16, 2011, 04:32:12 pm »

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?
How about Pennsylvania next time?
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8142 on: June 16, 2011, 05:09:54 pm »

IN and OR would be interesting too
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8143 on: June 16, 2011, 06:04:51 pm »

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?
How about Pennsylvania next time?

Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania and showed that the state no longer looks as if it is slipping away from the President.  Oregon was polled recently, too.

Indiana would be the gem of states for polling. I'd like to know  whether Mitch Daniels has the same problems in maintaining approval that governors of Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin have in gaining it. In view of all the talk that some posters have on Mitch Daniels as a potential President... whether he would win his 'own' state like John Thune or Jim DeMint, or whether he would lose 'his' state like Michelle Bachmann or Tim Pawlenty. I'd like to know whether Senator Lugar faces and is up to a primary challenge by Tea Party types. Above all, I would like to know whether my cautious estimate that 2008 was a freakish scenario in which everything went wrong for the Republican Party -- once -- or whether Indiana is simply the last state in the northeastern quadrant of the United States  to go from Republican to Democratic.   

But -- Indiana bans the robot polls that PPP and Rasmussen use.  Polls of Indiana were rare in 2008, and the last poll that anyone had of Indiana was in the autumn of 2010. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #8144 on: June 16, 2011, 08:47:29 pm »

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?
How about Pennsylvania next time?

Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania and showed that the state no longer looks as if it is slipping away from the President. 

I think it showed it was close.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8145 on: June 16, 2011, 11:09:58 pm »

This will be posted, if at all, with the letter "S" as in "suspect". It likely overrates approvals for both Governor Rick Perry and President Barack Obama, and it is slow to be released.

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I don't really trust any poll involving Texas.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8146 on: June 16, 2011, 11:42:50 pm »

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?
How about Pennsylvania next time?

Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania and showed that the state no longer looks as if it is slipping away from the President. 

I think it showed it was close.

It was as close as it could get -- dead even at 48%. But that is before any campaigning, and we all know what an effective campaigner President Obama is and how good a campaign apparatus he had in 2008 -- probably enough to add about 6% to the pre-campaign approval rating to get to the likely vote share.

He would probably win about 54% of the popular vote in Pennsylvania, which is close to what he won in 2008 -- close enough that few would know the difference.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8147 on: June 16, 2011, 11:59:57 pm »

The range of polling results for Texas is... well, as big as Texas. I may have a Texas-sized whopper here. I'll show the results of the Texas Lyceum poll and then what I really think of its reliability. Basically Texas goes from the sure thing for Republicans to "Nobody really knows".

Texas, if close, implies that President Obama has about a Clinton-scale landslide if he loses the state and about an Eisenhower-scale landslide if he wins it.  Such is the meaning of 38 electoral votes.

Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 26
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8148 on: June 17, 2011, 12:18:10 am »

Indeed, the new TX Lyceum Poll has Obama above 50%, but the question wording is not really "Approve/Disapprove". It asks:

How well do you think Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job, somewhat poor job, or very poor job?

51% Very Good/Somewhat Good
48% Very Poor/Somewhat Poor

From May 24 through May 31, 2011, The Texas Lyceum conducted a statewide telephone survey. The survey utilized a stratified probability sample design, with respondents being randomly selected at the level of the household. On average, respondents completed the interview in 17 minutes. Approximately 5,000 records were drawn to yield 707 completed interviews.

The final data set is weighted by race/ethnicity, age and gender to achieve representativeness. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.69 percentage points.
Some numbers and analysis were produced with a screen for likely voters.

Voters were deemed “likely” if they indicated that they were registered to vote, indicated that they were “somewhat” or “extremely” interested in politics, and indicated that they had voted in “almost every” or “every” election in the last 2-3 years. This screen produced 303 likely voters, 43% of the full sample and 77% of registered voters. The margin of error for the survey of likely voters is +/- 5.63 percentage points.

Link
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J. J.
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« Reply #8149 on: June 17, 2011, 10:28:04 pm »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.

I think Obama has mentally checked out, he said his wife and children are happy with only 1 term.  Unless he starts smoking again maybe he'll exhibit more energy on the campaign trail. 

You say more about yourself than about the President. Such is projection.

Why did you attribute that quote to me, since I called the race wide open and doubt that Obama is resigned to anything at this point?
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